JOBS IN MAINE:CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK

Labor Market Information and Online Resources Maine Career Development Association

Annual Conference June 6, 2014

Ruth PeaseEconomic Research Analyst

Center for Workforce Research & Information

Maine Dept. of Laborwww.maine.gov/labor/cwri/ruth.e.pease@maine.gov

207-621-5189

Labor Market Information and Resources

•Recent trends and current conditions

•Population and labor force

•Outlook 2010 to 2020 (preview 2012 to 2022)

Types of workforce data:

Occupations what

workers do

(SOC)

Industries what firms

do

(NAICS)

Not In LABOR FORCE

377,00035%

EMPLOYED662,00092.7%

UNEMPLOYEDNot Employed and Looking for

Work47,0006.6%

Maine Labor Force Statistics, 2013

LABOR FORCE = Employed + Unemployed. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE = 65% NOT in LABOR FORCE = Not working nor available nor seeking work UNEMPLOYED = not working but available and looking for work UNEMPLOYMENT RATE = percent of LABOR FORCE that is unemployed = 6.6%

Civilian noninstitutional popula-tion16 years +

Recent trendsand current conditions

Since stabilizing in 2010, Maine has regained about one-half of the number of jobs lost in the downturn. The unemployment rate continues to trend down.

Jan

-08

Fe

b-0

8A

pr-

08

Jun

-08

Au

g-0

8O

ct-0

8D

ec-

08

Jan

-09

Ma

r-0

9M

ay-

09

Jul-

09

Se

p-0

9N

ov-

09

De

c-0

9F

eb

-10

Ap

r-1

0Ju

n-1

0A

ug

-10

Oct

-10

No

v-1

0Ja

n-1

1M

ar-

11

Ma

y-1

1Ju

l-1

1S

ep

-11

No

v-1

1D

ec-

11

Fe

b-1

2A

pr-

12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2O

ct-1

2N

ov-

12

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3M

ay-

13

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3O

ct-1

3D

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13

Fe

b-1

4

585,000

595,000

605,000

615,000

625,000

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

No

nfa

rm P

ay

roll

Jo

bs

(s

ea

so

na

lly a

dju

ste

d)

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

(se

as

on

ally

ad

jus

ted

)

Non-Farm Pay-roll Jobs

Unemployment Rate

Sectors that shed the most jobs involve making, moving or selling goods, as well as government; sectors adding jobs are

primarily human-capital intensive…(Net change in jobs from 2008 to 2013)

Manufa

ctu

ring

Reta

il T

rade

Constr

uction

Govern

ment

Info

rmation

Whole

sale

Tra

de

Tra

nsport

ation &

Utilii

tes

Fin

ancia

l A

ctivitie

s

Natu

ral R

esourc

es

Oth

er

Serv

ices

Educational S

erv

ices

Leis

ure

& H

ospitalit

y

Health C

are

& S

ocia

l A

ssis

tance

Pro

fessio

nal &

Busin

ess S

vcs

-8,300

-4,300 -4,000 -3,900-2,900

-1,300 -1,200 -800-100

7001,900 2,500 2,800 3,400

...This has caused major displacement in middle-skill blue-collar and administrative support occupations, which have been the primary path to a middle-class lifestyle for those

without post-secondary education.(Change in jobs 2008 to 2012)

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

Jobs that do not require post-secondary education suffered highest losses. Net growth occurred in occupations that require education beyond high school. Many displaced

workers do not qualify for openings in growing fields of work.

Less than high school

HS diploma or equivalent

Some college or non-degree

award

Associate's degree or

higher

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

Net change in jobs by usual educational requirement for

entry. 2008 to 2012

Another indication of shifting job requirements, work attributes valued in growing middle-income occupations are very

different from those in declining occupations.

Examples of knowledge, skill and ability requirements:

Growing Occupations

Critical thinking, problem solving, decision making, mathematics, reading comprehension, deductive reasoning, processing information, analyzing data

Declining Occupations

Machinery operation, equipment inspection, tool selection, physical strength, following instructions, manual dexterity, clerical functions

In summary -

The recession of 2008 accelerated a structural shift in jobs away from middle-skill occupations that typically involved routine tasks that are procedural and repetitive.

Rising performance requirements of jobs present a challenge…

…to displaced workers whose skills and experience may no longer be in demand,

…and to job seekers lacking relevant education, training or experience.

Looking ahead - demographic

considerations

We can no longer count on a natural increase in population so we will need to increase levels of net in-migration to

maintain a stable population and workforce.19

5019

5319

5619

5919

6219

6519

6819

7119

7419

7719

8019

8319

8619

8919

9219

9519

9820

0120

0420

0720

10

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000Natural Change (right scale)Births (left scale)Deaths (left scale)

Birt

hs a

nd D

eath

s

Nat

ural

Cha

nge

As we move through the lifecycle, our attachment to the labor force is highest between age 25 and 54 before declining at an

accelerating rate with age.

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-69 70-74 75+0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012

2022 projected

La

bo

r F

orc

e P

art

icip

atio

n R

ate

s

Maine has a larger share of Baby Boomers and a smaller share of young people to enter the workforce than the U.S. as

a whole.

