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Japan's Disaster Resilient Smart Energy Economy
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Disaster Resilience can be an affordable byproduct of a Smart Energy Future. Dan Bihn, Engineer-Storyteller October 2016
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Transcript of Japan's Disaster Resilient Smart Energy Economy
DisasterResiliencecanbeanaffordablebyproductofaSmartEnergyFuture.DanBihn,Engineer-StorytellerOctober2016
Incaseyoumissedallthetweets……SmartEnergyhasbeenhappeninginJapanforawhile.
DisasterResilienceistechnicallyeasytobuild…
HavingDisasterResiliencepayitswayonadailybasisisthechallenge
Japanmayhavefigureditout
=GridConnectedEVs
SmartHomes
MeaningfulPrices
DisasterResilience
NewBusinesses
IfyoudecidetobuildahouseinJapantoday…
Youwillbeasked,Howsmartwouldyoulikeittobe?
Howmuchsolarwouldyoulike?
Wouldyoulikeafuelcelltogenerateelectricityandheatyourbathwater?
Wouldyoulikealithium-ionbattery thatcanpoweryourhomefor3daysifdisasterstrikesandhelpreduceyourelectricitycostonadailybasis…
… bychargingitatnightfor6¢/kWh.
…andsometimessellingitbacktotheutilityintheafternoonfor25¢/kWh?
Andwouldyoulikethatbatterytobeyourcar?
HowdidJapangettothepointwheredisasterresiliencecanactuallypayforitselfonday-to-daybasis?
NaturalDisastersarePartofJapaneseHistoryandCulture
September1st,1923TheGreatKantoEarthquakeAbout150,000peopledied– mostlyintheensuingfirestorm.
September1st becameDisasterPreventionDay.Companiesandcommunitiesoftenhavehands-onfiredrills.MyfriendSugawara-sandemonstratesthatitisseriousbusiness,butfuntoo.It’sapartoflife.
JustBeforetheTripleDisasterMarch11,2011(“3-11”)
Earthquake,Tsunami,Fukushima
ThisishowJapanmadeitselectricity.
Type AnnualEnergy PeakCapacity
Nuclear 29.2% 20.2%NaturalGas 29.4% 25.5%Coal 24.7% 15.7%Oil 7.6% 19.1%Hydro 7.3% 8.6%PumpedHydro -0.7% 10.6%
TheaggregateconsumptionofelectricityforTokyoonasummerday
Onatypicalsummerday,Tokyo’selectricityusepatternlookslikethis.Notethenotchatnoon.That’swhenmostofficesinJapanplaymusicorringabellsignalingitstimeforlunch.Energy-consciousemployeesturnofflightsandcomputermonitors.Andtheregion’selectricityusagedrops5%.Really.
Thishand-drawngraphshowshowJapangeneratedandusedelectricitybeforethedisaster.Roughly30%Nuclear,30%NaturalGas,25%Coal,7%Oil,8%Hydro.
WhenthesuncameuponMarch11th,2011,Japanwasplanningonincreasingitsdependenceonnuclearpowerfrom30%to50%by2030.
At2:46PMonFriday,March11,2011,amagnitude9.0earthquakestruck70milesoffthecoastofnorthernJapancausingseveraldeathsandtriggeringtheimmediatecollapseofthepowergridinnorthernJapan.
30to90minuteslater,tsunamiwavescameashorekilling20,000peopleandtriggeringthemeltdownof3ofJapan’s54nuclearreactors.
ImmediateGridcollapse
BlackoutArea4PMMarch11,2011
BeforethegroundstartedshakinginTokyo,230milesfromtheepicenter,mostofnorthernHonshu(Tohoku)hadlostpower.
3dayslater,thesituationhadimproved,butthelargestcityintheregion,Sendai,wasstillinthedark.
8dayslater,onlythedevastatedcoastalareaswerewithoutpower.
ButontheeveningofMarch11th noteveryonewasinthedark…
AnexperimentalmicrogridatthisteachinghospitalinSendaikeptsomeofthelightson.
Themicrogridissurroundedbysolarpanelsinthemiddleofcampus.
Dr.HirosefromNTTFacilitiesshowsoffthepartofthesystemthatworkedthebest– thePVpanelsandbatteries.
DownthestreetatTohokuUniversity,Dr.Tohjioverlookshissmallmicrogrid that…
…keptthelightsoninhisbeautifulnewwoodenlaboratory.
