Joe L. OutlawProfessor & Extension Economist

Co-Director, AFPC

Train the TrainerKansas City, MO

September 4, 2014

Something to Think About and the Decision Aid Developed by the

NAAFP

A Few Things to Think About

• All of the decisions required in the bill add to the producer’s ability to tailor the bill to fit their operations – not just add to complication

• There will be plenty of time to gather needed info, analyze their options, and make sign-up decisions – no reason to panic

• The Title I decision is a life of the farm bill decision

• Two kinds of producers – those who want to maximize their government payments and those that want to manage risk– It is one thing to use point estimates to show how

programs work – quite another for evaluating alternatives

My Guess at the Sign-up Timeline

Annual Sign-up

Fix Planted Acres with FSA

Reallocate Bases & Update Yields

Choice Between ARC & PLC

August 2014

June2015Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

5.283333333333345.28333333333334

4.92068566667563

4.210548116269174.10188354267849

Aug. 2014 FAPRI PricesBenchmark Price86%76%Ref Price

$/bu

Producer Price Outlook a Factor in ARC/PLC Decision (Corn Ex.)

FAPRI Price Projections

Yields could also offset

Discussion of Decision Aid(s)

• Our group (NAAFP) has been working on this for more than 1.5 years

• Applied for and received funding from USDA to develop nation-wide decision aid

• Decided it was in the best interest of our producers to make our decision aid available prior to signing contract with USDA https://www.afpc.tamu.edu/models/decisionaid.php

Thanks!!!

Joe Outlawjoutlaw@tamu.edu

979-845-5913WWW.AFPC.TAMU.EDU

@AFPCTAMU