JOBS IN MAINE · JOBS IN MAINE: CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK ... Maine Labor Force Statistics, 2013 ... In...

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JOBS IN MAINE: CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK Labor Market Information and Online Resources Maine Career Development Association Annual Conference June 6, 2014 Ruth Pease Economic Research Analyst Center for Workforce Research & Information Maine Dept. of Labor www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/ [email protected] 207-621-5189

Transcript of JOBS IN MAINE · JOBS IN MAINE: CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK ... Maine Labor Force Statistics, 2013 ... In...

JOBS IN MAINE: CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK

Labor Market Information and Online Resources

Maine Career Development Association

Annual Conference June 6, 2014

Ruth Pease

Economic Research Analyst

Center for Workforce

Research & Information

Maine Dept. of Labor

www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/

[email protected]

207-621-5189

Labor Market Information and

Resources

•Recent trends and current conditions

•Population and labor force

•Outlook 2010 to 2020

(preview 2012 to 2022)

Types of workforce data:

Occupations what

workers do

(SOC)

Industries what firms

do

(NAICS)

Not In LABOR FORCE

377,000 35%

EMPLOYED 662,000 92.7%

UNEMPLOYED Not Employed

and Looking for Work

47,000 6.6%

LABOR FORCE 709,000

65%

Maine Labor Force Statistics, 2013

LABOR FORCE = Employed + Unemployed.

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE = 65%

NOT in LABOR FORCE = Not working nor available nor seeking work

UNEMPLOYED = not working but available and looking for work

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE = percent of LABOR FORCE that is unemployed = 6.6%

Civilian noninstitutional

population

Recent trends and current conditions

Since stabilizing in 2010, Maine has regained about one-half

of the number of jobs lost in the downturn. The

unemployment rate continues to trend down.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

585,000

595,000

605,000

615,000

625,000

Ja

n-0

8

Apr-

08

Ju

l-0

8

Oct-

08

Ja

n-0

9

Apr-

09

Ju

l-0

9

Oct-

09

Ja

n-1

0

Apr-

10

Ju

l-1

0

Oct-

10

Ja

n-1

1

Apr-

11

Ju

l-1

1

Oct-

11

Ja

n-1

2

Apr-

12

Ju

l-1

2

Oct-

12

Ja

n-1

3

Apr-

13

Ju

l-1

3

Oct-

13

Ja

n-1

4

Apr-

14

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

(s

ea

so

na

lly a

dju

ste

d)

No

nfa

rm P

ayro

ll J

ob

s

(sea

so

na

lly a

dju

ste

d)

Non-Farm

Payroll Jobs

Unemployment Rate

Sectors that shed the most jobs involve making, moving or

selling goods, as well as government; sectors adding jobs are

primarily human-capital intensive… (Net change in jobs from 2008 to 2013)

-8,300

-4,300 -4,000 -3,900 -2,900

-1,300 -1,200 -800 -100

700 1,900 2,500 2,800 3,400

Ma

nu

factu

ring

Reta

il T

rade

Constr

uction

Go

ve

rnm

en

t

Info

rma

tio

n

Wh

ole

sale

Tra

de

Tra

nspo

rtation

&U

tilii

tes

Fin

an

cia

l A

ctivitie

s

Na

tura

l R

esou

rce

s

Oth

er

Serv

ices

Ed

ucation

al S

erv

ices

Leis

ure

& H

osp

ita

lity

He

alth C

are

& S

ocia

lA

ssis

tance

Pro

fessio

na

l &

Bu

sin

ess S

vcs

...This has caused major displacement in middle-skill blue-

collar and administrative support occupations, which have

been the primary path to a middle-class lifestyle for those

without post-secondary education. (Change in jobs 2008 to 2012)

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

Jobs that do not require post-secondary education suffered

highest losses. Net growth occurred in occupations that

require education beyond high school. Many displaced

workers do not qualify for openings in growing fields of work.

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

Less than highschool

HS diploma orequivalent

Some college ornon-degree

award

Associate'sdegree or higher

Net change in jobs by usual

educational requirement for

entry. 2008 to 2012

Another indication of shifting job requirements, work attributes

valued in growing middle-income occupations are very

different from those in declining occupations.

Examples of knowledge, skill and ability requirements:

Growing Occupations

Critical thinking, problem

solving, decision

making, mathematics,

reading comprehension,

deductive reasoning,

processing information,

analyzing data

Declining Occupations

Machinery operation,

equipment inspection,

tool selection, physical

strength, following

instructions, manual

dexterity, clerical

functions

In summary -

The recession of 2008 accelerated a structural shift in

jobs away from middle-skill occupations that typically

involved routine tasks that are procedural and repetitive.

Rising performance requirements of jobs present a

challenge…

…to displaced workers whose skills and

experience may no longer be in demand,

…and to job seekers lacking relevant

education, training or experience.

Looking ahead - demographic

considerations

We can no longer count on a natural increase in population

so we will need to increase levels of net in-migration to

maintain a stable population and workforce.

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

Nat

ura

l Ch

ange

Bir

ths

and

Dea

ths

Natural Change (right scale)

Births (left scale)

Deaths (left scale)

As we move through the lifecycle, our attachment to the labor

force is highest between age 25 and 54 before declining at an

accelerating rate with age.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-69 70-74 75+

La

bo

r F

orc

e P

art

icip

atio

n R

ate

s

2012

2022 projected

Maine has a larger share of Baby Boomers and a smaller

share of young people to enter the workforce than the U.S. as

a whole.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Perc

ent

of Tota

l P

opula

tion in 2

012

Age

U.S. Maine

During this decade a very large share of the population is

aging beyond their peak years of labor force attachment. (Population by year of age if there were no migration in or out of Maine)

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75Age

2010 2017 2022

The population in their peak years of labor force participation

will decline between 2012 and 2022.

