Joe Kiely Vice President of Operations, Ports-to-Plains Alliance Progressive 15 Fall Meeting April...
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Transcript of Joe Kiely Vice President of Operations, Ports-to-Plains Alliance Progressive 15 Fall Meeting April...
Joe Kiely
Vice President of Operations, Ports-to-Plains Alliance
Progressive 15
Fall MeetingApril 22, 2010
Ports-to-Plains Alliance
It’s about connections ….
A pipeline!
Why Does the Alliance Matter?
Nearly half of U.S. oil and gas productionSource: U.S. Department of Energy
Why Does the Alliance Matter?
Primary pipeline corridor for North America’s oil
Why Does the Alliance Matter?
7 of America’s top 10 wind statesSource: U.S. Department of Energy
Why Does the Alliance Matter?
America’s agricultural heartland.Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
Why Does the Alliance Matter?
Percent Population Change – 2000-2009Source: U.S. Census Bureau
It’s about a Common Economy …Energy … Agriculture …Trade …Tourism …
It’s about an Energy Economy … Its Jobs!
Energy Sector as Jobs Provider• Oil and Gas Industry 9.2 million jobs• Alberta Oil Sands 343,000 new jobs in US – 2011-15• Electricity Generation 250,000 direct jobs• Ethanol Industry supports 220,000 jobs
Energy = Jobs
The American Economy Relies on Affordable, Reliable Energy• More than 3.7 million manufacturing jobs lost since 2007
• High energy prices a major factor• 4,200 trucking companies closed due to high diesel prices between 2Q 2007 and 4Q 2008 • 10 Airlines shut down due to high jet fuel prices in 2008 alone
• Over 360,000 jobs lost
Energy = Jobs
Oil & Oil & Oil & Oil Sands Oil SandsGas Gas Gas Development Development
Jobs GDP $B % GDP Jobs in U.S. Jobs New GDP $BMontana 34,210 3.3 8.90% 1,200 0.081North Dakota 27,914 2.8 9.60% 800 0.068South Dakota 19,942 1.5 4.60% 1,000 0.086Wyoming 71,063 8.4 29.40% 800 0.087Nebraska 49,784 5.1 6.80% 2,300 0.189Colorado 190,408 24.1 9.30% 6,000 0.583New Mexico 88,814 8.3 12.20% 2,000 0.179Oklahoma 348,627 47.8 31.30% 4,000 0.317Texas 1,772,335 293.8 24.20% 27,300 2.800
2,603,097 395.1 45,400 4.390
US Jobs Associated with Canadian Energy343,000
Energy Jobs along the Ports-to-Plains Corridor
PartnershipForEnergy.com
A Measure of the OpportunityRotary Rig Count Period %
10/ 2/ 2009 4/ 16/ 2010 Change ChangeAlberta 131 60 -71 -54.20%Colorado 39 51 12 30.77%Montana 4 8 4 100.00%Nebraska 1 2 1 100.00%New Mexico 46 49 3 6.52%North Dakota 47 95 48 102.13%Oklahoma 74 119 45 60.81%South Dakota 0 1 1 0.00%Texas 388 639 251 64.69%Wyoming 38 35 -3 -7.89%
768 1,059 291 37.89%67.27% of U.S. Total49.59% of Canada Total
Source: Baker Hughes
US Generation Mix (Thru to Nov. 2009)*
Nuclear20.2%
Other Renewables
3.9%Coal
44.4%
Hydroelectric6.9%Natural Gas
23.6%
Oil & Other1.0%
*From Energy Information Administration
Wind & Solar Facts
Wind Facts*:
United States wind power generation now totals 35,159 MW and is produced in 35 states
Powers close to 9.7 million American homes.
Capacity grew 39% between 2008 and 2009.
The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) estimates 38 manufacturing companies were brought online, announced or expanded in the United States in 2009.
The United States ranks 1st in the world in wind power generation above China and Germany for 2009, per the Global Wind Energy Center (GWEC).
* Numbers provided by AWEA unless otherwise noted.
Wind & Solar Facts
Solar Facts*:
United States solar power generation now totals 8,775 MW
Powers close to 1.5 million American homes.
Capacity grew about 10% between 2007 and 2008
* Numbers provided by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) unless otherwise noted.
