Energy, organization and changeTendencies in the future

Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d.

Futurist, author

Source: Danmarks Statistik

Consumer spending

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1846 1857 1868 1879 1890 1901 1912 1923 1934 1945 1956 1967 1978 1989 2000 2011

Quantity index

Growth in OECD areaReal GNP 1979-2005, pct.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

79-

89

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Euro area

Total OECD

Source: OECD statistics online

Consumption in the 15 oldEU members

GNP growth in the BRIC-countries

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1999 2001 2003 2006 2008

Brazil

China

India

Russian Federation

Kilde: Verdensbanken, online statistics

The cost of one hour of manufacture ultimo 2006

in SEK.

SourceSourceSourceSource: Svensk : Svensk : Svensk : Svensk NNNNääääringslivringslivringslivringsliv, Internationalt Outlook, dec. 2006, Internationalt Outlook, dec. 2006, Internationalt Outlook, dec. 2006, Internationalt Outlook, dec. 2006

Norge 290 kr.

Tyskland 252 kr.

Schwiez 229 kr.

Danmark 271 kr.

Belgien 238 kr.

Finland 249 kr.

USA 183 kr.

Holland 233 kr.

Sverige 221 kr.

Japan 155 kr.

Storbritannien 201 kr.

Frankrig 192 kr.

Spanien 139 kr.

Portugal 57 kr.

Tjekkiet 51 kr.

Estland 47 kr.

Singapore 64 kr.

Polen 45 kr.

Letland 22 Kr.

Rusland (år 2003 ) 8-9 kr.

Kina (år 2003 DI) 7-9 kr.

India’s high-tech centre

Bangalore

� 25.000 software- and computer- engineers educated every year

� 220.000 in India as a whole

� The common language in southern India is English – although with an accent

� Economic growth in Bangalore at the moment: 10% p.a.

� R&D: 6.500 new jobs created in 2003

� India only one out of four BRIC countries

Industrial production

� Fra industrisamfund til servicesamfund

� Fra samlebånd til videns-produktion

� Service, information, produkter med "embeddedinformation"� Oplevelser og iscenesættelse indbygges

� Udlægning af arbejdskraft-krævende produktion til Østeuropa og Østen

� Fremtidens industrivirksomhed:� Højtspecialiserede med lille arbejdskraftandel (ca. 5-10%)

� Produktudvikling, design og marketing i Danmark og produktion i udlandet

Oil comsumption and the price of oil

World heating?

Note: Development in the global middletemperature (at ground- and sealevel) compared to the averagein the period 1960-1990. The black curve is the ”smooth” development of the same data.

Source: Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia

Resources

� It will eventual go wrong – will it not?

� The Chinese in Volkswagens and having huge pigs farms - using air con in their homes

� There is coal enough in at least 500 years

� There is oil resources lasting 40 years – how long is the planning horizon in an oil company?

� There are wind power and solar energy until the end of times

� Technological break-throughs are certain to appear

� What is the real problem with global warming?

� It is the emission of CO2 – not the consumption of energy, that is the problem

� A very different political agenda also exits in the political field of energy

Use of energy under economic growth

� More comfort and controlCooling, air-con, heating Not nessary more energy comsumed

� Self controlling houses – zero energy houses – and plus energy houses actual producing more energy that it consumes

� Bigger houses and flats – more square meters per person� Transportations� 2% growth in the economy makes world trade grow by 4%

� A break-through in fuel cells� High efficiency in diesel engines� More energy used for transportation

� Office buildings – confort and climate control� Low energy apps and gagdets – more energy efficient – cumputer

controlled

Deregulation: Now coming the Power Industry

� Flying in the US in the late 1980th� Falling prices, strikes, busts and bankruptcies� Thereafter consolidations in bigger units making prices go up

again (but not to the same level)

� The financial service sector: Big Bang in London 1986 � Phone companies: Falling prices first – some went bust

– and reconsolidation� The power sector: Up til now a small price fall – but

most of all consolidations � When will the first companies go bust?

� Reaction to an insecure world is to try to control your surroundings – but the most apt to changes and the fittest to the new environment will be the survivors

Situational consumption:The outcome of getting richer

� Private consumption doubles every 30-odd years

� Consumers do not buy out of needs, but increasingly by inspiration, temptation or simply accidental

� Retail Institute Scandinavia research

� The old lifestyle segments have disappeared -everybody buys everything – but not at the same time and day or in the same mood

� Research of elections, sociology of families and research into the way we raise children all confirms this

� Consumer segments have disappeared as before them classes and the old hierarchical society

Density

A B

The dual world of modern The dual world of modern

consumersconsumers

Highquality at low price

Unique

or veryspecialitems

The value chain

End user

Supplier

Producer Distributor

Supplier

Supplier

Supplier

Supplier of supplier

Value added

Why innovation Fails

� Trend following and mental inventions� 3 times as many failures as successes

� Need spotting � double success to failure

� Market research � 4 x success to failure

� Solution spotting: � 7 x success to failure

� ”Taking advance of random events”� 13 x success to failure

� Source: Why innovation Fails, Carl Frankling, Spiro Press (2003) (193 product innovations studied)

Challenges for Companies

Unexploited Opportunities

Unexploited Opportunities

Unexploited Opportunities

Present products and services

Unarticulated needs

Articulated needs

Served market Unserved market

Strategic innovation

Empathic design: Product development through empathy

Trend analysisAnalysis of the Zeitgeist

Think-safari

Wild cards

Strategic scenario process

Analysis of the future and changes in the surroundings

Present products and services

Unarticulated needs

Articulated needs

Served market Unserved market

Time to marked and innovations

� Speeding up the R&D Process� But how fast can we get?

� Parallel processing – Case: ZARA� 3-4 weeks from spotting trends to products hitting

shop shelves

� Getting on the consumers desk, PC, PDA, Cell-phone –what so ever device� Integration consumer behavior into the product

� Getting access to consumers mindsets

� Making index information available everywhere

Innovate or die!

� The knowledge based industry can not survive on knowledge alone

� There are well educated people all over the world

� We have to become more innovative and creative then the rest of the world

� Or suffer a severe setback in GNP

� How can innovation be created?

Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 2007

Demographic development

Denmark 2007-2017

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyro, 2006

Demographic development

Norway 2006-2016

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

Kilde: Svenska Statistiskasentralbyrån, 2007

Demographic development

Sweden 2007-2017

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

The Nursery Generation

� What do you feel like doing today, little Michael?

� Adults as a resource

� Consider oneself as a part of a group – with age and school several groups – leisure time groups, family, school, recreation scheme etc….

� The media-generation – used to multiple TV-channels, advertising, multi-tasking

� Not selfish but individualistic and group based: Everyone has the right to fulfill their dreams

� Parents’ priorities 5-10 years ago: Strong and considering

The SMS-generation(prior the Nokia-generation)

� Get into their pocket

� What’s in it for me?

� Learning to live online:

� Shopping online

� Finds something to by – Google it!

� Gets information in circles: Friends, friends of friends, SMS to groups, MSN-chat, surfing the net

� H&M Carl Lagerfeld collection – sold for approx. 50 mio. Euros in three days

� Reinventing retail: Use it dynamic

Internet-address:www.fremforsk.dk

www.fremforsk.dkwww.fremforsk.dkwww.fremforsk.dkwww.fremforsk.dkwww.plurafutura.comwww.plurafutura.comwww.plurafutura.comwww.plurafutura.com

Jesper Bo JensenDalgas Avenue 48

Postboks 2758100 Århus C

E jbj@fremforsk.dkT 86 11 47 44M 20 67 45 00