John Lucas - Fapesp · Computational framework for climate change impact assessment (Semenov, 2008)...
Transcript of John Lucas - Fapesp · Computational framework for climate change impact assessment (Semenov, 2008)...
Climate change impacts and opportunities for
agriculture
John Lucas
Rothamsted Research
Plan of talk
• Potential impacts on agriculture
– Direct impacts
– Indirect effects
• Opportunities
– New science
– New markets and products?
• Examples from current Rothamsted
programme
Wheat production Australia 1998-2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source Grain Market Report
International Grains Council
Mill
ion m
etr
ic t
ons
Forecast
Can we predict likely impacts?Setting target traits for breeders
Changes in precipitation in 2050s
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Drier summersCanges in max temperature in 2050s
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.7
3
3.3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hotter summers
Breeding cultivars for
drought or heat stress?
Computational framework for climate change impact
assessment (Semenov, 2008)
HadCM3
High resolution
scenarios
Impact assessment
under climate change
Model(incl. crop, pests, weeds
diseases)
Soil
Climate
Management
Cultivars/Genetics
Weather Generator
Drought stress decreased
1960-1990 2050s
Yield losses due to drought expected once every 20 years for cv. Avalon
Cultivar 1960-90 2050HI
Avalon Maturity 8 Aug 18 July
Changes in precipitation in 2050s
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Heat stress at flowering increased
1960-1990 2050s
The probability of heat stress at flowering resulting in substantial yield
losses for cv. Mercia
Cultivar 1960-90 2050HI
Mercia Flowering 19 June 5 June
Tmax at flowering, C 19.36 20.42
Tmax at 19 June 21.70
Conclusions
• Despite higher temperature and predicted
lower summer rainfall, impact of drought on
yield is expected to decrease, because
wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate
and avoid severe drought.
• the probability of heat stress around
flowering is predicted to increase, leading to
yield loss.
• Breeding strategies for future climate need
to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high
temperature, rather than to drought.
Semenov, 2008. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Region 4
Region 5
Region 6
Tomato growing climatic regions in Brazil
1. SC, PR and
SP
2. RJ, ES and
SE MG
3. North of RS
4. Central MG,
GO and N SP
5. PE
6. CE
Information courtesy of Ricardo Gioria
• 15ºC - 25ºC to germinate (below 8ºC or above 40ºC -
problems);
• 20ºC - 25ºC for good seedling development;
• 18ºC - 24ºC to bloom;
• 14ºC - 17ºC during the night and 19ºC - 24ºC during the
day for a good fruit set;
• 20ºC - 24ºC lycopene synthesis – good fruit color.
Recommended temperature for the tomato crop
Green- possible based on the technology available;
yellow- some restriction concerning precipitation and/ or temperature;
red- uneconomic or high damage risk
Meses** Ano
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2005 Plantio 2080
2005
Região 1
Colheita 2080
2005 Plantio 2080
2005
Região 2
Colheita 2080
2005 Plantio 2080
2005
Região 3
Colheita 2080
2005 Plantio 2080
2005
Região 4
Colheita 2080
2005 Plantio 2080
2005
Região 5
Colheita 2080
2005 Plantio 2080
2005
Região 6
Colheita 2080
Comparison between 2005 and 2080: possibilities of sowing and
harvesting tomato fruits
MonthsYear
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Region 4
Region 5
Region 6
Sowing
Harvest
Sowing
Harvest
Sowing
Harvest
Sowing
Harvest
Sowing
Harvest
Sowing
Harvest
Indirect effects on crop yield and quality
• Focus on potential effects on pests and
diseases
– Changes in distribution and severity
– Changes in range and behaviour of disease
vectors
– Emergence of new pests and diseases
– Pests and diseases on broadacre bioenergy
crops?
