JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s...
Transcript of JLL 2016 Horizon Quick Facts...In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s...
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JLL 2016
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Over the past year and a half, Denver’s industrial vacancy has averaged 3.1%—placing ours among the tightest markets in the nation. A prolonged lack of vacant space has allowed landlords to drive up year-over-year rental rates by 11.6% since Q2 2015.
Looking forward, newly delivered and under construction product may offer some slackening in rent increases. Year to date, 1.8 M s.f. has been added to inventory, and another 3.1 M s.f. remains in the pipeline. This new supply should help curb rental rate growth during the quarters ahead.
DENVER BREAKS INTO THE NATION'S TOP QUINTILE FOR INDUSTRIAL RENT GROWTH
DID YOU KNOW?
Source: JLL Research
JLL 2016
Seattle 8.6%
Chicago 7.6%
Denver11.6%
Phoenix8.8%
Philadelphia 4.5%
Miami-0.9%
Charlotte-3.2%
United States — 1.9%Houston
2.6%
Kansas City3.9%
Detroit5.6%
Dallas6.3%
Atlanta6.4%
Los Angeles 10.8%
Sacramento9.8%
Salt Lake2.9%
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Historically low interest rates, volatility in other investment vehicles, insatiable demand meeting a shortage of available properties and abundant levels of capital ready for investment: these are the primary factors behind a year-over-year decrease in cap rates across all asset types.
CAP RATES STILL DECLINING AS DENVER REMAINS AN INVESTMENT TARGET
DID YOU KNOW?
Source: JLL Research, Real Capital Analytics, Yahoo Finance
JLL 2016
8.0%
9.0%
6.0%
7.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2.0%
3.0%
1.0%
2008 2010 20112009 2012 20162013 2014 2015
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL RETAIL MULTIFAMILY 10-YR TREASURY
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In 2015, Denver moved up two slots and now ranks among the nation’s20 most populous cities—attributable to a five-year pace of growth 2.5x faster the national rate. Only Houston outpaced Denver's 2.1% annual increase since the 2010 census.
DENVER IS NOW THE NATION’S 19TH MOST POPULOUS METROPOLITAN AREA
DID YOU KNOW?
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
JLL 2016
12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
DETROIT
ST. LOUIS
CHICAGO
PHILADELPHIA
NEW YORK
LOS ANGELES
BOSTON
MINNEAPOLIS
RIVERSIDE, CA
SAN DIEGO
TAMPA
SAN FRANCISCO
ATLANTA
MIAMI
WASHINGTON, DC
SEATTLE
PHOENIX
DALLAS
DENVER
HOUSTON
U.S. AVERAGE - 4.1%
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Looking at average annual growth rates for both office-using and industrial-using industries, Denver payroll expansion surpasses national averages.
DENVER OFFICE AND INDUSTRIAL-USING PAYROLL GROWTH HAS CONSISTENTLY OUTPACED U.S. GAINS
OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS—ESPECIALLY SINCE EMERGING FROM THE LAST RECESSION.
DID YOU KNOW?
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
JLL 2016
OFFICE-USING
DENVER
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
PAST YEAR
3 YEARS
5 YEARS
AVG ANNUAL Δ OVER THE . . . U.S
2.6%
2.5%
2.6%
INDUSTRIAL-USING
DENVER
2.1%
2.7%
2.4%
U.S
1.8%
1.9%
1.8%
6.0%
8.0%
2.0%
4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-8.0%
1992 2000 20041996 2008 20162012
DEN OFFICE-USING U.S. OFFICE-USING DEN INDUSTRIAL-USING U.S. INDUSTRIAL-USING
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10.6 % (2010 - 2015)
8.9% (2016 - 2021)*
BEST CITIES TO START A CAREER
BEST BIG CITIES FOR JOBS
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGES
EDUCATION
POPULATION GROWTH *Projected
2016 NET MIGRATION 33,521
Source: JLL Research, WalletHub, Forbes, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau
JLL 2016
POPULATION GROWTH & MIGRATIONTO DENVER METRO
FOR METROS WITH A POPULATION OF 1 M+
#2
#7
#11
#17
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Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics
JLL 2016
COST OF LIVING - 2015DENVER VS. OTHER METROS
108
98 101108
111
123
158
U.S. AVERAGE - 100
DENV
ER
CHIC
AGO
DALL
AS
AUST
IN
SEAT
TLE
SAN
FRAN
CISC
O
MIN
NEAP
OLIS
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SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION SINCEDEPTH OF RECESSION
DENVER
COLORADO
U.S.
21.4% 18.5%
11.3%
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
JLL 2016
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
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Source: JLL Research, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics
JLL 2016
INDUSTRY DIVERSITY - 2015
DENVER VS. OTHER METROSDENVER
CHICAGO
DALLASAUSTIN
SAN FRANCISCO MINNEAPOLIS
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0
SEATTLE
MORE DIVERSE ECONOMY
0.8
ATLANTA
TAMPA
KANSASCITY
LESS DIVERSE ECONOMY
LAS VEGAS
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2010 – 2015
FASTEST GROWING CITIES
4
170,000 New Residents
#jlldenverhorizon
Source: Forbes
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
7 AMERICA’S
METROS BY NET MIGRATION
#
#
2016
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TOP
JOB GROWTH & EDUCATION
STATEMOST EDUCATED2nd
4-year degree
#jlldenverhorizon
Source: Forbes
%
in all U.S. Metros
Source: U.S. News & World Report
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BESTMARKETSfor finding a
6In ULI + PwC’s
2016 Report“U.S. MARKETS
TO WATCH”
Source: WalletHub
Job
#
8%TOP
#jlldenverhorizon
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3rdMost
dog-friendly city
300 SUNSHINEDAYS OF
Best U.S. Cityfor FOODIESSI
XTH
#jlldenverhorizon
4thMost
BIKEABLE in
theU.S.
Source: SmartAsset
Source: Denver.org
Source: NerdWallet
Source: Walkscore
CITY
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#jlldenverhorizon
Cities
Top States
Top
Source: NerdWallet
Source: CNBC
Source: Entrepreneur
2
3
10
ENTREPRENEURIAL STATE
FOR BUSINESS 2016
FOR TECH STARTUPS
2015
Most
#
nd
Source: WalletHub
Career
BEST CITIES TO START A#2
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STATE2015
BEST BEER
for
Cities
STATE Arts and Participation
Most Active
Source: United Health Foundation
Source: Beer Institute, Redfin
Source: National Endowment for the Arts
7
1
1
#jlldenverhorizon
#
#
#
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STARTUP
to LIVE in the U.S.BEST PLACES
#jlldenverhorizon
for
for
#1 Denver#5 Colorado Springs
ADULTSYOUNG
ACTIVITY
8BEST CITIES
Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation
Source: U.S. News & World Report
Source: Forbes
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