Life histories of Calanus species in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean and responses to climate forcing

Jeffrey Runge and Andrew Pershing, University of Maine

David Kimmel and James Pierson University of Maryland Center for Environmental

Sciences

CollaboratorsA. Leising, NOAA, SWFSC

C. Johnson, BIO, Fisheries and Oceans, Canada

S. Plourde, IML, Fisheries and Oceans, Canada

R. Harris, PML, England

D. Bonnet, Univ. Montpellier, France

W. Melle, IMR, Norway

A. Gislason, Marine Res. Inst. Iceland

D. Speirs, Univ. Strathclyde, Scotland

D. Mackas, IOS, Fisheries and Oceans, Canada

Overall question

How will populations of Calanus species in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans respond to interannual and longer term, climate forced variability in water column temperature and food supply?

Calanus species of interest:Sibling species in two sympatric species pairs:North Atlantic:

C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus

North Pacific:

C. marshallae and C. pacificus

Develop an IBM life cycle model that includes a mechanistic understanding of dormancy and is parameterized for the particular life history traits of each species, tested and refined for regions of interest.

Calanus finmarchicus dormancy dynamics in the NWA

Dormancy vs temperature and Chl-a climatologiesTemperature

Chl

Johnson et al. 2008

Calanus pacificus dormancy dynamics in the CCSDormancy vs temperature and SWIFS-derived Chl-a climatologies

Leising et al. in prep

Lipid accumulation window hypothesis

• Individual Calanus can only enter diapause if their food and temperature history allows them to accumulate sufficient lipid for overwintering and gonad development

• Decision to proceed to dormancy is initiated when lipid stores reach a preset threshold (30% lipids by weight in stage CIV)

• Exit from dormancy by endogenous timer or when lipid stores decrease below a preset threshold

The Five Project Objectives

1. Compile and analyze data sets across species and regions; publish a series of comparative synthesis papers (Pierson, Runge, collaborators)

a) Demographic data sets

b) Physiological rate characteristics: egg production, growth and development rate

AG: Anticosti Gyre, NW Gulf of St. Lawrence

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Onset

Emergence

Region specific datasets: egg production in NWA

Campbell &Head 2000)

Runge et al. 2006)(Plourde et al. data)

Runge and Plourde 1996)

Development Rates vs. Temperature• C. marshallae is

outlier, with very long stage durations, primarily due to extra-long relative C5 stage

• C. finmarchicus has fastest development-at-temperature

• C. pacificus and C. helgolandicus lie between these two extremes

The Five Project Objectives2. Construct synoptic climatologies in

selected regions to examine sensitivities of individual species life histories to climate forcing (Kimmel)– Example: Western, central and eastern North

Atlantic Ocean. Each day SLP (NCAR dataset) from 1950-2007 into a weather pattern modes.

– Downscaled the patterns to surface winds (u and v) and air temperature from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set

D. Kimmel

Sea Level Pressure

Frequency of pattern by month

Vector-diagram of the average winds

Air temperature anomalies

D. Kimmel

D. Kimmel

The Five Project Objectives

3. Investigate mortality: compilation of empirical mortality estimates and comparison with “climatological mortality” estimates based on life history theory. (Runge, Pershing, Leising, student)

Are there common regional and/or global patterns of mortality? Are the stage-specific, temperature-dependent mortality rates needed to accurately close life cycle models consistent with life history theory?

Optimal life history theory Assume populations are at an Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS). A population is at an ESS, with respect to some phenotype or set of phenotypes, if a rare gene introduced into the population, and whose carriers have a different phenotype from the mean of the population, is always eliminated.

The ESS will be the survivorship and reproduction schedule, lx and mx (where x is age in d) which maximizes the intrinsic rate of increase for the population. That is, for any other feasible schedules (lx

’ and mx’ ):

The predictionsof mortality in a population of Acartia clausii in Jakle’s Lagoon (Landry’s data)Myers and Runge1983

The Five Project Objectives

4. Refine our stage-structured, IBM life-cycle model with parameterization tuned for each of the sibling species pairs in each region of interest: Leising, F. Maps (post-doc)

Life cycle model with lipid diapause rule:

comparison with observations

DATA MODEL

The Five Project Objectives5. Using the life cycle model, evaluate the

sensitivity of Calanus life histories responses to the climate change scenario climatologies (Leising, Maps, Pershing, all).

– How do the sibling species between and within the “finmarchicus” and “helgolandicus” groups respond to similar modes of climate forcing?

– Look for opportunities to link the 1-D life cycle model with 3-D circulation and temperature fields to investigate the role of advection on observed distribution and abundance patterns