Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update

8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update

1/10

Current prices for homes on the mark

Trends in priciCurrent levels of supply and dema

Value metri

market updat

Jim Duncan's Market Repo

CHARLOTTESVIL

229

Sunday March 14, 20

Report for the week

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RealCentralVA.com/Nest Realty Gro

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Presented by Jim Dunc

434-242-71

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2/10

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

The median single family home price

in CHARLOTTESVILLE this week is

$349,900. The 575 homes have been on

the market for an average of 133 days.

THIS WEEK

Most Expensive Listing

Least Expensive Listing

Median List Price

Average List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 349,900

$ 617,660

$ 14,950,000

$ 44,900

575

133Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 171

22Absorbed This Week*

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 26 %

Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 9 %

Percent Flip (price increased) 3 %

City Overview CHARLOTTESVILLE

0.25 - 0.50 acre

Altos Research Value Statistics

Market Action Index

Median Number of Bedrooms

Median Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)

Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,195

3.7

3.0

24

24Cool. Buyer's Market

Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.

The Market Action Index has been

trending down lately, while inventoryand days-on-market are climbing. The

trends imply a weakening market.

To get a tightly targeted understanding

of homes in the market, we break eachlocale into quartiles. Each quartile is

25% of the homes listed.

QUARTILES

Characteristics per Quartile

Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend

Trend Key

No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend

Bed BathMed.Sqft.

Med.Age Inven. New

Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart

Avg.DoM

*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.

Most expensive 25% of homes2.5 - 5.0 acres3,848 4.0 4.0 20 143 11 3$ 929,0001 161

Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,535 4.0 3.0 8 144 17 8$ 399,9502 115

Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre1,970 3.0 3.0 19 144 21 5$ 314,9503 110

Least expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre1,344 3.0 2.0 54 144 17 6$ 221,7504 148

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend

graphs below.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE


3/10


PRICE

Again this week we see a downward

notch for prices. Prices continue to pull

back from the market's highs. The

Market Action Index is a good leading

indicator for the durability of this

trend.

QUARTILE PRICES

Price weakness is evident across the

board. All four quartiles have been in

price decline in recent weeks. Look to

the Market Action Index as a leading

indicator of the bottom of the market.

Often, we find insights by watching

pricing trends within the quartile

segments.



4/10


Despite recently falling prices, the price

per square foot has stayed reasonably

flat. This implies that there's a portion

of the market being priced at a

premium. You can investigate this

condition in the quartile details.

PRICE AND VALUE

INVENTORY

Inventory has been climbing lately.

Note that rising inventory alone does

not signal a weakening market. Look to

the Market Action Index and Days on

Market trends to gauge whether buyer

interest is keeping up with available

supply.



5/10


The CHARLOTTESVILLE market is

currently in the Buyer's Market zone

(below 30), though not strongly so. The

90-day Market Action Index stands this

week at 24 so buyers should expect find

reasonable levels of selection.

The market has been consistently cool

for several weeks. Demand level are low

relative to the available inventory. It's

a Buyer's market and prices continue to

fall. Look for a persistent shift inMarket Action before prices plateau or

begin to rise again.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a

statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a Seller's Market (a.k.a. "Hot Market")because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market willtypically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "ColdMarket") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months atthe current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can becharacterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the indexfalls into the Buyers Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downwardcorrection.

Not surprisingly given the overall

Market Action Index, all quartiles are in

the Buyer's Market zone with several

months of inventory given the current

rate of demand for homes in the

quartile. Watch the quartile for change

before the overall market shifts. Often

one end of the market (e.g. the low end)

will improve and signal a strengtheningmarket before the whole group changes

The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my pricerange?"

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES



6/10


DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

The properties have been on the

market for an average of 133 days. Half

of the listings have come newly on the

market in the past 112 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILE

It is not uncommon for the higher

priced homes in an area to take longer

to sell than those in the lower

quartiles.



7/10


22903Neighborhood DetailCHARLOTTESVILLE

Most Expensive Listing

Least Expensive Listing

Median List Price

Average List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 331,938

$ 532,328

$ 6,160,000

$ 99,900

172

127Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 178

7Absorbed This Week

The median single family home price

in CHARLOTTESVILLE 22903 this

week is $331,937.

THIS WEEK

Median Number of Bedrooms

Median Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)

Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,132

3.7

3.0

35Altos Research Value Statistics

0.25 - 0.50 acre

Market Action Index 27Cool. Buyer's Market

The Market Action Index has been

trending down lately, while inventory

and days-on-market are climbing. The

trends imply a weakening market.

PRICE

Again this week in this zip code we see

a downward notch for prices. Pricing

has been weak in recent weeks and

versus their absolute-high level. At thispoint, we will be looking for a persisten

upward shift in the Market Action

Index as a leading indicator for a

trough in prices.



8/10


PRICE PER QUARTILE

In the quartile market segments, we see

the market's price weakness almost

across the board. Prices in Quartile 4

have been mixed recently, while the res

of the market is trending downward.

Look for a strong, persistent up shift inthe Market Action Index as a leading

indicator of the trough in the market.

QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile

Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New

Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart

Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes1.0 - 2.5 acres3,881 4.0 4.0 12 43 4 1$ 895,0001 126

Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,432 4.0 3.0 10 43 4 3$ 399,9002 121

Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre1,835 3.0 3.0 35 43 6 2$ 299,9003 115

Least expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre1,262 3.0 2.0 58 43 8 1$ 210,0004 148

The market's downward trends are

shared across both price and value.

People are recently placing less value

on homes (you can see the recent

declines in price per square foot as

evidence.) Look for significant changes

in the Market Action Index as a

precursor to price and value changes,

possibly as inflection points for good

investment opportunities.

PRICE AND VALUE



9/10


INVENTORY

Inventory has been falling in recent

weeks with 172 properties available this

week. Note that declining inventory

alone does not signal a strengthening

market. Look to the Market Action

Index to gauge whether buyer interestis falling with the available supply.

The CHARLOTTESVILLE 22903 market i

currently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone

(below 30), though not strongly so. The

90-day Market Action Index stands thisweek at 27 so buyers should expect find

reasonable levels of selection.

MARKET ACTION INDEX

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES

Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with several

months of inventory given the current

levels of demand. Watch the quartiles

for changes before the overall market

shifts.



10/10


DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marke

for an average of 127 days. Half of the

listings have come newly on the market

in the past 112 or so days. Watch the 90

day DOM trend for signals of a changin

market.

DAYS ON MARKET

It is not uncommon for

the higher priced homes in an area

(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to

sell than those in the lower quartiles.

About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available

publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.

Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com

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