Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture Climate outlook for 2014/15 October 2014.
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Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture Climate outlook for 2014/15 October 2014
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Transcript of Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture Climate outlook for 2014/15 October 2014.
Johan van den BergSantam Agriculture
Climate outlook for 2014/15October 2014
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-2 0 0
-1 5 0
-1 0 0
-5 0
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
Ra
infa
ll de
via
tion
(mm
)
RSA rainfall deviation (mm) from average
Example of El Nino
Example of La Nina
Forecast for October 2014 –different forecasts D
iffer
ent m
odel
s
eutral Neutral
eutral
Forecast for December 2014 –different forecasts D
iffer
ent m
odel
s
Neutral
eutral
Forecast for February 2015 –different forecasts D
iffer
ent m
odel
s
Neutral
Indian Ocean
Indian Ocean Dipole Index
L HH
LHH L
IOD Index forecast
IOD Index forecast
IOD Index forecast
WET
DRY VERY DRY
WET/ NORMAL
La Nina
La Nina
El Nino
NeutralNeutral/El Nino
WET
DRY VERY DRY
WET/ NORMAL
La Nina
La Nina
El Nino
NeutralNeutral/El Nino
Normal effect of El Nino and Indian Ocean on rainfall
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Central to western Summer Rainfall Area
Rela
tive
Effec
t
No effect
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present:Re
lativ
e Eff
ect
No effect
Eastern Summer Rainfall Area
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJunMayAprMarFebJan
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino presentRe
lativ
e Eff
ect
No effect
Winter Rainfall Area
LHH L
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IODRe
lativ
e Eff
ect
IOD
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD and El NinoRe
lativ
e Eff
ect
El Nino
IOD
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on rainfall with Negative IOD and El NinoRe
lativ
e Eff
ect
El Nino
IOD
Combined effect
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Re
lativ
e Eff
ect Dry spell
Normal
Combined effect
Combined effect
No effect
IF POSITIVE MODE + EL NINO……
L HH
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on rainfall with Positive IODHigh cyclone frequency
Rela
tive
Effec
t
No effect
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Central to western Summer Rainfall Area
Rela
tive
Effec
t
No effect
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino + Positive IOD Re
lativ
e Eff
ect
Drought
Good start to season
El Nino
IOD
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino + Positive IOD Re
lativ
e Eff
ect
Drought
Good start to season
Not exp
ecte
d for 2
014/
15
No effect
Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDecNovOctSepAugJul
Positive effect
Negative effect
Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Re
lativ
e Eff
ect Dry spell
Normal
Combined effect
Combined effect
No effect
Thanks