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

jecte

d P

op

ula

tio

n C

ha

ng

e

20

12-2

02

2

La

bo

r F

orc

e P

art

icip

atio

n R

ate

s

Projected Population Change (right scale)

Labor Force Participation Rate 2012 (left scale)

Labor Force Participation Rate 2022 (left scale)

Job Outlook

JOBS

Population

Labor Force

Goods and

Services

Considerations affecting outlook

In the short term, a

strengthening economy

that puts unemployed

back to work should

produce job gains in the

next few years.

In the longer term, job

growth will be driven by

demographic trends in

the population and

migration to and from

the state. Demographic

trends affect:

• Labor supply

• Demand for goods and

services

The share of jobs in goods-producing industries (natural

resources, construction and manufacturing) has fallen from

nearly half of jobs in 1950 to 14 percent of jobs in 2012. That

trend is expected to continue.

44% 56%

1950

Goods-Producing

Service-Providing

18%

82%

2002

14%

86%

2012

13%

87%

2022, projected

Maine’s biggest industries

Distribution by jobs in 2013

Industry Outlook – what firms do:

Health Care & Social

Assistance 17%

Government 17%

Retail Trade 14% Leisure &

Hospitality 10%

Professional & Business Svcs

10%

Manufacturing 8%

All Other Industries

24%

Through 2022, many sectors will see job growth, but only four

are expected to have significantly more jobs than the pre-

recession peak.

-8,6

00

-5,3

00

-4,8

00

-3,4

00

-2,7

00

-2,2

00

-1,7

00

-1,7

00

-200

200

1,3

00

1,4

00

3,8

00

4,2

00

-4,4

28

52

4

1,2

10

-772

-2,9

39

11

4

33

9

244

-19

192

2,4

01

498

13

,14

9

3,4

91

Man

ufa

ctu

ring

Co

nstr

uctio

n

Reta

il T

rade

Info

rmation

Govern

me

nt

Tra

nsport

. &

Utilii

tes

Wh

ole

sa

le T

rad

e

Fin

an

cia

l A

ctivitie

s

Natu

ral R

esourc

es

Oth

er

Se

rvic

es

Leis

ure

& H

ospita

lity

Educational S

erv

ice

s

Hea

lth C

are

& S

oc A

ssis

t.

Pro

f &

Busin

ess S

vcs

Job Change 2008 to 2012

Outlook 2012 to 2022

Service 22%

Professional and Related

22%

Office and Administrative

Support 16%

Sales and Related 10%

Management, Business and

Financial 10%

Production 6%

Transportation and Material Moving

6%

Construction and Extraction

5% Installation, Maint, and

Repair, 4%

Farm/Fish/ Forestry

0%

Other 20%

Professional & Related:

Computer & Mathematical

Architecture & Engineering

Life, Physical & Soc. Sci.

Community & Social Svcs

Legal

Education & Library

Arts, Design & Sports

Healthcare Practitioners & Technicians

Service Occupations:

Healthcare Support

Protective Services

Food Prep & Service

Building & Maint.

Personal Care & Svcs.

Jobs by

occupational

categories 2013

Occupational Outlook – what workers do:

Growth is concentrated in occupational groups that represent

opposite ends of the skills, education and wage spectrum.

The concentration of job growth in high- and low-wage

occupations will result in a smaller share of jobs in the middle

of the wage spectrum.

15%

29%

22%

12%

21%

24%

27%

12%

5%

31%

<$11 $11 to $14.99 $15 to $19.99 $20 to $24.99 $25+

Share

of Tota

l Jobs b

y 2

011 A

vera

ge

Wage

Jobs by Their 2011 Average Hourly Wage

Share of 2010 Jobs

Share of Expected Job Growth to 2020

The distribution of net growth by education level shows a shift

toward occupations requiring education beyond high school.

However, most jobs will still be in occupations with low

education requirements.

70%

13% 17%

57%

20% 23%

36%

27%

36%

HS diploma or less Postsecondary, less thanBA

BA+

Sh

are

of

To

tal

Usual Education Requirement of Occupations

Share of 2010 Jobs

Share of Expected Job Growth ALLJOBSShare of Expected Job Growth HIGH-WAGE IN-DEMAND Jobs

20

10

JO

BS

NE

T N

EW

JO

BS

HW

-ID

JO

BS

“High Growth” versus “In-Demand”

Job openings stem from two sources: replacement of incumbent

workers and job creation. From 2010 to 2020, nearly 4 out of five

openings will be due to replacement needs.

Growth 4,360

Replacement 15,150

Replacement openings create job opportunities even in occupations

expected to experience net job losses. “In-demand” status is based

on average annual openings, not net growth.

40 + 740

420

100 + 590

150 + 910

380

380

230 + 810

1,270

1,370

2,120

1,310

31 + 140

2,070

3,510

2,940

Production

Office and AdministrativeSupport

Installation, Maintenance,and Repair

Transportation andMaterial Moving

Management, Businessand Financial

Farming, Fishing, andForestry

Sales and Related

Construction andExtraction

Service

Professional and Related

Occupations ranked by growth rate, high to low.

Growth

Replacement

CWRI homepage

http://maine.gov/labor/cwri/

CWRI Resources for Job Seekers http://maine.gov/labor/cwri/jobseekers.htm

• Average Wage Lookup • Quick reference providing average wage and link to O*Net

• Occupations by Wages • Look for regional concentrations and wage differentials

• High Wage, In-Demand Jobs

• Links to information on related occupations (O*NET Online)

• Growing/Declining Occupations • Research occupations by openings, net growth or net loss

• Employer Locator • Research Maine employers by occupation, industry, or region

http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html

• Occupation by Industry tab • Find out which industries employ a selected occupation.