John Snelling, ANZ - Market developments - Outlook and impacts for Galilee projects

Market Developments

Galilee Basin Coal & Energy Conference

John SnellingExecutive Director - Corporate Advisory

25 November 2013

22

Agenda

Macro

Coal

Finance

3

Macro

4

A better looking 2014

• We expect commodities to firm towards the end of the year and improve in 2014 as comfort around the Chinese demand outlook and improving growth elsewhere sets a positive backdrop for prices

• We think prices bottomed in June this year, with official Chinese PMI data basing and Chinese government stimulus and inventory restocking re-emerging

• Investment positions look more encouraging with commodity index holdings and US commodity futures markets trending higher over the third quarter

• That said price gains have been tepid and look more like relief rallies and short covering rather than fresh buying. Signs of more consistent positive data in China would improve the sentiment triggering long investors to return

• The US news flow will continue to provide a volatile backdrop with better economic data offset by QE exit chatter. The reverse would be better, with dull data pushing back the timing on QE tapering

• Inventory levels still look tight, which flags the need for further restocking - particularly in iron ore and copper. Coal and oil stocks look higher

• Most of the base metals and coal look oversold, while iron ore and oil look fair value. Precious metals looks vulnerable while US bond yields continue to rise

• Our preferred exposure in 2014 are base metals and energy markets which will be more exposed to positive demand-side dynamics. The bulks will lag, with increasing supply and or inventory overhang holding back better price gains

5

Another difficult year for commodity markets in 2013, but 2014 will be better – base metals and oil the outperformers

Source: ANZ Research

2012 2013F

Average Annual Percentage Change

2014F2011

74

51

39

28

25

23

19

17

14

12

10

5

2

0 20 40 60 80

Silver

Coking Coal

Brent Crude

Gold

Average

Thermal Coal

WTI Crude

Copper

Iron Ore

Lead

Aluminium

Nickel

Zinc

6

1

(1)

(10)

(11)

(11)

(13)

(14)

(16)

(22)

(23)

(24)

(27)

(40) (20) 0 20 40

Gold

Brent Crude

WTI Crude

Copper

Zinc

Silver

Average

Lead

Aluminium

Thermal Coal

Iron Ore

Nickel

Coking Coal

5

4

3

(2)

(3)

(8)

(8)

(8)

(12)

(13)

(15)

(21)

(25)

(40) (20) 0 20 40

WTI Crude

Lead

Iron Ore

Zinc

Brent Crude

Copper

Average

Aluminium

Thermal Coal

Nickel

Gold

Silver

Coking Coal

12

9

9

8

8

6

6

5

3

2

2

1

(6)

(40) (20) 0 20 40

Zinc

Nickel

WTI Crude

Copper

Aluminium

Coking Coal

Lead

Average

Brent Crude

Thermal Coal

Silver

Gold

Iron Ore

6

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13(2.5)(2.0)(1.5)(1.0)(0.5)0.00.51.01.52.0

ANZ CCI ANZ Global Inventory Pulse (RHS)

6 mth % dev. from 12mth trend

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

US EU China

Points

expansion

contraction

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N

Brent Oil

Copper

Iron Ore

Rebar Steel

Thermal Coal

Coking Coal

% return from 1 Jan 2012

2012 2013

bottoming in June

(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

US Developed China Emerging

contribution to global growth

foreast


ANZ Global GDP Growth Forecasts Commodity Price Performances

ANZ CCI & ANZ Global Inventory Pulse Global PMIs

Global growth will bottom in 2013 at 3% before rebounding to 4% in 2015

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 131.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0Oil Other EnergyPrecious Metals Base MetalsAgs SoftsUS 10y Bond (RHS)

USD billion %

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Long

Short

Net Position (Long-Short)

USD billion

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Long

Short


USD billion

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Long

Short


USD billion


Investment Fund Commodity Positions

This is showing up in tepid investment fund activity– total funds in global commodity indices have gained only a modest US$15b or 6.5% since June after a US$140b or 37% sell-off in the first half of 2013

CFTC Non-Commercial Gold Positions

CFTC Non-Commercial Oil Positions CFTC Non-Commercial Copper Positions

8

100

200

300

400

500

600

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

ANZ-CCI Shanghai Composite (RHS)

