Plugged In: Green Car Hype and Reality

“Covering the Green Economy”

Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism

June 28, 2010

1900: A Turning Point• At the 1900 New York Auto Show, an equal number of gasoline, electric

and steam cars were exhibited. Patrons were polled and chose electric as their first choice, followed closely by steam. Gasoline ran a distant third, getting only 5 percent of the vote. There were 1,681 steam, 1,575 electric, and only 936 gasoline cars made that year.

Early Futurism: Tech Visions• In just one issue, January 1960, Popular Science brought us such

wonderful inventions as the wingless airliner that could travel at 62 miles a minute, the hanging TV (saves floor space), the pushbutton teacher, and the car that “runs on oil pumped to the wheels, without clutch, gearbox or brakes…”

General Motors Futurama

• New York World's Fair, 1939. A very close view of the intersection: "Ladies and gentlemen, in a moment we will arrive actually on this very street intersection - to become a part of the World of Tomorrow..."

A False Start…in the 1960s

• The Henney Kilowatt (an electric Renault Dauphine) that failed to sell. The car at left is a Ford Comuta. It didn’t sell, either, for obvious reasons. The cars of that period had short range with lead-acid batteries, were ungainly and slow—and expensive. With cheap gas and little environmental concern, there was little incentive to buy them.

Who Killed the Electric Car?

• The EV-1 sold only 600 in California and Arizona between 1996 and 1999 before GM took back the cars and crushed them. But it wasn’t a conspiracy—people simply weren’t yet ready for electric cars.

The Contenders: Honda and Toyota

• Honda’s EV-Plus was competent, but failed to find homes. The Toyota RAV-4 EV is beloved today—both Ed Begley, Jr. and Tom Hanks still drive them.

Storming the Beachhead: The Tesla Roadster

• Unveiled to the public in 2006, the ultra-fast, exceptionally sexy Roadster was an instant hit with the media, as was CEO Elon Musk and his captivating back story: Internet billionaire! Space X! Perhaps 1,100 Roadsters have been sold.

The Battery Car Goes Mainstream: Nissan’s Leaf, Chevrolet’s Volt

• Both the Leaf and Volt will be on the U.S. market in late 2010. They’re vastly different, but both trend setters.

Suddenly, a Crowded Field

• From top left, clockwise, Aptera 2E, Wheego Whip, Coda sedan. Fisker Karma, BYD E6, BMW Active E.

Plus Factors

• Global warming and peak oil.• Zero emission, no smog emissions.• Instant torque.• Fast recharge available.• Quiet operation.• Programmable from cell phone and computer.• Green cachet, early adopter status.

Con Factors

• Initially expensive.

• Anxiety over 100-mile range.

• Learning to plug in instead of fill up.

• Battery life.

• Highway and winter use reduces usability.

• Charging infrastructure still embryonic.

Covering an Emerging Industry

• Do we believe the hype?• Whose “roadmap” is accurate”• Are fundamentals in place—dealer

networks, parts suppliers, service?• What’s the proper role for government

support?• Can EV startups fight an entrenched

industry?

The Big Question

• EVs could fail in the marketplace, if the public doesn’t understand the urgency of “greening” transportation to the meet 21st century’s biggest challenges.

Fast Work: Electrification Coalition Roadmap

• The Electrification Roadmap calls for 75 percent of light-duty vehicle miles in the U.S. to be electric by 2040. Achieving this will require a minimum of 25 percent of new light-duty vehicles purchased in the US to be grid-enabled vehicles (GEV) by 2020.

Questions? Comments?

• Jim Motavalli

• Reporter for NPR’s “Car Talk,” New York Times, CBS Interactive, Mother Nature Network, Hearst’s Daily Green and AOL.

• 203-610-0549

• Jmotavalli@gmail.com