0 5 10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

U.S. Maine

Age

Per

cent

of

Tot

al P

opul

atio

n in

201

2

During this decade a very large share of the population is aging beyond their peak years of labor force attachment.(Population by year of age if there were no migration in or out of Maine)

15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 758,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

2010 2017 2022

Age

The population in their peak years of labor force participation will decline between 2012 and 2022.

16-1920-24

25-3435-44

45-5455-64

65-6970-74

75+0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

Projected Population Change (right scale)Labor Force Participation Rate 2012 (left scale)Labor Force Participation Rate 2022 (left scale)

La

bo

r F

orc

e P

art

icip

atio

n R

ate

s

Pro

ject

ed

Po

pu

latio

n C

ha

ng

e 2

01

2-

20

22

Job Outlook

JOBS

Considerations affecting outlook

In the short term, a strengthening economy that puts unemployed back to work should produce job gains in the next few years.

In the longer term, job growth will be driven by demographic trends in the population and migration to and from the state. Demographic trends affect:

• Labor supply• Demand for goods and

services

The share of jobs in goods-producing industries (natural resources, construction and manufacturing) has fallen from

nearly half of jobs in 1950 to 14 percent of jobs in 2012. That trend is expected to continue.

44%56%

1950

Goods-ProducingService-Providing

18%

82%

2002

14%

86%

2012

13%

87%

2022, projected

Maine’s biggest industries

Distribution by jobs in 2013

Industry Outlook – what firms do:

Health Care & Social Assis-

tance17%

Government17%

Retail Trade14%Leisure & Hospitality

10%

Professional & Business Svcs

10%

Manufacturing8%

All Other Industries 24%

Through 2022, many sectors will see job growth, but only four are expected to have significantly more jobs than the pre-

recession peak.

Ma

nu

fact

uri

ng

Co

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vern

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ort

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iviti

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re &

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spita

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Ed

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s

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re &

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Pro

f &

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sin

ess

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s

-8,6

00

-5,3

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00

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-1,7

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00

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3,8

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-4,4

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52

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-77

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-2,9

39

11

4

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9

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4

-19

19

2 2,4

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49

8

13

,14

9

3,4

91

Job Change 2008 to 2012Outlook 2012 to 2022

Service22%

Professional and Related

22%

Office and Administrative Support

16%

Sales and Related10%

Management, Business and Financial

9%

Production6%

Transportation and Material Moving6%

Construction and Extraction5%

Installation, Maint, and Repair, 4% Farm/Fish/Forestry

0%

Professional & Related: Computer & MathematicalArchitecture & Engineering Life, Physical & Soc. Sci. Community & Social Svcs Legal Education & Library Arts, Design & SportsHealthcare Practitioners & Technicians

Service Occupations: Healthcare SupportProtective ServicesFood Prep & ServiceBuilding & Maint.Personal Care & Svcs.

Jobs by occupational categories2013

Occupational Outlook – what workers do:

Growth is concentrated in occupational groups that represent opposite ends of the skills, education and wage spectrum.

The concentration of job growth in high- and low-wage occupations will result in a smaller share of jobs in the middle

of the wage spectrum.

<$11 $11 to $14.99 $15 to $19.99 $20 to $24.99 $25+

15%

29%

22%

12%

21%24%

27%

12%

5%

31%

Share of 2010 Jobs

Share of Expected Job Growth to 2020

Jobs by Their 2011 Average Hourly Wage

Sha

re o

f T

otal

Job

s by

201

1 A

vera

ge

Wag

e

The distribution of net growth by education level shows a shift toward occupations requiring education beyond high school.

However, most jobs will still be in occupations with low education requirements.

HS diploma or less Postsecondary, less than BA

BA+

70%

13%17%

57%

20% 23%

36%

27%

36%

Share of 2010 Jobs

Share of Expected Job Growth ALL JOBS

Share of Expected Job Growth HIGH-WAGE IN-DEMAND Jobs

Usual Education Requirement of Occupations

Sh

are

of

To

tal

2010

JO

BS

NE

T N

EW

J

OB

S

HW

-ID

J

OB

S

“High Growth” versus “In-Demand”Job openings stem from two sources: replacement of

incumbent workers and job creation. From 2010 to 2020, nearly 4 out of five openings will be due to replacement needs.

Growth4,360

Replacement15,150

Replacement openings create job opportunities even in occupations expected to experience net job losses. “In-demand”

status is based on average annual openings, not net growth.

Production

Office and Administrative Support

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Transportation and Material Moving

Management, Business and Financial

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry

Sales and Related

Construction and Extraction

Service

Professional and Related

40 + 740

420

100 + 590

150 + 910

380

380

230 + 810

1,270

1,370

2,120

1,310

31 + 140

2,070

3,510

2,940

Occupations ranked by growth rate, high to low.

GrowthReplacement

CWRI homepage http://maine.gov/labor/cwri/

CWRI Resources for Job Seekershttp://maine.gov/labor/cwri/jobseekers.htm• Average Wage Lookup

• Quick reference providing average wage and link to O*Net

• Occupations by Wages• Look for regional concentrations and wage differentials

• High Wage, In-Demand Jobs• Links to information on related occupations (O*NET Online)

• Growing/Declining Occupations• Research occupations by openings, net growth or net loss

• Employer Locator• Research Maine employers by occupation, industry, or region

http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html• Occupation by Industry tab

• Find out which industries employ a selected occupation.