John P. Weyant Stanford University › ... › workshops › Weyant-2010-12-03.pdf2010/12/03 ·...
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Sources of Technological Change
John P. WeyantStanford University
R&D Portfolio Analysis Tools and Methodologies WorkshopWashington, D.C.December 3, 2010
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Outline• The Sources of Technological Change• How S&T Research Changed in the Last Decade• Three Products of Research• Factoring in Uncertainty• Implications for R&D Planning
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Personal Sources of the Sources• 1970s
– RAND Airforce R&D Planning– ERG Advanced Electric Gen.Technology Assessment – Phd Thesis on Energy R&D Planning
• 1990s– BER Technological Change Literature Review– Global Technology Strategy Project– Nordhaus/ Nakicenovic Workshops
• 2000s– Clarke and Baker Joint Papers– GCEP Portfolio Analysis and Lab Tours– PEEC Faculty Grant Program– Valley of Death Paper for the Kaufman Foundation
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An Overview of the Process of Technological Change
Private R&DInvestment
HeterogeneousInnovators
(“Returns to R&D”)
Uncertainty inR&D Returns:
Discontinuous Diffusion
UncertainTax Policy
Path-dependenceand inertia
Innovation &Knowledge
Accumulation
IntersectoralSpillovers
Technological Change:Diffusion and
Market PenetrationINERTIA
Learning-by-Doing
Public R&DSpillovers
MajorInnovation
IntrasectoralSpillovers
OUTSIDE INFLUENCESINDUCED CHANGE
Public R&D Investment
Public Tech. Diffusion Policies
Institutional Change
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Technological Change Inside
Industry Own-Industry EffectsDirect
Spillovers
Extra-Industry Activities(R&D or Production)
Own-Industry Activities(R&D or Production)
Indirect Spillovers
Extra-Industry Activities(R&D or Production)
Own-Industry Activities(R&D or Production)
Indirect Spillovers
Learning, R&D, and Spill-Overs
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Study Country Time Period IndustryFirms in Other Industries National
Bernstein & Nadiri (1988)* USA 1958 to 1981 19 to 37 2 to 145 21 to 172Bernstein & Nadiri (1991)* USA 1957 to 1986 25 to 39 (32) 0 to 113 (24) 28 to 142 (55)Goto & Suzuki (1989) Japan 1978 to 1983 26 80 106Griliches & Lichtenberg (1984) USA 1959 to 1978 11 to 31 (24) 69 to 90 (80) 41 to 62 (55)Scherer (1982) USA 1948 to 1978 19 to 43 64 to 147 103Scherer (1984) USA 1973 to 1978 29 74 to 104 103Sveikauskas (1981) USA 1959 to 1969 7 to 25 50 57 to 75Terleckyj (1974) USA 1948 to 1966 12 to 37 (26) 45 to 187 (92) 73 to 107 (90)Terleckyj (1980) USA 1948 to 1966 25 to 27 (26) 82 to 183 (108) 107 to 110 (108)Wolff & Nadiri (1987) USA 1947 to 1972 11 to 19 (15) 10 to 90 (50) 21 to 109 (65)Bernstein (1989)* Canada 1963 to 1983 34 to 57 (42) 0 to 70 (26) 39 to 104 (68)Hanel (1988) Canada 1971 to 1982 50 100 150Mohnen & Lepine (1991) Canada 1975 to 1983 15 to 285 (67) 2 to 90 (29) 21 to 329 (45)Sterlacchini (1989) UK 1954 to 1984 2 to 33 (16) 7 to 32 (15) 18 to 56 (45)
* Net rate of return converted to a gross rate of return assuming a depreciation rate of 10 percent.
