JOHN L. GLASCOCK, PHD, SIOR, FRICS CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE AND URBAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF...
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Transcript of JOHN L. GLASCOCK, PHD, SIOR, FRICS CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE AND URBAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF...
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JOHN L. GLASCOCK, PHD, SIOR, FRICS
CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE AND URBAN STUDIES
UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT
PETER GIOIA, CBIA
UCONN Commercial Conference9 May 2013
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Why the Recovery is SOOO Slow!
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Thanks to Great Friends
Catic
Cornerstone
Konover Properties and family
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The ECONOMY
China vs USA—we do not lose unless we stop playing!
Europe has stopped playing…maybe Japan too.
Our job is to destroy and then re-create jobs
Harford – Not doing too well!
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China versus USA
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Per Capital GDP: USA, Japan & China
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China Debt about the Same as USA!
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Everyone has debt
USA is about the same as Germany
UK must higher
China weaker position
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Debt to GDP, but…
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Debt not held By FED, etc…
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China headed toward Wasteful Crash!
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Bank Debt to Finance Investment in China
Estimate is that about 40-60%
will never be repaid!
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Dalian China
Building on right has been empty for about 10 years!
Many developments in China will never pay off—gov’t sponsored.
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USA Beats China—energy use!
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USA Doing Well—EU Downturn is NOT NEW!
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Europe is Killing Their Respective Economies
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Lets turn to the USA
Too few people working
The key is productivity
Get rid of poor jobs Increase share of high value-added
jobs
Remember agriculture! And the UK late 1800’s
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People are NOT working
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Women are NOT working NOW!
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Labor Participation—too few young Working and too many elderly working!
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Economy tooo smooth
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WOW! Did you Know?
See The Age of Austerity, Thomas Edsall, 2012
The deficit would be zero in 2009 if not for 5 items:
1. Economic Downturn2. BUSH Tax cuts3. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan4. Recovery Measures5. TARP, Fannie/Freddie
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The Economic Recovery
This time is
different
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Jobs NOT just GDP is Different this time!
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CT Doing Well, but Not Outstanding
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Hartford NOT doing well!
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Percent w/o Health Insurance
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Final Thoughts—Questions?
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More Details Shiller Index
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Russia