John Farner, Irrigation Association California ...calirrigation.com/events_80_1820082453.pdf · ©...

© Irrigation Association 11

Driving our storyJohn Farner, Irrigation Association

California Agricultural Irrigation Association – September 5, 2019


Greetings from Washington D.C.


House Version of the Farm Bill

• Eliminates livestock carve‐out

• Expands eligibility for EQIP contracts

• Funds merged EQIP and CSP program at $2 billion in FY19, $2.5 billion in FY20, $2.75 billion in FY21, $2.935 billion in FY22 and $3.0 billion in 2023.


Senate Version of Farm Bill(h) WATER CONSERVATION OR IRRIGATION EFFICIENCY PRACTICE(1) AVAILABILITY OF PAYMENTSThe Secretary may provide payments under this subsection to a producer for a waterconservation or irrigation practice.(2) PRIORITY In providing payments to a producer for a water conservation or irrigation practice, theSecretary shall give priority to applications in which—(A) consistent with the law of the State in which the eligible land of the producer is located, there isa reduction in water use in the operation of the producer; or(B) the producer agrees not to use any associated water savings to bring new land, other thanincidental land needed for efficient operations, under irrigated production, unless the producer isparticipating in a watershed‐wide project that will effectively conserve water, as determined by theSecretary; or(C) the water conservation or irrigation practice addresses regional drought control efforts.


Senate Version of Farm Bill

• Reduces the livestock carve‐out from 60% to 50%

• Expands eligibility for EQIP contracts

• Funds EQIP at the following levels (note that the Senate bill does not eliminate the CSP):

2019 ‐ $1.473 B

2020 ‐ $1.478 B

2021 ‐ $1.541 B

2022 ‐ $1.571 B

2023 ‐ $1.595 B

• Funds the Foundation For Food and Agriculture Research at $200 million.


The 2014 Farm Bill passed over a year late due to disputes between Republican factions

Senate Agriculture Committee reports a Farm Bill

Entire Senate passes a Farm Bill

House Agriculture Committee reports a Farm Bill

The 2008 Farm Bill expired (some programs including SNAP continued through appropriations)

The 2008 Farm Bill extended for one year

Senate Agriculture Committee reports a second Farm Bill

House Agriculture Committee reports a second Farm Bill

Entire Senate passes second Farm Bill

House’s second Farm Bill fails on the House floor (195‐234, 62 Republicans voted against)

House passes a “Farm Only” Bill

House passes a “Nutrition Only” Bill

Conference Committee meets to reconcile House and Senate bills

House passes Conference Report

Senate passes Conference Report

President Obama signs the 2014 Farm Bill into law at Michigan State University

April 2012

July 2012

Dec. 2012

June 2012

Oct. 2012

May 14, 2013

May 15, 2013

June 20, 2013

July 2013

Sept. 2013

Oct. 2013

Jan. 2014

Feb. 4, 2014

Feb. 7, 2014

June 10, 2013


2018 Farm BillH.R. 2: Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018S. 3042: Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018

18

Current status

Resolvingdifferences

Passed House

6/21/18

Passed committee

5/3/18

Passed committee6/13/18

Introduced in House 4/12/18

Introduced in Senate 6/11/18

Signed into law

Previous actions in 2018

January 30: Sec. Perdue releases the Trump admin’s “Farm Bill Legislative Principles,” calling for state flexibility to set SNAP requirements and no increases to crop insurance subsidies

April 12: Rep. Conaway introduces the Farm Bill with tightened work provisions for SNAP, provoking unified opposition to the legislation from Democrats

May 18: The Farm Bill fails on the House floor after the Freedom Caucus withholds supports until Republican leadership brings immigration votes to the floor

March 19: Democratic members of the House Agriculture Committee cease all negotiations over reported SNAP changes; Chairman Conaway refuses to release the full Farm Bill text

• Deadline: September 30, 2018• First House vote failed due to opposition from the Freedom Caucus• The House and Senate have both voted to advance to conference

committee• House is in summer recess until early September

June 21, 2018 House vote

213

20 191

For

Against

Passed Senate

6/28/18June 28, 2018 Senate vote

39

11

48For

Against

July 31: The Senate agreed by voice vote to move to conference committee. The House already agreed to do so on July 18. The first meeting will not be until after summer recess