Rate of return to:
Note: Numbers in parentheses represent unweighted arithmetic means
Industry Rates of Return from Australian Industry Commission (1995)
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The Stanford ARPAe Smart Meter Project
Media
Technology
CommunityPlatform
Policy
A human‐centered system for saving energy, implemented on ascalable technology platform
Interventions
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How the Nature of S&T and Who Does What Have Changed
• Changing Modes– Much of the work is now at the nano scale– Still some large machines, big IT– But there is a lot of virtual design via computer simulation– Permits more distributed work– Globalization can have a big impact
• Changing Roles– Universities do more applied research– Industry does more basic research– Product development life cycles much faster
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Example: Inorganic Thin-Film Photovoltaics
High efficiency Materials
Performance enhancement through• optimized geometry• quantum effects
• (Novel) low-cost, abundant, non-toxic,and stable semiconductor materials
• Thin films: low volumes and lowerrequirements for charge transport
• Low-cost deposition processes
Nanoscale morphology
III generation concepts with efficiency limitsbeyond the single junction limit of 31%
intermediate band, up-converters, tandem (n=3)
hot carrier
TPVs, thermionics
tandem (n=2)
multiple exciton generation
31%down-converters
68%
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Three Types of Products of Research and Development
• Market Introduction/Welfare Improvements• Option Value• Knowledge Accumulation
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Uncertainty and the Interplay BetweenR&D and Investment Decisions
R&DDecision
C0
InvestmentDecision
C1C1 C2∞Cost Cost
Time
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Interplay Between Public R&Dand Private R&D & Investment Decisions
Public R&DDecision
C0
Private R&DDecision
C1C1 C2∞Cost Cost
Time
PrivateInvestmentDecision
C2C3Cost
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Model Development/Assessment Issues:Common Pitfalls in Policy Modeling
• Lack of Focus– Pick a basic model structure without a set of applications
firmly in mind– Not modifying model in response to new problems
• Mistaking the Model for Reality– If its not in the model it probably doesn’t exist– Test alternative assumptions only against the model– Methodological limitations imply real world restrictions
• Poor Communication of Results– Overstating strength of results– Omitting key relevant assumptions/qualifications
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Implications for R&D Portfolio Analysis• Need to have decision makers and questions in mind• Need to structure assessments more systematically
– Some assessments will be of things endogenous to the models – Others will be of things exogenous to the models– Correlations and dependencies can be very important – Will require some customization for individual models– Two way communication critical
• Improve communication back to decision makers– What’s in– What’s not and what to do about that– What seems to matter
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The End
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Three Approaches to StrategyComparison
Reference: Eisenhardt and Snull, 2001
Position Simple Rules
Strategic steps
Strategic question
Source ofadvantage
Works best in…
Risk
Establish position
Identify attractive marketLocate a defensible positionFortify and defend
Where should we be?
Unique, valuable position with tightly integrated activity system
Slowly changing, well-structured markets
Sustained
It will be too difficult to alter position as conditions change
Profitability
Duration of advantage
Performancegoal
Strategic logic Leverage resources
Establish a visionBuild resourcesLeverage across markets
What should we be?
Unique, valuable, inimitable resources
Moderately changing, well-structured markets
Sustained
Company will be too slow to build new resources as conditions change
Long-term dominance
Pursue opportunities
Jump into the confusionKeep movingSeize opportunitiesFinish strong
How should we proceed?
Key processes and unique simple rules
Rapidly changing, ambiguous markets
Unpredictable
Managers will be too tentative in executing on promising opportunities
Growth
Resources
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Possible Climate Change PolicySimple Rules
• Rely on markets as much as possible• Correct market failures using market principles where possible
– Information– Decision making– Innovation– Demonstration
• Carefully factor in side benefits– Criteria Pollutants– Congestion– Economic development– Environmental justice
• Pay attention to states• Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good and useful
– Adopt broad strategic framework– Experiment at small scale, preparing to accelerate or stop
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What Is the Valley of Death
The key to this process <of innovation> lies in transitioning from R&D to the market --a stage in business development so perilous that it's
often called the Valley of Death. Transversing it requires an intelligent blend of public and private sector investment, targeting the most
promising innovations. *Evan Mills and Jonathan Livingston Forbes-11.17.05, 4:00 PM ET
“Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil…”
* Psalm 23:4, King James Bible
“Into the valley of Death Road the six hundred”
*The Charge of the Light Brigade , Alfred, Lord Tennyson, 1854
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A Non-Linear Model of the Innovative Process
BasicResearch
ScientificKnowledge
AppliedResearch
TechnologiesProduct
Development
Products
Missing things in here often lead
to the Valley of Death
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What You Hear Now
• VCs don’t see enough new deals• Researchers can get R&D money for two
types of things– Things they already know how to do– Things that they may never be able to do– But not much in between
• Idea – this gap needs to be plugged
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Trends in Federal R&D by Function
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Trends in Public and Private Energy R&D
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Conceptual Ideas in R&D Policy• Why we might be under-investing in R&D
– Appropriability– Managers with wrong incentives– Mis-understanding of private sector incentives– We applaud Schumpeter (father of entrepreneurship?)
