Jim Cochrane USPS Chief Marketing and Sales Officer and …€¦ · Jim Cochrane USPS Chief...
Transcript of Jim Cochrane USPS Chief Marketing and Sales Officer and …€¦ · Jim Cochrane USPS Chief...
Jim Cochrane USPS Chief Marketing and Sales Officer and Executive
Vice President
Pacific Area Focus Group Meeting Napa, Ca.
March 1, 2016
1 - Estimated.
2 - Before RHB pre-funding, FERS unfunded liability amortization, and non-cash adjustments to workers’ compensation liabilities.
September YTD (12 Months) FY FY
(Billions) 2015 2014
Revenue (Excluding Temporary Exigent Surcharge) 66.8$ 66.4$
Temporary Exigent Surcharge 1 2.1 1.4
Total Revenue 68.9 67.8
Expenses 2 67.7 66.4
Controllable Income (Loss) 2 1.2 1.4
Retiree Health Benefits Pre-Funding (5.7) (5.7)
FERS Unfunded Liability Amortization (0.2) -
Workers' Comp. Fair Value Adj. (0.8) (0.5)
Workers' Comp. Other Non-Cash Adj. 0.4 (0.7)
Net Income (Loss) (5.1)$ (5.5)$
Financial Results:
Total Revenue
2
Financial Results: FY-15
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
FCM Single-Piece FCM PresortLetters & Other
Standard Mail Other (includesPeriodicals)
Total Shipping &Package
International Mail
21.7
42.1
80.3
6.5 4.0
0.9
20.6
41.9
80.0
6.3 4.5
0.9
Pie
ces
- B
illio
ns
FY2014 FY2015
FY2014 155.5
FY2015 154.2
YTD FY2015 has the same number of weekdays, Saturdays, & Sundays as compared to YTD FY2014.
Volume:
September YTD FY2015 vs. SPLY
-5.5% -0.5% -0.3% -4.5% 14.1% 5.2% % Change
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Volume: September YTD FY2015 vs. SPLY
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
$18.0
$20.0
FCM Single-Piece FCM PresortLetters & Other
Standard Mail Other (includesPeriodicals)
Total Shipping &Package
International Mail
$10.6
$17.9 $17.4
$5.5
$13.5
$2.9
$10.2
$18.1 $17.6
$5.1
$15.1
$2.8
$ B
illio
ns
FY2014 FY2015
FY2014 $67.8
FY2015 $68.9
YTD FY2015 has the same number of weekdays, Saturdays, & Sundays as compared to YTD FY2014.
Includes Exigent Surcharge
Revenue inding Exigent Surcptember YTD FY201
-2.9% 1.2% 1.3% -7.3% 11.4% -5.5% % Change
4
Revenue including Exigent Surcharge: September YTD FY2015 vs. SPLY
Financial Results Quarter 1 FY-16
2
1 - Estimated.
2 - Before RHB pre-funding, FERS unfunded liability amortization, and non-cash adjustments to workers’ compensation liabilities.
December YTD (3 Months) FY FY
(Billions) 2016 2015
Revenue (Excluding Temporary Exigent Surcharge) 18.8$ 18.2$
Temporary Exigent Surcharge 1 0.6 0.6
Total Revenue 19.4 18.8
Controllable Expenses 2 18.1 17.7
Controllable Income (Loss) 2 1.3 1.1
Retiree Health Benefits Pre-Funding (1.4) (1.4)
FERS Unfunded Liability Amortization (0.1) -
Workers' Comp. Fair Value Adj. 0.4 (0.8)
Workers' Comp. Other Non-Cash Adj. 0.1 0.3
Net Income (Loss) 0.3$ (0.8)$
USPS Market Dynamics and Strategic Response
Remaining
Future-Ready
The rate and amount
of innovation in the
past 30 years has
been greater than in
the previous 30,000
years
Technologies have
given the world quick,
cheap tools to create
the future faster.
