John little, whiskey and flow
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a great way for understanding flow numbers and Little's law
Transcript of John little, whiskey and flow
Agenda
• Flow numbers at the bar
• Flow numbers at the Kanban board
• Little’s Law
• Q&A
Agenda
• Flow numbers at the bar
• Flow numbers at the Kanban board
• Little’s Law
• Q&A
Flow numbers at the bar
WIP
• The number of bottles in the bar. Bottles
that have been opened, but not yet
empty.
Lead time
• The time between the bottle is added to
the bar and the bottle comes out of the
bar (empty).
Cycle time
• The time between two successive empty
bottles leaving the bar
Throughput
• The rate at which bottles are passing through
the bar.
Batch size
• The size of the bottles.
Agenda
• Flow numbers at the bar
• Flow numbers at the Kanban board
• Little’s Law
• Q&A
Agenda
• Flow numbers at the bar
• Flow numbers at the Kanban board
• Little’s Law
• Q&A
Flow numbers at the Kanban board
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
4
75
112
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
4
75
112
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
WIP
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
4
75
112
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
Lead Time
10 10Day 1Day 6
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
4
75
112
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
Day 1Day 1
Cycle time
Day 2
Day 3Day 3
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
4
75
112
John
Suzy
Paul
AmyThroughput
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
475
112
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
Batch size
Agenda
• Flow numbers at the bar
• Flow numbers at the Kanban board
• Little’s Law
• Q&A
Agenda
• Flow numbers at the bar
• Flow numbers at the Kanban board
• Little’s Law
• Q&A
Little’s Law
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
4
75
112
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
WIP
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
4
75
112
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
WIP
ThroughputDemand
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
4
75
112
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
WIP
Lead Time
Doing DoneTo Do
10
5
9
3118
17
21
4
75
112
John
Suzy
Paul
Amy
WIP
Lead Time
# WIP is proportional to average lead time
“The average number of work
items in a stable system is equal
to their average completion rate,
multiplied by their average time
in the system.”
John Little, 1961
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
The numbers at my bar
• My bar has 12 bottles of whiskey
• I finish an average of 6 bottles per year
• What is the average lead time for a bottle of
whiskey?
?
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time
Lead time = 2 years
Cycle time is the inverse of
Throughput
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
<=>
Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time
Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time
2 years = 12 b x Cycle time
Cycle time = 1 year / 6 b
Converting to months…
Cycle time = 2 months / 1 b
In average, I finish a bottle every
2 months
Agenda
• Flow numbers at the bar
• Flow numbers at the Kanban board
• Little’s Law
• Q&A
Agenda
• Flow numbers at the bar
• Flow numbers at the Kanban board
• Little’s Law
• Q&A
Questions to the audience
• What happens if my bar size reduces by half?
• What if I only buy small bottles (half size)?
• What if I double my drinking average?
• Q&A
Thank you!
Questions?
feedback please: @paulocaroli
www.KanbanAndBeyond.com
Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
[email protected]: @paulocaroli
