Jeeban panthi
Transcript of Jeeban panthi
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Precipitation Climatology over the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal
1Jeeban Panthi, 1Piyush Dahal, 2Ramchandra Karki 1The Small Earth Nepal, 2Dept of Hydrology and Meteorology
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Data used
Source Format Duration
DHM ground observation
Point 1981-2012
APHRODITE (interpolated)
Grid (0.05°) Grid (0.25°)
1961-2004 1961-2007
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Precipitation stations from different agro-ecological zones of the basin
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Agro-ecological
Zones
Station
Index
Latitude Longitude Elevation Location District
Trans-Himalaya
(>2500m)
610 29.05 83.88 3465 Ghami Mustang
816 28.55 84.23 2680 Chame Manang
Mountain
(>2500m)
806 28.4 84.37 3650 Larke
Samdo
Gorkha
616 28.36 83.13 2530 Gurja
Khani
Myagdi
Hill
(500m-2500m)
814 28.18 83.48 1740 Lumle Kaski
1057 28.01 85.07 1240 Pansayak
hola
Nuwakot
808 27.93 84.42 965 Bandipur Tanahun
Lowland (Terai)
(<500m)
903 27.35 84.32 270 Jhawani Chitwan
920 27.55 84.82 274 Manahar
i
Makwanpur
Precipitation stations from different agro-ecological zones of the basin
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APHRODITE Validation (0.05°)
R² = 0.9221
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 100 200 300
R² = 0.9625
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 1000 2000 3000
R² = 0.9853
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
0 300 600 900 1200 1500
R² = 0.8276
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0
Trans-Himalaya Mountain
Hill Terai
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APHRODITE Validation (0.25°)
R² = 0.6913
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 100 200 300
R² = 0.9743
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0
R² = 0.9321
0.0
300.0
600.0
900.0
1200.0
1500.0
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0
R² = 0.8882
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Trans-Himalaya Mountain
Hill Terai
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Monthly variation of precipitation
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
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1000.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly p
reci
pit
atio
n (
mm
)
Terai Hill Mountain Trans-Himalaya
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Precipitation distribution - spatial
Annual Monsoon
Post monsoon Winter Pre-monsoon
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Annual Change in Precipitation (mm)
Agro-ecological
zone Winter
Pre-
monsoon Monsoon Post-monsoon Annual
Trans-Himalaya -0.619 -1.022 1.898 -0.927* -1.654
Mountain -4.717*** -4.675** 2.586 -0.713 -6.293
Hill -0.425+ -0.218 3.233 -0.128 2.745
Terai -0.580 0.908 0.168 -0.435 -0.362
Average basin -1.458** -1.987* 0.419 -0.619 -4.267
Significant at: *** -> 0.001, ** -> 0.01, * -> 0.05, + -> 0.1
Methodology: Sen’s slope and MK test
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Precipitation Anomaly
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Trend of Rainy Days
y = -0.133x + 281.16
y = 0.3473x - 587.4
y = 0.0645x - 23.471
y = -0.202x + 462.17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Nu
mb
er
of
rain
y d
ays
Number of Rainy Days around GRB (>2.5mm in a day)
Trans Himalaya Mountain Hill Terai
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Monsoon timing
y = -0.0864x + 41975
y = 0.3461x + 41218
y = 0.4325x - 756.97
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
21-May
10-Jun
30-Jun
20-Jul
09-Aug
29-Aug
18-Sep
08-Oct
28-Oct
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Mo
nso
on
du
rati
on
(D
ays)
Monsoon onset Monsoon withdrawl Monsoon duration
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Livelihood vulnerability assessment
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0.10
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0.40
0.50
Socio-demogaphicprofile
Livelihood strategies
Social network
Health
Food
Water
Natural disaster
Climate variability
Dhading Syangja Kapilvastu
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Conclusion
• Dry seasons and regions are getting dryer
• Precipitation is decreasing in recent decades
• Rainy days are decreasing
• Monsoon withdrawal is getting delayed
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Landuse and livestock distribution
Landuse in the Gandaki river basin (GRB)
Livestock distribution in the GRB
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Thank you