Index points Index points

China play

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Official Property Price Index ANZ Property Price Index

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

China GDP Power Production Growth

y/y %

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

J F M A M J J A S O N DGov't Exp (2012) Gov't Exp (2013) Target

%


ANZ CCI & Shanghai Composite China Yearly House Price Change

China GDP and Power Production Growth Government Target Expenditure 2012/13

A choppy to weaker Chinese equity market has flagged softer commodity demand conditions – but the industry data has been a lot better, while government stimulus should gather pace towards the end of the year

9

134

106 103

57

36 3323 19 18 18

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ther

mal

Coa

l

Bau

xite

Cok

ing

Coa

l

Iron

Ore

Nic

kel

Cop

per

Silv

er

Gol

d

Lead

&Z

inc

Plat

inum

Years

55

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Real GDP per capita (US$)

India

CopperSteel

Aluminium

Coal

China

GasIntensity per capita

25

69

1618

2222

2327

2930

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

IndiaBrazilChinaWorld

AustraliaUKUS

CanadaSouth Korea

TaiwanGermany

Japan

Min level for steel intensive exporting countries

Min level for infrastructure and housingdevelopment in a developed economy

(4)(2)

02

46

810

1214

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Consumption Investment Net Exports GDP, y/y

y/y %

F F F F

ANZ Forecasts

China’s long term appeal is still very much in tact – steel stock supply is still well below developed world levels, while modest mine life for many commodities suggests prices will need to stay high

Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research

Global Steel Stock Inventory (1950-2012)China Annual GDP Breakdown

Global Commodity Intensity Curves Global Commodity Mine Life

1010

Resources Exports – value growth 2002 to 2012

A$56 billion A$192 billion

2002 2012

Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics

11

Coal

12

Coal Summary

• We think coal prices have bottomed out in Q3 2013, spot Newcastle thermal hitting USD76/t and Australian Premium hard coking coal basing at USD131/t

• This period coincides with a pullback in high cost Chinese coal production and in a drop in marginal US coal exports

• We only expect prices to rise marginally in 2014 with firming Chinese demand offset by the backdrop of still high Chinese stockpiles

• Stronger coal exports from Australia and Indonesia will also cap the upside. Australian suppliers will continue to operate at capacity because of fixed cost commitments and Indonesian coal producers high-grading (lowering strip ratios to sustain margins)

• We think 2015 holds better price upside particularly for thermal coal as delayed expansion plans, particularly in Australia and a return to higher strip ratios in Indonesia limits a meaningful supply response

• We expect Newcastle thermal coal prices to average USD88/t in 2014 followed by USD95/t In 2015

• In coking coal the price expectation for 2014 is USD175/t with prices expected to strengthen further in 2015 to USD180/t

13

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Hydro power Thermal power

y/y % change

(15)(10)(5)

05

101520253035

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Coal output Thermal power output

y/y % change


China thermal power demand is up, but domestic supply is down

China Thermal Power & Coal Production Growth

China Thermal Power & Hydro Production Growth

• Chinese coal demand growth (thermal power) appears to be outperforming domestic coal supply growth, currently creating a supply deficit

• Falling domestic coal prices in the past two years has diminished coal profitability significantly, particularly in the large producing north east provinces

• Stronger thermal power demand has also benefited from diminishing hydropower capacity

• A particularly dry Chinese summer has accentuated the drop in hydropower availability with growth rates again in negative territory

14

A drop in Chinese domestic coal production has benefited Australian thermal coal exports


China Thermal Coal Origins

10

30

50

70

90

110

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Newc - Indo 5000 Newc - Indo 4200 Newc - Indo 3400

USD/tonneNewcastle 6000 Coal Price Spreads

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Indonesia

Australia

Russia

Vietnam

USA

Colombia

m tonnes• The drop in Chinese coal production has been supplemented by a rise in coal imports

• The biggest beneficiary has been Australian thermal coal exports, which has now surpassed Indonesia as the largest seaborne supplier into China

• The attraction of coal exports has been the underperforming price performance of Newcastle FOB against key lower rank Indonesian coals

• The recovery in the price spread in the past 6 months confirms a stronger appetite for the higher ranked Australian coal supply

15Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research

China’s coal production has been falling for the past 3 quarters

China Coal Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Coking Coal Exports Thermal Coal Exports

m tonnes YoY % change

Coking growth (RHS)

