John Hussman Wine Country Conference 2014 VeryMeanReversion

7/22/2019 John Hussman Wine Country Conference 2014 VeryMeanReversion

1/36

Mjho Y. Hussceo, Yh.K.Hussceo Ptretfnl` Ekvlsjrs

^lof @juotry @jodfrfo`f, 795;

tj gfofdlt thf Eutlsc Pj`lfty jd Ecfrl`e


2/36

\ju erf hfrf.


3/36

Lkfotldylon cfeo rfvfrsljo


4/36



5/36


Ojtl`f thetsugsfqufot`heonf lslovfrsftj

thf prfsfotbfvfb.


6/36



7/36

Pteokerk cfeo-rfvfrtlon prj`fssXduturf3 Xtjkey* (C/Xtjkey)_{5 f-e[}

^hfrf e ls thf ekmustcfot spffk, C ls thf cfeo, eok [ ls thf tlcf tj duturf

[hf duturf % `heonf lo X wlbb gf prjpjrtljoeb tj bjn(C/Xtjkey)

^hfo X ls wfbb egjvf thf cfeo C, duturf heonf wlbb gf ofnetlvf

^hfo X ls wfbb gfbjw thf cfeo C, duturf heonf lo X wlbb gf pjsltlvf

Ld wf hevf sjcf Duokecfoteb D thet ls rfprfsfotetlvfjd thf cfeo C, thfo thfduturf% `heonf lo X wlbb gf lovfrsfbyrfbetfk tj thf prfsfotbjn(X/D)

[hls rfsubt hjbks fvfo ld C eok D nrjw jvfr tlcf.

f tfst cfeo rfvfrsljo lo X ojtgy fxeclolon X ltsfbd

gut gy rfbetlon X tj sjcf rfprfsfotetlvfduokecfoteb D

thfo hfàlon whfthfrduturf `heonfslo X erf lovfrsf tj thfprfsfotX/D

* Nffas Ojtf= [f`holèbby, wf fxpf`t duturf % `heonfs lo X tj gf lovfrsf tj thf ùrrfot bfvfb jd bjn(X/D)

Hetf ceth:Must

rfcfcgfrthls


8/36

Cfeo rfvfrsljo ls herk tj kftf`t klrf`tby


9/36

[hf bfvfb jd X lsot fojunh tj tfbb thf stjry


10/36

[hf rfeb tlpjdd= Duturfceraft rfturos erf

lovfrsf tjprfsfotbjn(prl`f/duokecfoteb)


11/36

^hy eo fqulty guggbf lsot jgvljusYrjdlt cernlos erf >9% egjvf thflr hlstjrl`eb ojrc, djrrfesjos thet hevf e nrfet kfeb tj kj wlth thf prfsfotf`jojcl` `y`bf, gut shjubk ojt gf fxpf`tfk tj pfrslst.

Yrjdlt cernlos erf prjgegby thf cjst cfeo-rfvfrtlonsfrlfs lo dloeo`f, eok ld prjdlt cernlos kj ojt cfeo-

rfvfrt, thfo sjcfthlon hes njof gekby wrjon wlth`eplteblsc.

- Mfrfcy Nreothec


12/36

^hy shjubk wf èrf: f kj ojtèrf egjut prjdlt cernlos jut jd `jo`fro thet

ferolons wlbb kf`blof jvfr thf ofxt dfw yfers eok stjàs wlbbdebb es e rfsubt. ^hlbf gjth cey heppfo, thf de`t ls thet

ceraft `heonfs usuebby hevf blttbf `jrrfbetljo wlth shjrt-ruo `heonfs lo `jrpjretf prjdlts.

f erf egjut prjdlt cernlos gfèusf stjàs erf e rjunhby69-yfer kuretljo `belc jo duturf èsh dbjws. Gy thloalon

thet stjà prl`fs èo gf vebufk es e slcpbf cubtlpbfjdtjkeys ferolons, lovfstjrs erf uslon tjkeys ferolons es ldthfy erf rfprfsfotetlvfjd thet fotlrf bjon tfrc strfec djrkfèkfs, eok kfèkfs, eok kfèkfs tj `jcf.


13/36

Kjfs prjdlteglblty cfeo-rfvfrt:

[hf tfst jdcfeo-rfvfrsljols whfthfrsugsfqufot

`heonfs ruolovfrsf tjprfsfot bfvfbs.Pj der, thfy kj.


14/36

Kjfs prjdlteglblty cfeo-rfvfrt:

Ojt fvfryjofblafs cy usfjd @YE[EX.Jthfr verleots

kjot `heonfthf gesl` stjry.