Differences between the House and Senate’s Farm Bills

Subject House version Senate version

Crop insurance • Eliminates the individual farm coverage under ARC, must use county‐wide data • Makes no major changes

Commodityprograms

• Maintains reference prices for almost all commodities in Price Loss Coverage

• Reduces Adjusted Gross Income limit from $900,000 to $700,000

• Does not limit payouts

SNAP• Creates a 20 hour per week work requirement

for ABWDs• Increases the ABWD age from 50 to 60

• Makes no major changes

Conservation programs

• Suspends new enrollment in the Conservation Stewardship Program

• Increases EQIP spending• Increases CRP acres from 24 million to 29 million

• Reduces acres covered under CSP and funding for EQIP programs

• Increases CRP acres from 24 million to 25 million

USDA structure • Makes no major changes • Recreates the position of under secretary for rural development

Bipartisan support• No Democrats offered amendments to the bill

in committee• All Democrats voted against the bill in

committee and on the House floor

• Many Democratic amendments were offered and adopted in committee

• All Democrats on the Agriculture Committee voted for the bill

Hemp legalization • Does not address the issue • Adds Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R‐KY) hemp legalization bill


Senate members of the Farm Bill conference (9 total)

Pat Roberts (R‐KS)

Mitch McConnell (R‐KY)

John Hoeven (R‐ND)

Joni Ernst (R‐IA)

Mike Boozman (R‐AR)

Debbie Stabenow (D‐MI)

Sherrod Brown (D‐OH)

Patrick Leahy (D‐VT)

Heidi Heitkamp (D‐ND)


House members of the Farm Bill conference (47 total)

Agriculture

Republicans1. Mike Conway (TX-11)2. Glenn Thompson (PA-5)3. Bob Goodlatte (VA-6)4. Frank Lucas (OK-3)5. Mike Rogers (AL-3)6. Austin Scott (GA-3)7. Rick Crawford (AR-1)8. Vicky Hartzler (MO-4)9. Rodney Davis (IL-13)10.Ted Yoho (FL-3)11. David Rouzer (NC-7)12. Roger Marshall (KS-1)13. Jodey Arrington (TX-19)

Democrats1. Collin Peterson (MN-7)2. David Scott (GA-13)3. Jim Costa (CA-16)4. Tim Walz (MN-1)5. Marcia Fudge (OH-11)6. Jim McGovern (MA-2)7. Filemon Vela (TX-34)8. Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM-

1) 9. Ann Kuster (NH-2)10.Tom O’Halleran (AZ-1)

Foreign Affairs

Republicans1. Ed Royce (CA-39)2. Steve Chabot (OH-1)Democrats1. Eliot Engel (NY-16)

Natural Resources

Republicans1. Rob Bishop (UT-1)2. Bruce Westerman (AR-4)Democrats1. Raul Grijalva (RM, AZ-3)

Science, Space, & Tech.

Republicans1. Ralph Abraham (LA-5)2. Neal Dunn (FL-2)Democrats1. Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30)

Education and Workforce

Republicans1. Virginia Foxx (NC-5)2. Rick Allen (GA-12)Democrats1. Alma Adams (NC-12)

Energy and Commerce

Republicans1. John Shimkus (IL-15)2. Kevin Cramer (ND-AL)Democrats1. Paul Tonko (NY-20)

Financial Services

Republicans1. Jeb Hensarling (TX-5)2. Sean Duffy (WI-7)Democrats1. Maxine Waters (CA-43)

Trans. & Infrastructure

Republicans1. Jeff Denham (CA-10)2. Bob Gibbs (OH-7)Democrats1. Cheri Bustos (IL-17)

Oversight & Gov’t Reform

Democrats1. Stacey Plaskett (VI)


