JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s...

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JLL 2016

Transcript of JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s...

Page 1: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

JLL 2016

Page 2: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

Over the past year and a half, Denver’s industrial vacancy has averaged 3.1%—placing ours among the tightest markets in the nation. A prolonged lack of vacant space has allowed landlords to drive up year-over-year rental rates by 11.6% since Q2 2015.

Looking forward, newly delivered and under construction product may offer some slackening in rent increases. Year to date, 1.8 M s.f. has been added to inventory, and another 3.1 M s.f. remains in the pipeline. This new supply should help curb rental rate growth during the quarters ahead.

DENVER BREAKS INTO THE NATION'S TOP QUINTILE FOR INDUSTRIAL RENT GROWTH

DID YOU KNOW?

Source: JLL Research

JLL 2016

Seattle 8.6%

Chicago 7.6%

Denver11.6%

Phoenix8.8%

Philadelphia 4.5%

Miami-0.9%

Charlotte-3.2%

United States — 1.9%Houston

2.6%

Kansas City3.9%

Detroit5.6%

Dallas6.3%

Atlanta6.4%

Los Angeles 10.8%

Sacramento9.8%

Salt Lake2.9%

Page 3: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

Historically low interest rates, volatility in other investment vehicles, insatiable demand meeting a shortage of available properties and abundant levels of capital ready for investment: these are the primary factors behind a year-over-year decrease in cap rates across all asset types.

CAP RATES STILL DECLINING AS DENVER REMAINS AN INVESTMENT TARGET

DID YOU KNOW?

Source: JLL Research, Real Capital Analytics, Yahoo Finance

JLL 2016

8.0%

9.0%

6.0%

7.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2.0%

3.0%

1.0%

2008 2010 20112009 2012 20162013 2014 2015

OFFICE INDUSTRIAL RETAIL MULTIFAMILY 10-YR TREASURY

Page 4: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster the national rate. Only Houston outpaced Denver's 2.1% annual increase since the 2010 census.

DENVER IS NOW THE NATION’S 19TH MOST POPULOUS METROPOLITAN AREA

DID YOU KNOW?

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

JLL 2016

12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%

DETROIT

ST. LOUIS

CHICAGO

PHILADELPHIA

NEW YORK

LOS ANGELES

BOSTON

MINNEAPOLIS

RIVERSIDE, CA

SAN DIEGO

TAMPA

SAN FRANCISCO

ATLANTA

MIAMI

WASHINGTON, DC

SEATTLE

PHOENIX

DALLAS

DENVER

HOUSTON

U.S. AVERAGE - 4.1%

Page 5: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

Looking at average annual growth rates for both office-using and industrial-using industries, Denver payroll expansion surpasses national averages.

DENVER OFFICE AND INDUSTRIAL-USING PAYROLL GROWTH HAS CONSISTENTLY OUTPACED U.S. GAINS

OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS—ESPECIALLY SINCE EMERGING FROM THE LAST RECESSION.

DID YOU KNOW?

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

JLL 2016

OFFICE-USING

DENVER

3.4%

3.5%

3.5%

PAST YEAR

3 YEARS

5 YEARS

AVG ANNUAL Δ OVER THE . . . U.S

2.6%

2.5%

2.6%

INDUSTRIAL-USING

DENVER

2.1%

2.7%

2.4%

U.S

1.8%

1.9%

1.8%

6.0%

8.0%

2.0%

4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-8.0%

1992 2000 20041996 2008 20162012

DEN OFFICE-USING U.S. OFFICE-USING DEN INDUSTRIAL-USING U.S. INDUSTRIAL-USING

Page 6: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

10.6 % (2010 - 2015)

8.9% (2016 - 2021)*

BEST CITIES TO START A CAREER

BEST BIG CITIES FOR JOBS

NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGES

EDUCATION

POPULATION GROWTH *Projected

2016 NET MIGRATION 33,521

Source: JLL Research, WalletHub, Forbes, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau

JLL 2016

POPULATION GROWTH & MIGRATIONTO DENVER METRO

FOR METROS WITH A POPULATION OF 1 M+

#2

#7

#11

#17

Page 7: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics

JLL 2016

COST OF LIVING - 2015DENVER VS. OTHER METROS

108

98 101108

111

123

158

U.S. AVERAGE - 100

DENV

ER

CHIC

AGO

DALL

AS

AUST

IN

SEAT

TLE

SAN

FRAN

CISC

O

MIN

NEAP

OLIS

Page 8: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION SINCEDEPTH OF RECESSION

DENVER

COLORADO

U.S.

21.4% 18.5%

11.3%

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

JLL 2016

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

Page 9: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

Source: JLL Research, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics

JLL 2016

INDUSTRY DIVERSITY - 2015

DENVER VS. OTHER METROSDENVER

CHICAGO

DALLASAUSTIN

SAN FRANCISCO MINNEAPOLIS

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0

SEATTLE

MORE DIVERSE ECONOMY

0.8

ATLANTA

TAMPA

KANSASCITY

LESS DIVERSE ECONOMY

LAS VEGAS

Page 10: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

2010 – 2015

FASTEST GROWING CITIES

4

170,000 New Residents

#jlldenverhorizon

Source: Forbes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7 AMERICA’S

METROS BY NET MIGRATION

#

#

2016

Page 11: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

TOP

JOB GROWTH & EDUCATION

STATEMOST EDUCATED2nd

4-year degree

#jlldenverhorizon

Source: Forbes

%

in all U.S. Metros

Source: U.S. News & World Report

Page 12: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

BESTMARKETSfor finding a

6In ULI + PwC’s

2016 Report“U.S. MARKETS

TO WATCH”

Source: WalletHub

Job

#

8%TOP

#jlldenverhorizon

Page 13: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

3rdMost

dog-friendly city

300 SUNSHINEDAYS OF

Best U.S. Cityfor FOODIESSI

XTH

#jlldenverhorizon

4thMost

BIKEABLE in

theU.S.

Source: SmartAsset

Source: Denver.org

Source: NerdWallet

Source: Walkscore

CITY

Page 14: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

#jlldenverhorizon

Cities

Top States

Top

Source: NerdWallet

Source: CNBC

Source: Entrepreneur

2

3

10

ENTREPRENEURIAL STATE

FOR BUSINESS 2016

FOR TECH STARTUPS

2015

Most

#

nd

Source: WalletHub

Career

BEST CITIES TO START A#2

Page 15: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

STATE2015

BEST BEER

for

Cities

STATE Arts and Participation

Most Active

Source: United Health Foundation

Source: Beer Institute, Redfin

Source: National Endowment for the Arts

7

1

1

#jlldenverhorizon

#

#

#

Page 16: JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s 20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster

STARTUP

to LIVE in the U.S.BEST PLACES

#jlldenverhorizon

for

for

#1 Denver#5 Colorado Springs

ADULTSYOUNG

ACTIVITY

8BEST CITIES

Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation

Source: U.S. News & World Report

Source: Forbes

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#