Freight Forecasting & ModelingPilot Behavior-based Model Project

Jennifer MurrayTraffic Forecasting Section Chief, WisDOT

Metropolitan Planning Organization Quarterly MeetingJuly 28th, 2015

WisDOT Freight Forecasting

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Analysis Respond to WisDOT business needs using data

Air quality modeling (Commercial VMT)

Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design software inputs

Cooperate and establish partnerships Clarify WisDOT’s current statewide truck model

capabilities Truck traffic to, from, within and through Wisconsin

Truck forecasts, corridor truck growth rates, new routes

Truck vehicle-miles of travel (VMT)

SHRP2 Focus Areas

1) Safety 2) Renewal 3) Reliability 4) Capacity

C20 Implementation

Grants

Tour-Based Modeling

Create behavior-based freight models & data improvements Take conventional practices, and integrate new model

methods and data innovation Break down barriers and

create new interactions Support freight transportation needs through good

planning and operations management Provide transferrable practices and

methods, others can use

Foster Fresh Ideas

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Create a statewide freight forecasting framework that integrates travel demand modeling with freight

analysis tools provides performance metrics and analyzes alternative strategies to move freight

WisDOT Freight Forecasting Project Goal

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Create a Behavior or Tour -based Freight Model System Improve and Expand WisDOT Knowledge Standardize Analysis through Tools and Models

Freight Industry / Supply Chain Practices Sound Economic Principles Multi-modal Movement

Use Data at Appropriate Scale Discuss Policies with Others Compare to Current Model (Trip-based)

WisDOT Proof of Concept Model Pilot Project Objectives

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Scenario: Freight flows from the Port of Los Angeles to Madison through a distribution center in Kansas City

Trip-Based and Tour-Based Freight Models

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Trip-based

•Change in demand through Kansas City cannot be estimated given a new, more attractive interchange point in Milwaukee

Tour-based

•The shift in Madison-bound freight flows through Kansas City to the new Milwaukee interchange point can be calculated

Two Distinct Types of Freight Tours

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Open Tour Closed Tour

I-94 WI/MN state line from Tomah to Maple Bluffs

Cedarburg to Whitefish Bay to Greenfield with return to Cedarburg

Characteristics of Open and Closed Tour-based Freight Models

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Characteristic Open (Supply Chain) Closed (Local Tours)

Tour TypeOpen (chain start location is not the same as chain end location)

Closed (tour start location is the same as tour end location)

Origins and destinations

One may end outside of the region Both ends are inside the region

Distance May be hundreds of miles Typically <100 miles

Duration One or more days Less than one day

Shipments included One One or more

Cargos/commodities included

One One or more

Modes included Truck, rail, water, air Truck

Vehicles included One or more One

Data that Supports Tour-Based Models

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Open (Supply Chain)

•Data on industry locations•Costs of using various methods•Interchange points or transportation logistics nodes

Closed (Local Tours)

•Location and type of land use activities at stop locations•Truck touring data•Number of stops per tour•Distance between stops

Open Tour

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Closed TourMadison

Milwaukee

Kansas City

Halifax

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Closed tour originating in Dane County based on ATRI Truck GPS data during April 2015

Assess tour- model usefulness vs trip- model Potential to provide more detailed answers May be more difficult to validate, operate and maintain (data hog) May identify benefits of a given project, but those benefits may accrue

outside of Wisconsin, or at facilities not under control of WisDOT Improved technical capacity Potential improved freight industry and stakeholder

connections Improved WisDOT’s understanding of freight flows in

relation to economic, land use, and other factors

WisDOT’s Overall Value of Exploring Tour-Based Models

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Policy sensitivity/scenario testing. Examples include Milwaukee intermodal rail facility testing Diversion of Asian freight shipments from west coast to east

coast ports with the Panama Canal Expansion Project Increases in truck fuel prices Capacity expansion projects

Model validation using truck registration data, TRANSEARCH data, Truck Counts, and Truck VMT

Continued coordination

Next Steps For Model Project

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Two types of freight touring models Statewide, all mode, open tour supply chain freight model Closed tour freight truck model within urbanized

(MPO/RPC) areas Comprehensive calibration and validation Scenario / alternatives analysis and sensitivity tests Documentation

Model Project Deliverables

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…by Summer 2016

Bigger Picture Project Outcomes

Clarified forecasting capabilities Consistent freight forecasting tool set to

evaluate needs Documented patterns of freight in Wisconsin More robust forecasts Information for other types of decision-making Improved stakeholder relationships Knowledge transfer to other states, MPOs and others

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Questions

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