Top technologies are
accelerating disruption
and changing
everything
Disruption is the New Normal
Consumer Behaviors are Changing Rapidly
Customers Seek Instant Gratification:
On-demand, Same-day, Next-day Delivery
Customer-Centric Convenience
PROMPT, RELIABLE SERVICES
TRUSTED, SECURE, RESPECTED BRAND
CONNECTING & INFORMING CITIZENS & COMMUNITIES
CONVENIENT, AFFORDABLE UNIVERSAL SERVICE
HELPING BUSINESSES CONNECT & GROW
USPS MISSION:
The Unrivaled Network
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POST OFFICES PROCESSING CENTERS
VEHICLES EMPLOYEES DELIVERY POINTS
31,000 300+
485,000 153M 210,000
Delivering 40% of the World’s Mail
USPS Global Footprint
PROCESSING EQUIPMENT
8,500
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Printers & Mailers
E-Commerce Retailers
Logistics
Software Vendors
Mail Service Providers
Advertising
Delivery Ecosystem Global
Market Share Trends
Shipping
14
Research indicates that e-commerce will continue its double-digit
annual growth
Source: McKinsey Forecast April 2015
E-commerce Sales ($BN), Actuals (2005 – 2014) and Projected (2015 – 2019)
Trends Driving Online Sales Growth
• Increased returns • Online grocery • Online / mail-order prescriptions
Trends Eroding Online Sales
• Increased online data delivery (primarily documents) • Decreased B2B and B2C publishing and printing (education and eBooks)
• ship-from-store growth • Increased demand for small parts • Increased B2B healthcare shipments
Key Findings
• Forrester projects e-commerce is to experience CAGR of 10% over the next 5 years, translating to $480B in online sales by 2019
• Forrester expects online retail sales in the U.S. in 2015 to account for for 10% of all sales, totaling $334B
Source: Forrester Research eCommerce Forecast, 2014 to 2019
Overall eCommerce Growth, Projections and Growth
E-commerce Growth: Packages
Source: McKinsey Forecast April 2015
CAGR for Subcategories Projected Growth Rate
Ground 5.2%
Deferred 3.4%
Express -1.8%
Same Day/ Next Day 8.8%
Shipping costs will increasingly play a role in business decision making as online
retailers seek to minimize rising shipping costs
Key Statistics for Projected Ground Shipping Growth
• 50% of shoppers will abandon an online order if it doesn’t qualify for free shipping
• 58% of online shoppers cited “shipping costs made the total purchase more than expected” as reason to abandon online shopping care Source NPD Group, BI Tech, http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-shipping-costs-are-a-top-
reason-people-abandon-their-shopping-cart-2014-7
E-Commerce Growth by Category
Lightweight categories are the fastest growing products within e-commerce
Source: The NPD Group/Consumer Tracking Service, 12 months ending December, 2014; Colography Market Share
Share by weight (FY14 data)
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Year Over Year % Change and Dollars ($BN)
$3.7 $4.3
$33.8
$7.8 $1.3 $2.6 $4.5
$1.1
$14.2
$3.1
$10.3
$1.8
$29.3
Year over year % change
Dollars — 12 months ending Dec. 2014 (proj.)
+4% growth in total market 2012-2014
USPS accounts for 61% of all e-commerce deliveries
Market Share Trends
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SOURCE: FYDomesticAir-Ground_qtrly_USPS13879
Domestic Package Market by Carrier (FY15) (Delivery View)
USPS FY15 consisted of 4.3B pieces and $14.9B in revenue, with the
largest revenue contribution from 2&3 day air.
Shipping Market FY15
Note: FY2015 ends in September 2014)
9,652,280 10,391,878 10,445,755 11,219,169 12,002,322
Domestic Package Market Share – Volume (Ground Delivery View)
31.12% 31.47% 33.37% 33.35% 35.69%
44.77% 45.98% 43.42% 42.91% 40.92%
22.15% 20.75% 21.42% 22.05% 21.80%
1.96% 1.80% 1.79% 1.68% 1.58%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SOURCE: Colography DQM DomesticAir-Ground_qtrly_USPS13508, FYDomesticAir-Ground_qtrly_USPS13879
USPS has grown its market share year-over-year in each of the past five
years, while UPS share has declined over the same time period.
Package Market Volume
Total
Mkt,
000s
The Delivery Landscape is Disrupting
Crowd-sourced Delivery. Regional and Leisure Carriers. 21
The Media Landscape is Disrupting
MEDIA DOLLARS ARE GOING DIGITAL
Source: MAGNA Global: US Advertising Marketing Growth Forecasts 2013-105
Forrester Research Digital Marketing Forecasts; eMarketer
In 2015, $58.6B in digital advertising - on track to out perform TV by 2019
Media Growth (US$)
2013 2014 2015E
Digital % shift 17% 15.4% 19.1% UP
Mobile % 110.2% 74% 52.6% UP
(incl. in digital)
TV % -0.6% 3% -2.9% DOWN
Radio % -1.2% -3.3% -2% DOWN
Newspaper/ %
Magazines
-7.8% -10.7% -11.2% DOWN
THE GROWTH OF DIGITAL
Source: eMarketer (www.eMarketer.com)
Note: Age 18+ time spent. April 2014.
