John.scott

John H. Scott NASA/JSC/EP3 Houston TX 77058 USA, (281) 483-3136, [email protected] 9 February 2010

NASA Project Management Challenge 2010

Going SouthLessons Learned from an Historic Project Failure

John H. ScottChief, Energy Conversion BranchNASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center/EP3Houston, TX 77058 [email protected]

Used with Permission

mailto:[email protected]�



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Project 1.0SRR1879

Project 0.1Complete

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1914

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AAC

US Flag



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French Flag

Panama Canal Authority



$B2008

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0

50

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ec-7

7

Jan-

78

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78

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-78

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8

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-80

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Architecture Committeeand SRR

ParisMay 1879



0

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ec-7

7

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1869 Suez CanalProject Office: Compagnie universelle du Canal maritime de Suez (Ferdinand de Lesseps)Prime Contractor: Couvreux, Hersent et Cie

1856 EAC = Fr 162 M1869 AAC = Fr 433 M (US$ 173 B 2008)D/E at complete = 0.5

U. S. Navy

Archives MAE



0

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1869 Suez CanalProject Office: Compagnie universelle du Canal maritime de Suez (Ferdinand de Lesseps)Prime Contractor: Couvreux, Hersent et Cie


L’Ecole Polytechnique“Pour la Patrie, les Sciences, et la Gloire”

Ecole Polytechnique Ecole Polytechnique



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1869 Suez CanalProject Office: Compagnie universelle du Canal

maritime de Suez (Ferdinand de Lesseps)Prime Contractor: Couvreux, Hersent et Cie


…pour le bien de l’humanitéFitzgerald ,The Great Canal at Suez, 1876

Fitzgerald ,The Great Canal at Suez, 1876



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1869 Suez Canal

1871 La Débâcle

Sedan Paris Commune

Illustrated London News, 1871

M. Luce, Une rue de Paris (La Commune), 1871, Musée d’Orsay



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1869 Suez Canal1871 La Débâcle

1873 Panic of 1873

Bellew, New York Daily Graphic,1873

Bokelmann, Volksbank kurz von dem Krach, 1873Bildarchiv Preußischer Kulturbesitz

“Panic….cleans up Wall Street”



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Suez Stock Index

Paris Stock Exchange Index (CAC 40)

Degas, Portraits à la Bourse, 1879, Musée d’Orsay

Inde

x V

alue



0

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ec-7

7

Jan-

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Jan-

80

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80

Mar

-80

Apr

-80

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-80

Jun-

80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

Oct

-80

Nov

-80


Suez Stock Index


Congès Int., Compte Rendu, 1879

Inde

x V

alue



0

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ec-7

7

Jan-

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-78

Jan-

79

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9

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-79

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79

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-79

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-79

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-79

Jan-

80

Feb-

80

Mar

-80

Apr

-80

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-80

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80

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0

Aug

-80

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80

Oct

-80

Nov

-80


Suez Stock Index


Inde

x V

alue




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ec-7

7

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Jan-

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-80

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Aug

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80

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Suez Stock Index


Wyse

Inde

x V

alue




0

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Jan-

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Suez Stock Index


Inde

x V

alue




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ec-7

7

Jan-

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Jan-

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9

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Jan-

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80

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-80

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-80

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-80

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80

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0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

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-80

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-80


Suez Stock Index


SRR Design47,000,000 m3

12 yearsFr 1.2 B

Inde

x V

alue




0

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ec-7

7

Jan-

78

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-78

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78

Jul-7

8

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-78

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78

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Jan-

79

Feb-

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9

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-79

Jan-

80

Feb-

80

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-80

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-80

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-80

Jun-

80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

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80

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-80

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Suez Stock Index


SRR EACFr 1.2 B12 years

47,000,000 m3

Inde

x V

alue



0

50

100

150

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ec-7

7

Jan-

78

Feb-

78

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-78

Apr

-78

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-78

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78

Jul-7

8

Aug

-78

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78

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-78

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-78

Jan-

79

Feb-

79

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-79

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Jul-7

9

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-79

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79

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-79

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-79

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-79

Jan-

80

Feb-

80

Mar

-80

Apr

-80

May

-80

Jun-

80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

Oct

-80

Nov

-80

Suez Stock Index



47,000,000 m3

SRR 1st IPOFr 400 M

Inde

x V

alue



0

50

100

150

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ec-7

7

Jan-

78

Feb-

78

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-78

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-78

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-78

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8

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-78

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78

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-78

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-78

Jan-

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Feb-

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-79

Jan-

80

Feb-

80

Mar

-80

Apr

-80

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-80

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80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