Reauthorization of major programs

• Higher Education Act• NDAA• Farm Bill• FAA

FY2019 appropriations

Trump administration nominations

Supreme Court vacancy

Unfinished business for the 115th Congress


Reauthorization of major government programs

National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)• Defines the next year’s military strategy and

funding levels, and usually includes reforms to other government entities

Higher Education Act (HEA)• Authorizes many major education

programs, usually for four years

Farm Bill• Authorizes through 2023 most agricultural

support and food assistance programs, including SNAP

• Also includes some rural infrastructure spending

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)• Approves five years of funding for the FAA

in addition to other policy reforms including drones and funding for some infrastructure projects

Resolved Differences

Full House

Full Senate

House Committee

Senate Committee


Full House

Full Senate

House Committee

Senate Committee


Full House

Full Senate

House Committee

Senate Committee


Full House

Full Senate

House Committee

Senate Committee

May 24, 2018: H.R. 5515 passed House (351-66)June 18, 2018: Passed Senate with amendment (85-

10)August 13, 2018: Signed by the president

June 21, 2018: H.R. 2 passed House (213-211)June 28, 2018: Passed Senate with amendment (86-11)

Dec. 1, 2017: H.R. 4508 passed House Education and the Workforce Committee

April 27, 2018: H.R. 4 passed House (393-13)


Legislation to watch: FY2019 appropriations (1/2)

Subcommittee Full committee Full House/Senate Conference Signed

President

5/9/18

5/22/18

5/16/18

5/24/18

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

Agriculture

President

5/9/18

6/12/18

5/17/18

6/14/18

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

Commerce/ Justice/ Science

President

6/13/18

6/26/18

6/13/18

6/28/18

6/28/18

8/23/18

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

Defense

President

5/7/18

5/22/18

5/16/18

5/24/18

6/8/18

6/25/18

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

Energy and Water

Financial Services

President

6/13/18

6/19/18

6/13/18

6/21/18

7/19/18

8/1/18

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

Homeland Security

President

7/19/18

6/19/18

7/25/18

6/21/18

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

House

Senate


Legislation to watch: FY2019 appropriations (2/2)

Subcommittee Full committee Full House/Senate Conference Signed

Interior & Environment President

5/15/18

6/12/18

6/6/18

6/14/18

7/19/18

8/1/18

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

Labor/HHS/

EducationPresident

6/15/18

6/26/18

7/11/18

6/28/18

N/A

8/23/18

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

Legislative Branch

President

4/26/18

6/12/18

5/8/18

6/14/18

6/8/18

6/25/18

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

Military Construction/Veterans Affairs

President

4/26/18

6/5/18

5/8/18

6/7/18

6/8/18

6/25/18

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

State/Foreign

OperationsPresident

6/13/18

6/19/18

6/20/18

6/21/18

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

House

Senate

Transportation/HUD President

5/16/18

6/5/18

5/23/18

6/7/18

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

House

Senate


The Trump administration has about half of key staff in place, with some top-level officials still missing

Status of key positions requiring Senate confirmation

■ No nominee ■ Awaiting nomination ■ Awaiting confirmation ■ Confirmed

AS OF SEPTEMBER 4, 2018

156

7

185

357

Vacant cabinet secretaries:• Environmental Protection Agency (no

nominee)

Departments without a deputy secretary:• Commerce (Karen Dunn Kelley

nominated)• Treasury (Justin George Muzinich

nominated)• Veterans Affairs (no nominee)• Homeland Security (no nominee)• Small Business Administration (no

nominee)


2018 midterm elections overview

A look ahead to the 2018 congressional and gubernatorial elections


‐45

‐29

‐18

‐48

‐4

‐47

‐12

‐48

‐15

‐26

‐5

‐8

‐52

+5

+8

‐30

‐63

‐13

1946

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

The president’s party has lost an average of 25 seats in midterm elections since World War II

President’s party gain/loss of seats in HouseVITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS

2010: Democrats lose control of the House after passing the ACA

■ Democrats ■ Republicans

1994: Democrats lose their House majority due to health reform plans and Gingrich’s “Contract with America”


The president’s party has lost Senate seats in 19 of the last 26 midterm elections

President’s party gain/loss of seats in SenateVITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS

