Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

Trend reversal in Childlessness in Sweden

Lotta Persson

Forecast InstituteStatistics Sweden

Lisbon 28-30 April 2010

2389Vill du avs1

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The model for fertility assumptions

Group % 2009

Swedish-born 77Foreign-born

Nordic countries 2 EU-countries 3 remaining Europe 4 countries with high HDI 2 countries with medium HDI 10 countries with low HDI 2

Assumptions for 7 groups

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Different methods

• Swedish-born: assumptions on the probability to give birth to the first, second, third or fourth (or more) child for each age and cohort

• Foreign-born: The age specific fertility is projected forward

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Method for Swedish-born

First birth incidence rates for cohorts born 1970, 1975 and 1980

1970

1975 1980

5

Method for Swedish-born

Fertility for cohort born in 1975

Observed Predicted

First child

Second

child

Third child

Fourth child

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Development of childlessness

Percent childless

17 %

15 %

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Development of childlessnessSwedish born

Percent childless

1960

1965

19701975

1977

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Rapid educational expansion

Educational level at age 30

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960 1965 1970 1975Cohort

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary education < 3

Tertiary education > 3

Year

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

Mean age at first birth

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Educational level and childlessness

1960

1965

1970

1975

1977

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Possible reasons for the trend reversal in childlessness

• Increased possibility to get infecundity treatments (IVF treatments increased from 3 000 in 1991 to 12 000 in 2007).

• Survey in 2009 shows that it is common to have used aid to have children (40 percent of those who had their child after age 34 had used aid).

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Aid to have children – more common among women with higher education

05

101520253035404550

Primary school

Secondary school

Tertiary education

-27 years

28-33 years

34-40 years

Share of women who used aid to have children by educational level

and age at birth of first child

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More positive attitude towards having children among women with higher education

Share of childless cohabiting or married women who answer “yes” to

the question: Do you think you will have children in the future?” by

age and educational level

and age at birth of first child

0102030405060708090

100

Primary school

Secondary school

Tertiary education

-27 years

28-33 years

34-40 years

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Future development?

Percent childless

Thank you for listening!

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How many of them will be childless in the

future?