and then ignore him• Types of spill-overs • Generic policy responses
– Increase appropriability– Subsidize R&D– Increase pool of inventors/innovators
• Potential pitfalls with public support– Pork– Other incentive problems
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Methods Forecasting/Managing Breakthroughs• Regression and statistical analysis of performance
curves (e.g., temperature improvements or wear resistance of materials, manipulation size/speed of nano-materials) superimposed on rates and changing rates of patents and citations
• Knowledge diffusion network analysis (Example 1 • Patent and Citation Analysis (Example 2)• Datamining in Open Literature (Example 3)
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Emergence of the Term “Nano” in the Open Literature and Growth/Decline of Specialty Terms as One Possible Indicator of
Maturity Levels or Transformation:Showing Representative DOE Papers and Patents
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Elements of theInnovative Process
BasicResearch
ScientificKnowledge
AppliedResearch
ProductDevelopment
Technologies Products
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The “Linear Model”of Innovation
BasicResearch
ScientificKnowledge
AppliedResearch
ProductDevelopment
Technologies Products
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Back to the Valley of Death• Many innovative ideas die because some of the
requisite science, technology and business plwan elements are missing, especially in the green zone
• Much of what is missing has the same public good nature as R&D in general
• There are two cases here:– Small scale proof of concepts– Scale up of bench scale demonstrations-Beware of Pork
• Appears to be a bias towards energy supply technologies
• Who could, should, would fund such activity
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Successes and Failures• Successes
– Transistors– Combined Cycle Turbines– “Pulse” Furnaces– Carbon-60– Wind Turbines– Sensors and Automatic Controls
• Failures so far– Beta Max– Fuel Cells– Advanced Batteries*– IGCC– Carbon Capture and Storage– LEDs/OLEDs– Next Generation Nuclear– Solar Cells– Really Smart Houses and Buildings*– Advanced Electricity Trans. And Distribution Systems
*Ready to make quantum leap
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How to Fund the Missing Links• They are still often public good like• A historical perspective
– The big industrial labs in the late 1800s, and before and after the WWs – Used Monopoly Profits
– NSF/AEC/DOE (starting in 1950)– Defense contractors during the cold war
• Dual role – military and civilian • Huge – DARPA, IR&D, etc.
– More modern• NSF, BER, Other DOE• VCs (jump from IT to Clean Tech?)• Industry Consortiums (EPRI, GRI, new NREL)• University Initiatives (GCEP, BFI,• KAUS&T, Google, Kleiner Perkins
– But given the problems we have now, the scale seems way off and a lot of the state of the art in applied energy researchis proprietary
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How to Fund the Missing Links• Need a large technology innovation fund
– Can’t be too choosey, but– Needs to be as public as possible – But to avoid political interference– Needs tough “technology advisory council”– PNGV, DARPA, ITRI, CIRM, CICS et al. as
models?– If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, again.