Thermal growth (RHS)

US Coal Exports

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50YoY % change (RHS) Total Production

3.3 billion tonnes

• A key reason for the slump in thermal coal prices has been the strong supply growth in China

• Significant industry consolidation in the past 3 years had seen the closure of inefficient capacity only to be replaced by larger more efficient coal supply

• However falling coal prices and profitability has seen the higher cost capacity in China start to pullback significantly in the past 12 months

• The other supply drag has been the significant jump in US coal exports post the US shale boom leaving excess coal supply

• But falling seaborne coal prices and rising freight costs has seen this swing supply fall over 10% y/y in the past 12 months

16Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research

Aus + Indo Exports

Indonesian Coal Exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


m tonnes YoY % changeCoking growth (RHS)


Australia Coal Exports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


m tonnes YoY % change

Coking growth (RHS)Thermal growth (RHS)

• A reason coal prices haven’t rebounded more strongly is the ongoing strong supply growth in Indonesia and Australia

• Indonesian thermal coal supply is maximising output to sustain margins and pay, in many cases high debt obligations

• In Australia the supply response has been even stronger

• High fixed-costs and infrastructure take-or-pay arrangements are factors in the supply response

17

118

190

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8075%

10%

% yoym tonnes

55

145

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 20200

5

10

15

20

25

10%

20%

% yoym tonnes

China and India thermal coal imports to grow


China Thermal Coal Imports

India Thermal Coal Imports

• The long term outlook for the world’s largest thermal coal importers – China & India remains strong

• Although China’s y/y growth rate will drop significantly, total tonnages forecast to grow strongly to 2020

• India’s import demand is equally as strong, by 2020 India will make significant ground on China as the largest importer

• In 2020 it’s expected that total tonnages imported into India will be almost three times the level a decade prior

18

Australian exports to grow


Australian Coal Exports

Australian Thermal Coal Exports

0

100

200

300

400

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


m tonnes YoY % changeCoking growth (RHS)


0

100

200

300

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14F 16F 18F 20F-20

24

68

1012

1416

Thermal Coal Exports

m tonnes YoY %

Thermal growth (RHS) forecast

• Australia expected to capture a significant share of the demand growth in Asia Pacific region

• Total coal exports to grow by 21% from 2012 to 2015

• In thermal coal, demand growth out to 2020 will support significant supply capacity increases

19

Finance

20

Alignment

Queensland�Coal�Regions�and�Ports

GalileeBasin

SouthernBowenBasin

SuratBasin

Abbot�Point

DBCTHay�Point

Gladstone

Brisbane

NorthBowenBasin

• Development of coal chain infrastructure requires alignment of the mine and infrastructure elements, with respect to schedule, system specifications, approvals funding and risk allocation

• Alignment will be an important issue in future financings

• Alignment requires collaboration

21

Business Risk of Rail and Port Infrastructure

21

• Reserves and production dependent

• If single or few mines:

o concentration of reserves and production risks;

o limited ability to socialise default risk;

o for new coal basins, initially only limited customer replacement potential;

o potential stranded asset issues;

o terminal and part of rail infrastructure may have broader potential catchment from existing

coal basins.

22

Separate or Linked / Integrated Financings?

Benefits Issues

Separate

• Access separate (specialised) financier pools for mine and infrastructure

• Facilitates equity structure flexibility and sell down e.g. post Completion

• Facilitates multiple customers for infrastructure

• Mine risk limits financier pools anyway• Fragmented security pools – no step-in

rights for whole of business• Payment security across each interface –

additional cost and credit utilisation• Higher position on mine cash cost curve• Need to ensure information provided to

financiers is consistent

Linked / Integrated

• Reflects interdependency of components

• One security pool – step-in across whole business

• Reduce cross default issues • Eliminate payment security costs

across interfaces• Apply cash sweep proceeds across

whole of financing• Cash cost curve position

• Inter-creditor terms for linked financing• Reduced flexibility on separate equity

ownership of mine and infrastructure components

• Not reflective of potential portfolio risk for infrastructure

24

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John Snelling, ANZ - Market developments - Outlook and impacts for Galilee projects

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Transcript of John Snelling, ANZ - Market developments - Outlook and impacts for Galilee projects