John Fitzpatrick Brazil Political and Business Comment

Britcham Brasil/CCBC Round Table October 30, 2007

To 2010 and Beyond

2

Same Party/New Party?

Republican McCain/Guiliani/Romney/Thompson

Democrats Clinton/Obama/Edwards/Biden

Situation in Iraq/Iran Next?

Any breakthrough on Free Trade?

International Outlook

US Presidential Election 2008US Presidential Election 2008

Argentina Kirchner the Second

VenezuelaChavez – Mussolini or Hitler?

CubaAfter Castro the second Cuban Crisis?

Latin AmericaLatin America

Good Guys/Bad Guys

China and RussiaChina and Russia

3

Brazil Short Term

Post-Calheiros era

• Legislative logjam broken• CPMF extension – debate • Role of opposition parties

Supreme Court ruling on party loyalty

4

Brazil Long Term

2008 Municipal elections – candidates in São Paulo – Suplicy,

Chinaglia, Alckmin, Kassab.

2009 Presidential/state governor elections – role/influence of Lula.

AFTER Will Lula bounce back?Will the incumbent be able to stand again?

5

Brazil’s Next President

Lula's protégé – Ciro Gomes or Aecio Neves or Dilma Roussef or who?

Truly independent or just minding the shop before Lula comes back in 2014?

PMDB – Nelson Jobim? DEM – Cesar Maia?PMDB – Nelson Jobim? DEM – Cesar Maia?

Can the PSDB avoid another internal battle, this time between Serraand Neves?

Will the PT have a (strong) candidate: Dilma Rousseff, AloisioMercadante, Marta Suplicy, Eduardo Suplicy, Tarso Genro?

6

Brazil Political and Business Comment

A Foreign View of Brazilian Politics, Business, Finance and History

“The site presents insight and opinion and aims to encourage debate and discussion

on this dynamic country which, unfortunately, is often seen abroad only through clichéd

images of the Carnival and football.”

Some Recent Comments:

Will Lula Leave Brazil in Safe or Unsafe Hands?

Senate Spits in the Face of the Brazilian People

Lula’s Brazil: Economic Boom – Political Gloom

ACM – Brazil Will Never See His Like Again

Brazilians Let Politicians Treat Them as Doormats

Brazil is the Next Foreign Market to Blast Off

Look Out for the New BBC – the Brazilian Broadcasting Corporation

7

Brazil Political and Business Comment

Mario Henrique Simonsen

Luiz Furlan

Mailson da Nobrega

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Paulo Vieira da Cunha

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Brazilian Views of Brazil - Guest Interviews

8

A parting thought..

“Democracy is the worst form of government except for all those others that have been tried.”

Winston Churchill

John Fitzpatrick Brazil Political and Business Comment