Stem canker of oilseed rape – Leptosphaeria
maculans
Mapping disease
Predicted yield losses from phoma stem canker
(susceptible cultivars)
•Combined disease and crop model to predict yield loss
•Yield losses (susceptible cultivars) in England will double
•Priority to breed cultivars with better resistance
2020HI1980s 2050HI
Predicted date of first canker at Rothamsted (spring)
0 100 200 300
05
00
10
00
15
00
20
00
25
00
30
00
35
00
Hi2020 vs current date
Days since harvest
Degre
e-d
ays
Canker starts after
1200 degree-days
Mapping predicted changes in disease
parameters
• Pathogen life cycles
• Risk factors for disease
• Focus on key crops in Brazil
– Two examples – coffee and banana
Raquel Ghini, Emilia Hamada et.al. Embrapa Meio Ambiente
Incubation period (days) – coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix)
Black Sigatoka of banana
Mycosphaerella fijiiensis
Black Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) – banana
Black Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) – banana
Plant disease vectors
Airborne aphids sampled
by suction trap
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Peach – potato aphid at Rothamsted 1965 - 2006
Jan - Feb mean temperature °C
April
May
June
July
Fir
st
su
cti
on
tra
p r
ec
ord
r 2 = 0.786
P < 0.001
1960s black
1970s blue
1980s green
1990s gold
2000s red
Advance in aphid flight
dates
EXAMINE consortium
Invasive diseases – Bluetongue disease of ruminants
2006-7 bluetongue outbreak in N Europe
Culicoides disease vector
BTV-4
BTV-16
BTV-9
BTV-1
BTV-4
BTV-2
&
BTV-4
BTV-8
BTV-1
BTV- type 8?
BTV-15BTV-4
BTV-16
BTV-9
BTV-1
BTV-4
BTV-2
&
BTV-4
BTV-8
BTV-1
BTV- type 8?
BTV-15
Genetic analysis of bluetongue viruses isolated in Europe has shown that
six types of the virus (1, 2, 4, 8, 9 and 16) have entered the region since
1998. There are at least four distinct routes by which these viruses have
arrived. Further information is available from the dsRNA virus web site at :
www.reoviridae.org/dsRNA_virus_proteins/
Pandemic disease expansion
Asian soybean rust Phakopsora pachyrhizi
•First detected in S. America in 2001- Brazil and
Paraguay
•USA in 2004
Extreme events may contribute to disease dispersal
Hurricane Katrina's winds helped push soybean rust further north inUSA (Alan Blaine, Mississippi State University soybean specialist).
Increase in
extreme
weather
events?
Factors increasing uncertainty
• Climate change effects on host
development and physiology
• Effects on host resistance
• Pathogen adaptation
• Change will not be linear or uniform –
chaotic system
Uncertainty v RISK
What can be done?
• Improved surveillance and monitoring
• Improved high throughput diagnostics
• Improved information systems
• Better networks to pre-empt problems
Opportunities for physical sciences in a changing climate : new technologies
for detection of emerging pests and diseases in agriculture
Rapid, non-invasive detection of (biomarkers of) pests and diseases
(UK Foresight DIID project, 2006; RSC report, 2009)
• Semiochemical (pheromone)-based trapping systems for pest monitoring
• Biosensors based on insect olfaction
• Physical sensors based on mass spectrometry
• Sentinel plants/animals based on activation of plant/animal defence
Honeybees can be “trained” to respond to
new odours, including disease markers
Developing sentinel plants/animals
for detecting infestation/infection
Inscentinel Ltd“Naturally inspired sensing solutions”
Cross section of
antennal sensillum
V
V
V
BP
BP - V
R
O = Odour
BP = Binding protein
= Receptor
Soybean rust
• First detected in S. America in 2001- Brazil and Paraguay
• USA in 2004
• USDA coordinated network – sentinel plots
• 75,000 extension presentations!