5

10

2

1

1

1

2014

1914

Surge and decline theoryWhen presidents are elected or reelected, their party picks up House and Senate seats, causing them to be overexposed in the following midterm election, or six years later in the Senate

■ Democrats ■ Republicans


Recent midterm wave elections

1994 electionsPresident: Bill Clinton (D)

Republican gains:54 seats in the House8 seats in the Senate

2010 elections President: Barack Obama (D)

Republican gains: 63 seats in the House 6 seats in the Senate

2006 electionsPresident: George W. Bush (R)

Democratic gains: 31 seats in the House6 seats in the Senate


Presidents with a sub-50% approval rating lose an average of 40 seats in the midterms

Presidential job approval vs. midterm results since 1966

49%

57%

47%

52%

43%

63%58%

46%

66% 63%

39%45%

42%

1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

-47

-12

-48

-15-26

-5 -8

-52

5 8

-30

-63

-13

Trump Job Approval

43.3%RCP Average: August 30,

2018

Job ApprovalOver 60%50%-60%Under 50%

Average Change+3 Seats-12 Seats-40 Seats


Current partisan breakdown of the 115th Congress

House of Representatives Senate

Total Republicans 51

Total Democrats/Independents 49

Vacancies 1

Total Republicans 236

Total Democrats 193

Vacancies 6


Based on 2016 results, Democrats need a 5%-7.5% swing to recapture the House

23

68

37

15

5

13

42

26

17

10

District won by otherparty's presidential

nominee

Less than 20%Less than 15%Less than 10%Less than 5%

■ Dem.-held seats ■ GOP-held seats

MARGIN OF VICTORY CALCULATED BY SUBTRACTING WINNER % FROM 2ND HIGHEST OPPONENT

Vulnerable seats based on 2016 House results

House members with the largest war chests for the 2018 midterm elections

Top 10 House candidates with the most cash on hand

34

AS OF JUNE 30, 2018

■ Democrat ■ Republican

$6,108,635

$4,533,753

$4,362,699

$4,342,230

$4,170,667

$4,135,573

$4,004,938

$3,449,785

$3,388,132

$3,203,173

DEVIN NUNES (R-CA22)

JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-NJ5)

RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-IL8)

ADAM SCHIFF (D-CA28)

JOE KENNEDY, III (D-MA4)

KEVIN MCCARTHY (R-CA23)

LLOYD DOGGETT (D-TX35)

RICHARD NEAL (D-MA1)

ANN WAGNER (R-MO2)

GERRY CONNOLLY (D-VA11)

35

Trump’s endorsees have won almost all contested races so far

Pennsylvania State Rep. Rick Saccone is the sole general election exception

• Saccone lost the March 13, 2018 PA-18 special election to Democrat Conor Lamb 49.86%-49.53%

Businessman Foster Friess is the sole primary election exception this year

• Friess lost the August 22, 2018 Wyoming gubernatorial primary to Wyoming State Treasurer Mark Gordon 32% to 25%

Election Date Endorsee Result AZ 08 2/27/18 Debby Lesko Special election winTX SEN 3/7/18 Ted Cruz Primary winPA 18 3/14/18 Rick Saccone Special election lossCA GOV 6/5/18 John Cox Primary winPA SEN 6/12/18 Lou Barletta Primary winMS SEN 6/12/18 Roger Wicker Primary winND SEN 6/12/18 Kevin Cramer Primary winNV GOV 6/12/18 Adam Laxalt Primary winSC 01 6/12/18 Katie Arrington Primary winSC GOV 6/12/18 Henry McMaster Primary winNY 11 6/26/18 Dan Donovan Primary winUT SEN 6/26/18 Mitt Romney Primary winAL 02 7/17/18 Martha Roby Primary winGA GOV 7/24/18 Brian Kemp Primary winTN SEN 8/2/18 Marsha Blackburn Primary winTN 08 8/2/18 David Kustoff Primary winMI SEN 8/7/18 John James Primary winOH 12 8/7/18 Troy Balderson Special election win KS 03 8/7/18 Kevin Yoder Primary winMI GOV 8/7/18 Bill Schuette Primary winWY SEN 8/20/18 John Barrasso Primary winWY GOV 8/20/18 Foster Friess Primary lossAZ GOV 8/28/18 Doug Ducey Primary winFL 01 8/28/18 Matt Gaetz Primary winFL GOV 8/28/18 Ron DeSantis Primary winLA 03 11/6/18 Clay Higgins tbdTX GOV 11/6/18 Greg Abbott tbd