Utilization Dictates Transmission Rates (HPX)Utilization Dictates Transmission Rates (HPX)
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
EF
FE
CT
IVE
$/M
WH
RA
TE
NM-AZ @ $5.00/kW-mo
CO-NM @ $4.00/kW-mo
WY-CO @ $3.25/kW-mo
RENEWABLES-ONLY MIX OF RESOURCES
TRANSMISSION LINE UTILIATION
TR
AN
SM
ISS
ION
RA
TE
$/M
Wh
How to Improve Transmission Utilization
• Geographic Diversity (wind in multiple locations)
• Blending wind with solar and other renewables
• Use of gas-fired generation for “firming” and meeting load
Local Market versus Export MarketLocal Market versus Export Market
• Estimated wind energy potential exceeds local needs.– NREL estimate of Ports-to-Plains states: 5 to 9 million MW– US installed generating capacity 2008 (all fuels) 1.1 million MW
• Everyone wants to export to either California or southeast• States are trying to be first to market:
– Competing with each other for economic development opportunities– Want to change transmission planning philosophy to focus on wind
export in addition to reliability• Export scenarios will put tremendous stress on existing transmission built
primarily to serve local load.• Electric system stability will limit installed wind generation installation to a
fraction of the theoretical capability.
What About Those Oil Sands? -- The OpportunityWhat About Those Oil Sands? -- The Opportunity
• There are 1.7 trillion barrels of oil in the Canadian Oil Sands
• Over half of this potential resides in the Athabasca McMurray Sandstone
• Only 20% can be mined – the rest is too deep
Ft McMurray٭
Fort McMurray
Oil Sands Reclamation: Before and After Oil Sands Reclamation: Before and After
2000 2006
Energy Development in AlbertaEnergy Development in Alberta• Alberta’s oil sands in context
Global Crude Oil Reserves by CountryGlobal Crude Oil Reserves by Country
Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2008
2130
3644
60
9299102
115
136
175
264
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait VenezuelaAbu Dhabi Russia Libya Nigeria Kazhakhstan UnitedStates
billion b
arr
els
Includes 1
70 billion barre
ls
of oil s
ands rese
rves
OtherAccessibleReserves
OtherAccessibleReserves
OtherAccessibleReserves
State ownedor controlled
Accessible
Canada’sOil Sands
World OilReserves
OtherAccessibleReserves
53%
47%
Accessible
Oil Reserves
Significant Source of US SupplySignificant Source of US Supply
Bitumen underSAGD
Water
Cream
Olive Oil
Maple Syrup
Ketchup
Peanut Butter
Vis
cosi
ty (
cP)
Typical oil in the ground
Bitumen at virgin reservoir conditions
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 50 100 150 200 250
Temperature (deg C)
The Challenge: Viscosity
Oil Sands: In Situ Recovery Oil Sands: In Situ Recovery
Cyclic Steam Process
Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage
In Situ Recovery:
• 80% of resource
• 45% of production
• No tailings ponds
• No water from the Athabasca River
Transportation CorridorsTransportation Corridors
Slide 29
Why Colorado? …
It’s about Domestic Trade … Over $10.47 billion
Domestic -- 2007
Rail Change
2002-2007
Truck Change
2002-2007Exports Rail TruckMontana 747 7% -100% 62%Nebraska 1,117 11% 0% 55%New Mexico 1,926 18% 0% 195%North Dakota 120 1% 0% 100%Oklahoma 420 4% 0% 75%South Dakota 227 2% 0% 21%Texas 275 3,304 34% -19% 46%Wyoming 2,337 22% 0% 111%Total ($m) 275 10,198 100% -34% 81%
10,473 73%
Why Colorado? …
It’s about North American Trade …
Mexico … Exports …
Truck …$788m up 32% since 2004
Mexico … Imports …
Truck …$694m up 23% since 2004
Why Colorado? …
It’s about North American Trade …
Canada … Exports …
Truck …$1.6b up 18% since 2004
Canada … Imports …
Truck …$1.1b up 35% since 2004
Why Colorado? …
Almost 73% of Truck Trade with Mexico goes through PTP Ports of Laredo, Eagle, Pass and Del Rio.
The market share of Colorado’s trade with Canada has increased 7.5% since 2004 through PTP Ports of Sweetgrass, Wild Horse, Raymond and Portal.
It’s about the rural heartland …
Most communities have little voice in Washington, D.C.
Most communities are a long way from their state capitals.
Most communities under 20,000 population
How can we be heard about …
The importance of connecting rural areas to markets
The value of freight corridors
The importance of a national transportation vision
How can we be heard about …
The expansion of these corridors
The value of Border Infrastructure to Commerce and Security
The importance of NHS High Priority Corridors connecting to new markets north and south.
How can we be heard about …
Opposition to legislation that limits the opportunities for expansion of rural highways
The opportunity for North American energy security
The need for a pilot project addressing truck permitting, weights and combinations
How can we be heard about …
All these items through a multi-state caucus!
How can we be heard about …
Joe KielyVice President of OperationsP.O. Box 9Limon, CO 80828P: 303-586-1787C: [email protected]