• First plant disease where information has been managed entirely via Internet
Opportunities
• New crops, crop products and
technologies to mitigate climate change
• £27m investment to build research capacity in the UK
• Virtual Centre with academic and industrial research partners
• Six integrated programmes
BIOMASS
GROWTH
BIOMASS
COMPOSITION
BIOMASS
DECONSTRUCTION FERMENTATION
Six main themes
•Improving perennial biomass crops
•Manipulating lignin to optimise sugar release
•Improving release of sugars from plant cell walls
•Discovering new enzymes for sugar release
•Developing yeast strains to ferment sugars
•Bacterial fermentation of sugars to butanol
•Short rotation coppice Willow Salix species
•UK National Willow collection
• c.1500 genotypes – 100 species
• Exploring genetic diversity and productivity
New crops – Bioenergy grasses at Rothamsted
Ligno-cellulosics, energy crops
SRC willow Miscanthus
wood chip Switchgrass
Feedstocks
DRAX
Co-fired power station
900 MW of new dedicated
biomass fired generation
Significant contribution to
UK renewables target
Biomass for energy genetic improvement
network (BEGIN)
B
EG
I
N
To deliver the breeding programme and plant materials
that will allow further improvement of willow as a biomass
crop
• Improve yield and resistances to insects pests,
diseases and other stress (drought)
• Widen genetic base of the varieties available for
growers
• Ensure continuous delivery of new genotypes to
meet future needs of the industry
Composite picture shows (top left, SRC willow; top middle, willow
catkins; top right, SRC poplar; lower left, microarray; lower right,
microsatellites). The Populus cDNA microarray was created as
part of the Swedish Genome Project and was provided by Stefan
Jansson (Umea Plant Science Centre).
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2
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Q83
Orm
Rapp
Jorr
Tora
Sven
Olo
f
Gudru
n
Dis
covery
Resolu
tion
Yield ODT/ha/yr
1993 1995-7 2000-2002
Two EWBP
varieties
Biomass yield increased from 8-15 ODT/ha/yr
Swedish
varieties
Swedish
varieties
Early
varieties
2005-2006
Increasing yield
Target >20 ODT/ha/yr
Data set for empirical model (Miscanthus)
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2
4
6
8
10
12
14
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18
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Yie
ld (
dry
ma
tte
r -
t h
a-1
)
RES 408
RES 480
0
5
10
15
20
Arth
ur R
ickw
ood
Box
wor
th
Brid
gets
Bro
oms Bar
n TG
Buc
kfas
t Abbe
y
Gleadt
horpe
Hig
h M
owth
orpe
Rose
mau
nd
Rose
war
ne
Roth
amsted
408
Roth
amsted
480
Roth
amsted
TG
SCRI
Wobu
rn m
ain
TG
Wobu
rn m
icro
TG
Yie
ld (
dry
matt
er
- t
ha
-1 )
Rothamsted
Around the UK
Courtesy Richter, Daily & Riche. Rothamsted Research
GIS Yield map for England and
Wales using soils and climate
data sets as input to empirical
Miscanthus yield model.
Richter, G.M., Riche, A.B., Dailey, A.G., Gezan S.A., & Powlson D.S. (2008) Is
UK biofuel supply from Miscanthus water-limited? Soil Use and Management,
24, 235–245
Short rotation coppice – Willow rust Melampsora spp
Acknowledgements
UK
Mikhail Semenov
Bruce Fitt
Mike Birkett
James Logan
Ian Shield
Angela Karp
Andy Whitmore
Brazil
Ricardo Gioria
Raquel Ghini
Soybean rust Brazil 2007(source Neto, Godoy, Toledo)
Source: Royal Society Report Sustainable biofuels:
prospects and challenges 2008
Energy balanceCNG 0.86
Petrol 0.91
Diesel 0.94
Sugar beet to Ethanol 1.4 – 2.1
Wheat grain to Ethanol 0.7 – 2.7
Wheat straw to Ethanol 0.8 – >20a
Oilseed rape to diesel 0.7 – 4.4
SRC willow to Fischer Tropsch >13.9
a Extremely sensitive to the allocation of growing “costs” of straw,
Miscanthus and switchgrass give similar values >20.
Compiled from the work of; Woods and Bauen (2003), Elsayed et al. (2003)
and Saynor et al. (2003)
Miscanthus x giganteus
A perennial rhizomatous C4 grass originating in E. Asia
A natural hybrid between M. sinensis and M.
sacchariflorus, brought to Europe in early C20 as an
ornamental, M. sinensis still common in garden centres.
Common name also miscanthus