Three open Republican seats are rated “Likely Democratic,” and four open Republican seats are rated “Lean Democratic”

36

Representatives not seeking re-election in D-leaning districts

Solid Democratic

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (D+5)

(R-FL27)

Lean Democratic

NAME OF RETIRING INCUMBENT (“PARTISAN VOTER INDEX”), (PARTY-STATE-DISTRICT)

D+33 Luis Gutierrez (D-IL04)D+32 John Conyers (D-MI13)†D+31 Robert Brady (D-PA04)D+19 Gene Green (D-TX29)D+17 Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI01)*

Beto O’Rourke (D-TX16)*D+9 Jared Polis (D-CO02)

Niki Tsongas (D-MA03)D+7 Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM01)D+6 John Delaney (D-MD06)D+4 Sandy Levin (D-MI09)

Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ09)*

Elizabeth Esty (D-CT05)*

Likely Democratic

Martha McSally (R+1)

(R-AZ02)*

Darrell Issa (R+1)(R-CA49)

Ruben Kihuen (D+3)

(D-NV04)

Ryan Costello (R+2)

(R-PA06)

Carol Shea-Porter (R+2)

(D-NH01)

Jacky Rosen (R+2)

(D-NV03)*

Frank LoBiondo (R+1)

(R-NJ02)

Rodney Frelinghuysen(R+3)

(R-NJ11)

Patrick Meehan (R+1)

(R-PA05) †

Republican Toss-Ups

Five open Republican seats and two open Democratic seats are rated “Toss Ups”

37

Representatives not seeking re-election

Solid RepublicanLean Republican

R+9 Joe Barton (R-TX06)R+11 Tim Murphy (R-PA18) †R+13 Trent Franks (R-AZ08) †

Tom Rooney (R-FL17)Gregg Harper (R-MS03)Sam Johnson (R-TX03)Blake Farenthold (R-TX27) †Bob Goodlatte (R-VA06)

R+14 Kristi Noem (R-SD-AL)*Lou Barletta (R-PA09)*

R+15 Trey Gowdy (R-SC04)R+16 Kevin Cramer (R-ND At large)*

Jeb Hensarling (R-TX05)R+17 Todd Rokita (R-IN04)*

Jim Bridenstine (R-OK01) †

R+18 Luke Messer (R-IN06)*R+20 Marsha Blackburn (R-TN07)*

Jimmy Duncan (R-TN02)R+21 Raul Labrador (R-ID01)*R+22 Bill Shuster (R-PA13)R+24 Diane Black (R-TN06)*

Lynn Jenkins (R+10)(R-KS02)

Steve Pearce (R+6)(R-NM02)*

Dennis Ross (R+6)(R-FL15)

David Trott (R+4)(R-MI11)

Dave Reichert (even)(R-WA08)

Likely Republican

NAME OF RETIRING INCUMBENT (“PARTISAN VOTER INDEX”), (PARTY-STATE-DISTRICT)

Paul Ryan (R+5)(R-WI01)

Tom Garrett (R+6)(R-VA05)

Democratic Toss-Ups

Tim Walz (R+5)(D-MN01)*

Rick Nolan (R+4)(D-MN08)*

Ed Royce (even)(R-CA39)

Evan Jenkins (R+23)*(R-WV03)

R+7 Ron DeSantis (R-FL06)R+10 Lamar Smith (R-TX21)R+11 Ted Poe (R-TX02)R+14 Conor Lamb (D-PA14)

Robert Pittenger (R+7)(R-NC09)

Mark Sanford (R+10)(R-SC01)

Brain drain? Many Republican committee chairs will not seek reelection in 2018, as well as Speaker Ryan

38

Republican committee and subcommittee chairs retiring after 2018REPUBLICAN CONFERENCE RULES LIMIT CHAIRMANSHIPS TO 6 YEARS