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General Approaches to Modeling Technological Change
• Exogenous Assumptions (e.g., AEEI, Changing Menu of Technologies)
• Price Induced Technological Change– Learning by Doing– R&D and Knowledge Capital
• Learning Curves– With Respect to Cumulative Experience– With Respect to Cumulative R&D Expenditures
• Other Modifications to Model Parameters With Respect to Time or Policies
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Observations Regarding Current Approaches to Modeling ITC
• Current approaches to ITC provide a good foundation:– spillovers– innovation incentives and knowledge capital– heterogeneous firms and technologies
• Current approaches suggest weak or ambiguous effect of ITC, butunderestimate importance:
– Focus only on R&D-based technological change» learning-by-doing» diffusion or imitation by existing technology
– Assume continuous, known returns to R&D function (no surprises or discontinuities)» No provision for major innovations» Model only one dimension of technological change (cost)
– Neglect path-dependence and inertia in changing technology dynamics
• Modeling challenge will be to incorporate enough complexity torealistically capture technology dynamics in a meaningful way.
• Policy challenge will be to use insights from models, but qualify findingswith a more complete understanding of technological evolution.
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Possible New Research Directions• To learn from history
– Case studies (including failures)– Surveys (including failures)– Patent analysis (more in depth, less econometrics)
• To improve modeling– In depth look at current and possible future gaps– In depth probability assessments– Sync up all the above with existing modeling
approaches
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Reducing Cost and Increasing Efficiencyof Photovoltaic Systems
(M. Green, UNSW)
Cost ↓• Cheaper Active Materials
(abundant inorganic or organic)• Lower Fabrication Costs
(low-cost deposition / growth)• Cheaper BOS Components
(substrates, encapsulation, …)
Efficiency ↑Reduce the Thermodynamic Losses at Each Stepof the Photon-to-Electron Conversion Process• Light Absorption• Carrier Generation• Carrier Transfer and Separation• Carrier Transport
Wafer-based (c-Si)
Thin-films (CIGS, CdTe, a-Si, …)
“III Generation”concepts
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Solar Technology Assessment:Four Categories
--.43.8515%; 30 yrs; $50/m2$20M 10yrs
.001.16.6415%; 30 yrs; $50/m2$5M 10yrsNew inorganic
.013.43.8515%; 30 yrs; $50/m2$10M 10yrs
3rd Generation
CIGS
Purely organic
Technology
.02
.04
.03
.34
Ex 1
.02
0.08
.04
Ex 2
.1436%; 30 yrs; $100/m2$15M 10yrs
.0215%; 30 yrs; $50/m2; no indium shortage$15M 10yrs
.00631%; 15 yrs; $50/m2$80M 15yrs
.0115%; 30 yrs; $50/m2$10M 10yrs
Ex 3
Definition of success (Efficiency, stability, cost)
Funding Trajectory
--.43.8515%; 30 yrs; $50/m2$20M 10yrs
.001.16.6415%; 30 yrs; $50/m2$5M 10yrsNew inorganic
.013.43.8515%; 30 yrs; $50/m2$10M 10yrs
3rd Generation
CIGS
Purely organic
Technology
.02
.04
.03
.34
Ex 1
.02
0.08
.04
Ex 2
.1436%; 30 yrs; $100/m2$15M 10yrs
.0215%; 30 yrs; $50/m2; no indium shortage$15M 10yrs
.00631%; 15 yrs; $50/m2$80M 15yrs
.0115%; 30 yrs; $50/m2$10M 10yrs
Ex 3
Definition of success (Efficiency, stability, cost)
Funding Trajectory
Source: Erin Baker, et al.
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US Energy Consumption By Fuel
40
22 22
8.2
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Energy Efficiency Compared to CO2-Free Energy Supply
• A 10% reduction in all energy intensity implies that 8.5 quads of fossil fuels are not used, reducing CO2 emissions by 8.5%
• A 20-fold increase in wind plus solar can displace about 8.5 quads of fossil fuels. If solar and wind grow for 35% per year from today’s .4 Quads it reached 8 Quads in 10 years.
• A doubling of nuclear power can displace 8 quads of fossil fuels.