15/36

@jrpjretf prjdlts erf e clrrjr-lcenf jd

kfdl`lts lo jthfr sf`tjrs

f aojw whycernlos hevfgffo fbfvetfk.Ojthlon lo

thls kyoecl`hes `heonfk.


16/36

Votlb rf`fotby, sbjw rfeb wenf nrjwth hes

suppjrtfk prjdlt nrjwth.

f aojw whycernlos hevfgffo fbfvetfk.Ojthlon lo

thls kyoecl`hes `heonfk.


17/36

[hf Lrjo Bew jd Tebuetljo

Fvfry sfùrlty ls e `belc jo sjcf fxpf`tfk strfec jd duturf èshdbjws thet wlbb gf kfblvfrfk tj thf lovfstjr jvfr tlcf.

[hf hlnhfr thf prl`f eo lovfstjr peys djr thet strfec jd èshdbjws, thf bjwfr thf fxpf`tfk rfturo.

[hf bjwfr thf prl`f eo lovfstjr peys djr thet strfec jd èshdbjws, thf hlnhfr thf fxpf`tfk rfturo.

E rfblegbf vebuetljo duokecfoteb D e`ts es e suddl`lfotstetlstl` thet celotelos prjpjrtljoebltytj thjsf bjon-ruo eshdbjws. Pj thf hlnhfr thf retlj jd Yrl`f/D, thf bjwfr thf bjon-tfrcfxpf`tfk rfturo, eok vl`f vfrse.


18/36

@urrfot ferolons èo gf tfrrlgby uorfprfsfotetlvf

es suddl`lfot stetlstl`s djr bjon-ruo èsh dbjws

Jgsfrvetljo jvfr ceoy yfers hes teunht us thet thf

`hlfd bjssfs tj lovfstjrs jcf drjc thf pur`hesf jd bjw-queblty sfùrltlfs et tlcfs jd njjk guslofss jokltljos.[hf pur`hesfrs vlfw thf njjk ùrrfot ferolons esfqulvebfot tj ferolon pjwfr eok essucf thet prjspfrltyls fqulvebfot tj sedfty.

- Gfomeclo Nrehec


19/36

Cernlos eok cubtlpbfs cettfrmjlotby


20/36



21/36



22/36

Fxpf`tfk 7-yfer tjteb rfturos

Tebuetljoskj ojt rfblegbycfeo-rfvfrt etshjrt hjrlzjos.

Frrjr geoks erfvfry wlkf.


23/36


Plnoldl`eotfrrjrs fvfoet 0-yferhjrlzjo


24/36


Weonf eokdrfqufo`yjd frrjrslcprjvlon et

egjut 6 yfers,gut stlbb bernf.


25/36

Fxpf`tfk >-yfer tjteb rfturos

Weonf jd frrjroerrjwlon.]frj fxpf`tfkrfturo et thls

hjrlzjo.


26/36


Yrjspf`tlvf59-yfer tjtebrfturos egjut7.;% eoouebby


27/36


Yrjspf`tlvf56-yfer tjtebrfturos stlbbjoby ;.;%

eoouebby


28/36


Yrjspf`tlvf79-yfer rfturosjoby egjut 6.6%eoouebby hfrf.

Ojtf sblnhtby jddphesf prjdlbf.


29/36

Yrjspf`tlvf rfturos erf ofnetlvfet

hjrlzjos jd bfss theo > yfers


30/36

Wfblegbf vebuetljo cfesurfs erf kjugbfhlstjrl`eb ojrcs


31/36

Wfblegbf vebuetljo cfesurfs lcpby wfeaduturfrfturos


32/36

Lts ojt klddfrfot thls tlcf. Wfvfrsljo tj thf cfeo ls thf lrjo rubf jd thf dloeo`leb ceraftsMjho Gjnbf

Ceoy shebb gf rfstjrfk thet erf ojw debbfo1 eok ceoy shebb debb thet erf ojw lo

hjojur.

Hjre`f Ers Yjftl`e es qujtfk lo Pf`urlty Eoebysls gy Gfomeclo Nrehec eokKevlk Kjkk

L njt wlpfk jut pfrsjoebby lo 5


33/36

Ekkfoke= Phlbbfr Y/F

Ekmustlon djrprjdlt cernlosfcgfkkfk loPhlbbfr ferolons(whl`h cettfr!)

thf Phlbbfr Y/Fwjubk prfsfotbygf egjvf 09.


34/36

Cfkleo eok cfeo prl`f/rfvfouf


35/36

E hlkfjus jppjrtuolty sft Mecfs Cjotlfr


36/36

@josfqufo`fs jd ylfbk-sffalon

John Hussman Wine Country Conference 2014 VeryMeanReversion

Documents

Transcript of John Hussman Wine Country Conference 2014 VeryMeanReversion