JudiciaryBob Goodlatte (R-VA6)

Financial ServicesJeb Hensarling (R-TX5)

Aviation Sub.Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ2)

Space, Science & TechnologyLamar Smith (R-TX21)

Transportation & InfrastructureBill Shuster (R-PA9)

VA Appropriations Sub.*Charlie Dent (R-PA15)

AdministrationGregg Harper (R-MS3)

BudgetDiane Black (R-TN6)

Foreign AffairsEd Royce (R-CA39)

Term-limited and retiring

Retiring but not term-limited

Term-limited but still running

Homeland SecurityMichael McCaul (R-TX10)

AppropriationsRodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ11)

OversightTrey Gowdy (R-SC4)

Speaker of the HousePaul Ryan (R-WI1)

The 2018 election will determine who will replace Paul Ryan as speaker in the 116th Congress

39

Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)• Minority Leader – No. 1 House Democrat• Previous experience as speaker• Largest Dem. fundraiser• Has led House Dems since 2003

Steny Hoyer (D-MD)• Minority Whip – No. 2 House Democrat• Has been deputy to Pelosi for 15 years

Tim Ryan (D-OH)• Long shot because he is not in

leadership• Ranking member of the

Appropriations Subcommittee for the Legislative Branch

• Unsuccessfully challenged Pelosi in 2016

Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)• Majority Leader – No. 2 House

Republican• Has ties to President Trump• Major fundraiser for House Republicans• Lacked support in 2015 from Freedom

Caucus

Steve Scalise (R-LA)• Majority Whip – No. 3 House Republican• Former Republican Study Committee

chair• First elected in 2008• Has some support from conservatives

Mark Meadows (R-NC)• Chair of the House Freedom Caucus• First elected in 2012• Campaigned with Pres. Trump in NC

Frontrunners in the race for speaker of the House

40

Pelosi faces increasing opposition, with over 40 House candidates saying they would not back her for Speaker

• If Democrats win the majority by just 1 vote (218-217), Pelosi would need 109 votes to win her party’s nomination

• In 2016, she won the minority leader position against Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) on a vote of 134-63

Potential problems for Pelosi:

• Unlike party positions such as minority and majority leader, the whole House formally votes for the speaker

• Parties usually vote by secret ballot beforehand to choose their nominee, and then they vote en bloc that candidate

• However, over 40 Democratic House candidates have said they will not support Pelosi for Speaker of the House, which could pose problems if they only win a small majority

2018 Senate candidates with the largest war chests for the midterm elections

Top 10 Senate candidates with the most cash on hand

41

AS OF JUNE 30, 2018

■ Democrat ■ Republican

$15,627,661

$13,961,358

$13,699,130

$12,273,208

$11,094,189

$10,721,977

$10,692,748

$9,879,748

$9,592,965

$9,299,365

ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA)

BETO O'ROURKE (D-TX)

BILL NELSON (D-FL)

CLAIRE MCCASKILL (D-MO)

SHERROD BROWN (D-OH)

KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-NY)

TIM KAINE (D-VA)*

BOB CASEY, JR. (D-PA)

DEBBIE STABENOW (D-MI)

TED CRUZ (R-TX)

Democrats hold 8 of the 10 most vulnerable Senate seats in the 2018 election cycle

42

NJ Hotline’s 2018 Senate power rankingsSeats most vulnerable to change parties

1. Nevada: Dean Heller (R)Challenger: US Rep. Jacky Rosen (D)

2. Indiana: Joe Donnelly (D)Challengers: Mike Braun (R)

3. Missouri*: Claire McCaskill (D)Challenger: MO Attorney General Josh Hawley (R)

4. North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D)Potential challenger: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R)

5. Florida: Bill Nelson (D)Challengers: FL Gov. Rick Scott (R)

6. Arizona*: (Jeff Flake – Retiring) Martha McSally & Kelli Ward (R)Challenger: US Rep. Kristen Sinema (D – frontrunner)

7. West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D)Challenger: WV Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R)