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-80

Nov

-80

Suez Stock Index



47,000,000 m3

SRR 1st IPOFr 400 M

PDR

Inde

x V

alue



0

50

100

150

200

250

300D

ec-7

7

Jan-

78

Feb-

78

Mar

-78

Apr

-78

May

-78

Jun-

78

Jul-7

8

Aug

-78

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78

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-78

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-78

Jan-

79

Feb-

79

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79

Jul-7

9

Aug

-79

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79

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-79

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Jan-

80

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80

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-80

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-80

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-80

Jun-

80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

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-80

Nov

-80

Suez Stock Index



47,000,000 m3

SRR 1st IPOFr 400 M

PDR

Cie Universelle Bulletin du Canal, 1880

PDR Design75,000,000 m3

8 years



0

50

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ec-7

7

Jan-

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Feb-

78

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8

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0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

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-80

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-80

Suez Stock Index



47,000,000 m3

SRR 1st IPOFr 400 M

PDR

PDR Design75,000,000 m3

8 years




0

50

100

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ec-7

7

Jan-

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Feb-

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-78

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-78

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-78

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8

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-78

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78

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-78

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-78

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-78

Jan-

79

Feb-

79

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-79

Apr

-79

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79

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9

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79

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Jan-

80

Feb-

80

Mar

-80

Apr

-80

May

-80

Jun-

80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

Oct

-80

Nov

-80

Suez Stock Index



47,000,000 m3

SRR 1st IPOFr 400 M

PDR

PDR EACFr 843 M

8 years75,000,000 m3

Inde

x V

alue



0

50

100

150

200

250

300D

ec-7

7

Jan-

78

Feb-

78

Mar

-78

Apr

-78

May

-78

Jun-

78

Jul-7

8

Aug

-78

Sep-

78

Oct

-78

Nov

-78

Dec

-78

Jan-

79

Feb-

79

Mar

-79

Apr

-79

May

-79

Jun-

79

Jul-7

9

Aug

-79

Sep-

79

Oct

-79

Nov

-79

Dec

-79

Jan-

80

Feb-

80

Mar

-80

Apr

-80

May

-80

Jun-

80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

Oct

-80

Nov

-80

Suez Stock Index



47,000,000 m3

SRR 1st IPOFr 400 M

PDR

PDR EACFr 843 M

8 years75,000,000 m3

DeLessepsFr 646 M

C, H et Cie

Fr 530 MInde

x V

alue



0

50

100

150

200

250

300D

ec-7

7

Jan-

78

Feb-

78

Mar

-78

Apr

-78

May

-78

Jun-

78

Jul-7

8

Aug

-78

Sep-

78

Oct

-78

Nov

-78

Dec

-78

Jan-

79

Feb-

79

Mar

-79

Apr

-79

May

-79

Jun-

79

Jul-7

9

Aug

-79

Sep-

79

Oct

-79

Nov

-79

Dec

-79

Jan-

80

Feb-

80

Mar

-80

Apr

-80

May

-80

Jun-

80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

Oct

-80

Nov

-80

Suez Stock Index



47,000,000 m3

SRR 1st IPOFr 400 M

PDR

PDR EACFr 843 M

8 years75,000,000 m3

DeLessepsFr 646 M

C, H et Cie

Fr 530 M

IPO EACFr 600 M

2nd IPOFr 300 M

Inde

x V

alue



0

50

100

150

200

250

300D

ec-7

7

Jan-

78

Feb-

78

Mar

-78

Apr

-78

May

-78

Jun-

78

Jul-7

8

Aug

-78

Sep-

78

Oct

-78

Nov

-78

Dec

-78

Jan-

79

Feb-

79

Mar

-79

Apr

-79

May

-79

Jun-

79

Jul-7

9

Aug

-79

Sep-

79

Oct

-79

Nov

-79

Dec

-79

Jan-

80

Feb-

80

Mar

-80

Apr

-80

May

-80

Jun-

80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

Oct

-80

Nov

-80

Suez Stock Index



47,000,000 m3

SRR 1st IPOFr 400 M

PDR

IPO EACFr 600 M

2nd IPOFr 300 M

Inde

x V

alue



0

50

100

150

200

250

300D

ec-7

7

Jan-

78

Feb-

78

Mar

-78

Apr

-78

May

-78

Jun-

78

Jul-7

8

Aug

-78