• 1 billion tons per year of celluosic conversion of biomass can displace 5 quads of gasoline
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Some High Priority Areas for New Project Development
• Accelerating Adoption of New Energy Efficient Technologies– Disseminating Information– Changing Behavior– Policy Options– New Business Models
• OLED TV and Computer Screen Development• Advanced Electric Drive Technologies• Advanced Electricity Storage Technologies• Micro-grid/Utility/Home Generation Linkages• Grid/Vehicle/Home Electricity Interactions
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Why We Might Be Under-Investing in R&D
• Appropriability/Spill-Over Effects
• Financing Difficulties With R&D Investments
• Poor Management of Past R&D Programs
• Hard to Sell R&D to Decision Makers
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Types of Spill-Overs
• To Other Firms in Industry (Appropriability)
• To Other Industries
• To Consumers
• To Productivity and Economic Growth
• To Other Countries
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Generic Policy Responses to Underinvestment in R&D
• Increase Appropriability– Patents– Protect Intellectual Property Rights– Industry Consortiums
• Reduce the Costs of R&D– Direct Funding– Subsidies– Government/Industry Consortiums– Increase Supply of Inventors
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Potential Problems With Public Support for Private R&D
• Pork Barrel Politics (Cohen/Noll)– Distributive Politics-Potential Losers Outnumber Winners– Neither Dems. nor Reps. Can Form Support Coalition– Exception – Major Threats to the Nation, security, etc. CC?
• Incentive Problems– Govt. Can’t Pick winners– Might Just Displace Private Funding– Govt. Managers Only Interested in Winners– Hard to Terminate Bad Projects
• Move Creative Assets Out of Other Industries• Decision Makers Do Not Understand Options
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Market Failuresin Energy Markets
• Environmental• Innovation• Information
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Observations Regarding Current Approaches to Modeling ITC
• Current approaches to ITC provide a good foundation:– spillovers– innovation incentives and knowledge capital– heterogeneous firms and technologies
• Current approaches suggest weak or ambiguous effect of ITC, butunderestimate importance:
– Focus only on R&D-based technological change» learning-by-doing» diffusion or imitation by existing technology
– Assume continuous, known returns to R&D function (no surprises or discontinuities)» No provision for major innovations» Model only one dimension of technological change (cost)
– Neglect path-dependence and inertia in changing technology dynamics
• Modeling challenge will be to incorporate enough complexity torealistically capture technology dynamics in a meaningful way.
• Policy challenge will be to use insights from models, but qualify findingswith a more complete understanding of technological evolution.
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Current ITC Modeling Approaches: Overview
• Linear, deterministic dynamics of technological change
• Various economic frameworks– Empirical (Jorgenson & Wilcoxen, 1993)– Cost-function (Goulder & Mathai, 1997)– Macroeconomic
» Neoclassical growth (Nordhaus, 1997)» General equilibrium (Goulder & Schneider, 1998)
Total R&D Investment
TechnologicalChange
Returnsto R&D
Tax Policy Spillovers
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Limitations and Possible Extensions to Current Methods for Modeling ITS
Current approaches omit important dynamics of technologicalchange. A broader framework for analyzing ITC is needed.
Private R&DInvestment
HeterogeneousInnovators
(“Returns to R&D”)
Uncertainty inR&D Returns:
Discontinuous Diffusion
UncertainTax Policy
Path-dependenceand inertia
Innovation &Knowledge
Accumulation
IntersectoralSpillovers
Technological Change:Diffusion and
Market PenetrationINERTIA
Learning-by-Doing
Public R&DSpillovers
MajorInnovation
IntrasectoralSpillovers
OUTSIDE INFLUENCESINDUCED CHANGE
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Types of Technological Change
• Invention• Innovation• Diffusion
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Policy Options in Two Key Areas
• Research and Development– Invention– Innovation
• Technology Diffusion–Domestic Diffusion–Technology Transfer
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Outline
• Types of Technological Change (TC)• General Approaches to Modeling TC• Induced Technological Change (ITC)• Public Support for R&D• Public Support for Technology Diffusion