8. Wisconsin*: Tammy Baldwin (D)Challengers: Kevin Nicholson & Leah Vukmir (R)

9. Montana: Jon Tester (D)Challenger: MT state auditor Matt Rosendale (R)

10. Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D)Challenger: US Rep Jim Renacci (R)

■ Seat held by Republican ■ Seat held by Democrat■ Top five states most likely to flip

3

12

6

7

5

4

8

9

10

Of the 26 Democratic senators up for re-election, Trump won 10 of their states – and five by double digits

Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate

43

VA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IL

LATX

OK

ID

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT20%

SD

IA

UT

AR

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

WI0.7%

OH8.1%

PA0.7%

IN19%

ND36%

WV42%MO

19%

FL1.2%

MI0.3%

MN

NV2.4%

HI

Clinton victory Trump victory ■ Democratic senator up for re‐election ■ Republican senator up for re‐election

Jon Tester (D) won in 2012 by 4%

Claire McCaskill (D) won in 2012 by 16%

Dean Heller (R) won in 2012 by 1.2%

Heidi Heitkamp (D) won in 2012 by 0.9%

Joe Donnelly (D) won in 2012 by 5.7%

Sherrod Brown (D) won in 2012 by 6.0%

Joe Manchin (D) won in 2012 by 14%

Bill Nelson (D) won in 2012 by 13%

Bob Casey, Jr. (D) won in 2012 by 9.1%

PERCENTS INSIDE THE STATE REPRESENT BY HOW MUCH THE OTHER PARTY’S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WON IN 2016

Debbie Stabenow (D) won in 2012 by 21%Tammy Baldwin (D)

won in 2012 by 5.6%

Three Republican Senate seats are now considered among the 10 most likely to flip in November

44

Hotline’s 2018 Senate power rankings1. Nevada:

Incumbent: Dean Heller (R)Challenger: Rep. Jacky Rosen (D)

2. North Dakota : Incumbent: Heidi Heitkamp (D)Challenger: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R)

3. Indiana:Incumbent: Joe Donnelly (D)Challengers: Mike Braun (R)

4. Missouri:Incumbent: Claire McCaskill (D)Challenger: AG Josh Hawley (R)

5. Arizona: Current: Jeff Flake (R), retiring Potential challengers: Rep. Martha McSally (R)

Rep. Krysten Sinema (D)

4

1 3

■ Seat held by Republican ■ Seat held by Democrat■ Top five states most likely to flip

6. Florida — Bill Nelson (D)7. West Virginia — Joe Manchin (D)8. Montana — Jon Tester (D)9. Tennessee — Bob Corker (R), retiring10. Wisconsin — Tammy Baldwin (D)

2

5

In 2018, Republicans must defend 12 governorships without an incumbent running, as opposed to only four for Democrats

2018 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status

45

■ Dem. incumbent (5) ■ Dem. open* (4) ■ Ind. incumbent (1) ■ GOP incumbent (13) ■ GOP open* (13) ■ No election (14)

MD

MA

RI

CT

DE

NJ

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MIWI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

VT

HI

NH

Seats most vulnerable to change parties

1. Illinois: Bruce Rauner (R)• Challenger: JB Pritzker (D)

2. New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) (retiring)• Challengers: Rep. Steve Pearce (R)

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)

3. Maine: Paul LePage (R) (retiring)• Challengers: Janet Mills (D)

Shawn Moody (R)

4. Alaska: Bill Walker (I)• Challengers: Mike Dunleavy (R)

Mark Begich (D)

5. Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) (retiring)• Challengers: Steve Sisolak (D)

Adam Laxalt (R)

Democrats have a shot at picking up several governorships

■ Democrat incumbent ■ Republican incumbent

Hotline’s power rankings for gubernatorial elections

6. Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) (retiring)7. Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) (retiring)8. Florida: Rick Scott (R) (retiring)9. Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) (retiring)10. Ohio: John Kasich (R) (retiring)

46


John FarnerGovernment and Public

Affairs [email protected]

John Farner, Irrigation Association California ...calirrigation.com/events_80_1820082453.pdf · ©...

Documents

Transcript of John Farner, Irrigation Association California ...calirrigation.com/events_80_1820082453.pdf · ©...