Sep-

78

Oct

-78

Nov

-78

Dec

-78

Jan-

79

Feb-

79

Mar

-79

Apr

-79

May

-79

Jun-

79

Jul-7

9

Aug

-79

Sep-

79

Oct

-79

Nov

-79

Dec

-79

Jan-

80

Feb-

80

Mar

-80

Apr

-80

May

-80

Jun-

80

Jul-8

0

Aug

-80

Sep-

80

Oct

-80

Nov

-80

Suez Stock Index



47,000,000 m3

SRR 1st IPOFr 400 M

PDR

IPO EACFr 600 M

2nd IPOFr 300 M

Inde

x V

alue

Cie Universelle ,1880

Panama HQ 1881 Panama HQ 2007



Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89


0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

ATP

Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

ATP

Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4

Wyse, Le Canal de Panama, 1886





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

ATP

Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4

C. J. Finlay Trabajos Selectos, 1912





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

ATP

Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4

C. J. Finlay Trabajos Selectos

Bibliothèque National de France

Thomas Nast, 1881





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

ATP CDR

Comp. Univer. Bull. du Canal

Cost Baseline





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

ATP CDR

CDR Design120,000,000 m3

8 yearsFr 600 M

. Le Génie Civil, 1883





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

ATP CDR


CDR Design


8 yearsFr 600 M


Cie Universelle,1883, NACP RG 185.3





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

ATP CDR



8 yearsFr 600 M






0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP


BCWS

Plan

Cost Baseline

2






0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP


BCWS

Plan

Cost Baseline

2

Bigelow, The Panama Canal, 1886

Le Génie Civil, 1887





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP


BCWS

Plan

Cost Baseline

2






0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP


BCWS

Plan

Cost Baseline

2

Debt:Equity = 0.4





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWPCost Baseline

2

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9



0

50

100

150

200

250

300




0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9 1.4

Cost Baseline



0

50

100

150

200

250

300




0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP


Cost Baseline





0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP


Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.5




0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP


Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.5

Rousseau, Rapport, Ch. des Députés, Tome III, 1893.




0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP


Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.5

“Reconciliation of the estimate of expenses remaining to complete the canal with the funds which the Company plans to obtain to cover them no longer allows hope that, barring major modifications to the approved design, such funds will be sufficient to take the project to completion on time.”

Rousseau, Rapport, Ch. des Députés, Tome III, 1893.




0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP


Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.5




0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP


Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.5

DCDRCie Universelle,1888, NACP RG 185.3




0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP


Cost Baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.5

DCDR

DCDR Design76,000,000 m3

9 yearsFr 1.6 B

Lock#10

Lock#9Lock

#8

Lock#7







0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP

DCDR

Cost Re-baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.5


9 yearsFr 1.6 B







0

50

100

150

200

250

300


0

1

2

3

4

5


Finance)

Mm3

1

2

BFr0.4

0.8

1.2Earned Value)

Monthly Excavation)

Fever Casualties)

Head Count Index

3

Rainy Season

Market Index

Panama Stock Index

Death Index

CDRATP

Plan

Actual

BCWSACWP

BCWP

DCDR

Cost Re-baseline

Debt:Equity = 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.6 3.5




PDR 1880

Sea Level

+26 m

+49 m

Sea Level

Evolution of the Culebra Cut

CDR 1883

Delta CDR 1887



PDR 1880

Sea Level

+26 m

+49 m

Sea Level


CDR 1883

US ICC PDR 1906

Delta CDR 1887



PDR 1880

As Built 1914

Sea Level

+26 m

+49 m

Sea Level


CDR 1883

US ICC PDR 1906

Delta CDR 1887

+26 m

Sea Level



70

Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91


Mm3

BFr

1

2

3

1

2

3

ATP CDR DCDR

Cost Baseline



71



Mm3

BFr

1

2

3

1

2

3

ATP CDR DCDR Complete

Cost Baseline



Acknowledgments

“The only thing new in the world is the history you don’t know.”Harry S. Truman

JohnsonSpace Center

John.scott

Technology

Transcript of John.scott