Joel Dahné

Swedish meteorological and

hydrological institute

In this presentaion

Goals (deliverables)

Indata

HYPE model

Calibration/Evaluation

Simulation results for Future

climate and reduction scenario

Goals (deliverables)

-Input to oceanographic

models

Predicted discharge at catchment

outlets 1960-2100

Net load of N and P to the sea,

1960-2100

Indata for a pan-Baltic model

• Topography: HYDRO1k• Landuse and Soils:

ECOCLIMAPEuropean Soils Database

• Forcing Data (meteorology): ERAMESAN (Patched)ECHAM5(KNMI) + RCA3(SMHI)

•Agricultural Practices Data: CAPRIS-data(agg-eco-model)

•Atmospheric Deposition Data: MATCH model (SMHI)

•Point sources and wwtEEA, WHO, EUROSTAT

•Observed water quality (N & P):EEA

•Observed RunoffGRDC + BALTEX

Runoff

Topography Meteorology Landuse

Quality

EEA

Program for raster indata preparation WHIST

5128 sub catchments

Median size

= 325km2

HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model

S 1

S 3

S 2

A ltitude.

Soil classes (7)

+

Landuse classes (13)

=

SLC classes (55)

Total: 78 000 Hydrological

response units in 5128 sub

catchments

Sources for N&P:

• Fertilization

• Atm. Dep.

• Residues

• Mineralization

Sinks for N&P:

• Denitrification

• Crop up-take

• Adsorption

Fertilizer,residuals

--

Regional groundwater flow

Macropore flow

Discharge

Evapotranspiration

Surface flow

PrecipitationSnow melt

Crop uptake

N&P storage

N&P storage

Atmosphericdeposition

Denitrification

N&P storage

Processes in hydrological response units

Calibration/Evaluation

Calibration of Water model

against observed daily

streamflow.

Calibration of Water quality model

against observed seasonal and

annual concentration in rivers

Most parameters dependent on

soil or landuse. => not calibrated

to regions!

Proper evaluation yet to be done

RIVER AREA km2

1 VISTULA 1939352 ODER 1112423 NEMANUS 979464 DAUGUVA 900015 NARVA 582166 KEMIJOKI 556477 GÖTAÄLV 512748 GLAMA 414329 MUONIO 3920610 DALÄLVEN 2910911 KOKEMAENKOJI 2730312 UMEÄLV 2639413 INDALSÄLVEN 2581014 LJUSNAN 2037515 NORRSTRÖM 1925716 MOTALA STRÖM 1502617 LIELUPE 1409018 BÖLEBYN 1319119 LIVAJOKI 1258820 SKELLEFTEÄLV 1229421 VENTA 847722 PÄRNU 596723 KYRONJOKI 482924 SIIKAJOKI 466925 LAPUANJOKI 455526 LJUNGBYÅN 429927 EMÅN 417828 WARNOW 397129 PEENE 380930 GIDEÄLVEN 373631 HELGE Å 364232 INA 363933 ÄTRAN 303334 KASARI 263935 LESTIJOKI 263836 AURAJOKI 199537 RICKLEÅN 185138 SLUPIA 167339 UECKER 157440 EURAJOKI 146041 TUDE A 57942 PARSETA 443

Some prelimary results

River:

Oder

River:

Kokemäenjoki

Relative error [%]

Compared to 41 rivers

Total Phosphorus

Yearly load to sea

Relative error [%]

Compared to 41 rivers

Total Nitrogen

Yearly load to sea

1971-2000 2071-2100

Load as today

Reduced load

Clim. scen

•Climate scenario: GCM: ECHAM5(KNMI), RCM: RCA3(SMHI)

•Reduction scenario: Loads from Point sources and waste water reduced by 20%

Referens

Load

Going from observation based forcing data to Regional Climate Models

1971-2000 2071-2100

Load as today

Reduced load

•Climate scenario: ECHAM5(KNMI), RCA3(SMHI)

•Reduction scenario: Point sources and WWT reduced by 20%

RCM

Referens

Load

1971-2000 2071-2100

Load as today

Reduced load

RCM

•Climate scenario: ECHAM5(KNMI), RCA3(SMHI)

•Reduction scenario: Point sources and WWT reduced by 20%

Referens

Load

1971-2000 2071-2100

Load as today

Reduced load

•Climate scenario: ECHAM5(KNMI), RCA3(SMHI)

•Reduction scenario: Point sources and WWT reduced by 20%

RCM

Referens

Load

Evaluating the combined effects of nutrient load reduction and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea catchment

Preliminary conclusions

• Climate run:-Increase in phosphorus load due to more intense rainfall-Decrease in nitrogen load due to deacreased flow => increase in retention time.

Combined effects: Nutrient loads will decrease

Future work

• Validation of results => Further calibration and model improvement.

• Validate that the model can reproduce changes in external loads of nutrients

• Reduction scenarios from HELCOM-BSAP

• GCM/RCM runs

• …

Thank you for your attention

SMHI - Hydrological research department