Media/Daily Time Spent
2010 2012 2014
Digital % time 29.6% 38.5% 47.1% UP
hh:mm 3:11 4:33 5:46
Mobile %
(incl. in digital) hh:mm
3.7%
0:24
13.4%
1:35
23:3%
2:51 UP
TV %
hh:mm
40.9%
4:24
39.2%
4:38
36.5%
4:28
DOWN
Radio %
hh:mm
14.9%
1:36
13.0%
1:32
10.9%
1:20
DOWN
Newspaper/ %
Magazines hh:mm
7.7%
0:50
5.4%
0:38
3.5%
0:26
DOWN
DAILY TIME SPENT ON DIGITAL
THE GROWTH OF DIGITAL
*****Consumers look at their device 125 times/day
Delivering Customer Value
In the Digital Age
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Relentlessly Focus on the
Customer
Equip, Engage & Empower USPS
Employees
Innovate to Deliver
Value
Invest in our Future
Our Commitment
4 Focus Areas 26
Physical to Digital Mail Promotions
Customized Shipping. Simpler Returns.
Total Real Time Visibility
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Utilizing Data to Personalize an End-to-End Customer
Experience
Across Channels, Across Industries, Across Physical and Digital Domains
Integrated Industry
Personalized, Robust, Marketing Experience
AWARENESS EVALUATE & SELECT
SHOPPING EXPERIENCE
POINT OF SALE & DELIVERY
SERVICE & LOYALTY
Physical, Tactile Mediums Enhance the Buying Experience
Targeted, Time-sensitive
Promotion
The “Wow” Moment Seamless Buying Experience
Timely Delivery
Measure & Tune
Mail represents a tangible touchpoint.
Take advantage of timely promotions to drive your customers to buy online.
Bridging the Physical and Digital for Ubiquitous Commerce
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Mail has a
100% reach
It amplifies
other media
Mail is a proven
media channel
for campaigns
Maximize our share of the projected Political
expenditures by campaigns of $12.3B
SUPPORT
How We Can Help You Win …
DelivertheWin.com – online platform promoting direct mail through support materials including white papers, case studies, etc.
Political Mail Dashboard (2016) providing real-time processing and delivery visibility, with tools for analyzing and sharing data
Webinars highlighting key political industry topics
Continued Operations Support throughout
Predict when mail will be delivered
Track and analyze mail
Real-time-data on when mail drops to tie to
other campaign activities
Access and customize data to incorporate
into voter files, share with campaign team,
develop reports
USPS POLITICAL MAIL DASHBOARD
What will motivate greater use of mail?
Equip, Engage & Empower
Equip, Engage & Empower USPS
Employees
4 Focus Areas 35
Investing in Our Employees
Training
Business Connect Engagement Program
Highly interactive training to build on the foundation of Premier Office training $310M Employee
Engagement Revenue (Program to Date)
Postmaster Essentials Postmasters EAS 18-20 Training Topics: • Leadership • Operational • Knowledge Application
• Efficiency • Product Knowledge • Courtesy
Innovate to Deliver Value
Innovate to Deliver
Value
4 Focus Areas 37
Next Generation Mailbox
Customized Delivery Markets
Informed Delivery App
Ship from Store (Next Day) 20 customers with over 8,439 stores served
• Trips to the door have reduced from 42% to 12%
• Improves customer satisfaction
Give the recipient a view into what they’re receiving that day
• Amazon Fresh (Grocery Delivery)
• Averaging 5,849 deliveries with over 26,000 per week
INFORMED DELIVERY
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Pilot Overview New consumer service that enhances hardcopy mail
Informed Delivery is appealing with high levels of satisfaction
Over 90% say...
- They check and view delivery notifications once a day or more
Over 80% say…
- They are “very likely” to continue to use Informed Delivery
Registered Subscribers: 65,000 (23k receive email alert)
Average Read Rate: 78%
Average time open: 1 hour after sent
Participating Mailers
INFORMED DELIVERY: NY UPDATE
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• Mailer ID on letter size mailpiece
• Image to display for click through
• URL: where customer lands
• Start and end date of image being
used
• Image of flat mailpiece (flats are not scanned today)
• Contact Bob Dixon for assistance
Getting Started as a Mailer
Product Simplification: Ideas That Promote Ease
of Use and Revenue Growth for Industry
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January 2017 • Subtle changes that eliminate redundancy • Structural changes • Mailing standard changes & clarifications • Align with current mail prep and processing operations
Ideas under evaluation • Merge AADC and 3Digit presort auto letters into one category • Move to piece/pound structure in Standard Mail • Create 3rd ounce free for First-Class Mail • Eliminate piece/pound pricing for 3.3 – 3.5 oz weight breaks in
Standard Mail auto letters
Invest in our Future
Invest in our Future
4 Focus Areas 43
Investing in the Future
Informed Visibility From Induct to Delivery – Giving Customer Visibility of Mail
Mobile Delivery Device 225,000 Fully Deployed (Sept 2015)
Small Package Sorting System 31 Total Systems (21 by Peak 2015)
Next Generation Delivery Vehicle Request for Proposals (Sept 2015)
A brand is created through experiences and the people who deliver on it everyday
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Questions?
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