Agradstudentproudlyshowsthephotosfromthefirstnightaftertheearthquake.
Beforethedisaster,54nuclearreactorsprovided30%ofJapaneseelectricity…
… todayonly3arerunning(October1,2016).
Providingelectricityduringthedailypeakbecameabigchallenge.
PeakSupplyGap
Onesuccessfulstrategyhasbeentoroll-outmeaningfultime-of-useratesthatencourageusingelectricitywhenit’sabundantandavoidusingitwhenit’sscarce.
$$$$$ $
Ideally,theresultswouldlooksomethinglikethis…
… buttherewasaHUGEobstacleintheway.
Once-a-monththisgentlemanwalksthisneighborhood…
…readingmeterslikethis(patentedin1888).
Hesometimesusesbinoculars.
Theelectricutilitycompanyknewexactlyhowmuchelectricityyouusedeachmonth.
Thisusedtobeimpressive.
Itwasthebestanyonecoulddo… for100years.
Overthepast5years,Japanhasdoneanimpressivejobrollingoutsmartmetersthatwirelesslyreportconsumptionevery15to30minutes.
Nowthepriceofelectricitycanchangethroughouttheday…
… higherinthemiddleofthedaywhengridsupplyisstruggling,loweratnightwhenthereisanexcessofcapacity.
Time Rate(yen/kWh)
11PMà 7AM 11.827AMà 1PM 28.181PMà 4PM 53.164PMà 11PM 28.18
SummerRatesJulythroughSeptember
Nowakilowatt-hourcanvaryfromabout12¢tomorethan50¢overaday.
InthePacificNorthwest,wepayabout10¢.
(Todaytheyenistradingforabout102.8yen/dollar,so1yenisabout1cent.)
SmartEnergyTransformation
Pricesareagoodwaytogetpeople’sattention.
Butcreatingcoolproductscanbeamuchbetterwaytogo.
Q:What’sthereturn-on-investmentofyouriPhone?
A:What?
InOctober,2011– 7monthsafterthedisaster– NissanshowedofftheirLeaf-to-Homeconceptsystematthebiggestconsumertradeshowoftheyear.
PVontheroofofthismodelhomechargesthecarwhenthesunshines.Whenthesungoesdown,powerflowsfromthecartothehome.Nogridneeded.
Pointmade.
Dr.TohjiatTohokuUniversitywasthinkingthesamethingforhiswholelab.
DanwasdelightednottobeinOregon,sohecouldhelpoutatthepump.
SmartHomes
Thissmarthomehasahomeenergymanagementsystem(HEMS)thatmanagesheat,cooling,andlightingaswellastheessentialJapanese-stylebath.
Thesehigh-qualityLEDsshownhereareexpectedtooutlastthehome,sotheyarehardwiredintothisfixturemakingitsmallerandmorebeautiful.
WhentheLEDgoesout,youreplacethewholefixture.Butbythenitmightbetimetoreplacethewholehouse.
Beautyisstandardequipment.
Theactioncharacterisoptional.
April1st,2016
Thisisnotajoke.
April1,2016,Japanderegulateditsretailelectricindustry.
ManypunditsintheU.S.thoughtwholesalederegulationshouldbethefirststep(IthinktheJapanesegovernmentthoughtsotoo).Buttheutilitiesfoughtbacksoitdidn’tworkoutthatway.
Thegoodnewsisthatwithsmartmeters,thenewelectricityretailersarecreatingsomereallyinterestingproductsandservices.Alotoftime-of-userateplanshaveemerged.
Themostinterestingprogramsofferadiscountforallowingtheutilitytocontrolyourairconditionerwhenyou’renotathome.
IntegratingEVchargingisnextontheagenda.
SoftbankisJapan’s#1cellphoneserviceprovider.Theynowsellelectricity,too.
Todayyoucanchoosefromhundredsofelectricityproviders– upsignificantlyfromjust1lessthanayearago.Conveniencestores,cellphoneserviceproviders,gasolinecompanies,travelcompanies,smalltowns.
Sowhat?
Buylow,sellhigh.Chargeoff-peak,dischargeon-peak.
Dynamicpricingisunlockingthevalueofbatterystorage–stationaryandmobile.
Batteriesaresoldasawaytosavemoney.And,bytheway,theyareveryusefulincaseofdisaster.
So….
Grid(orHome)connectedelectricvehicles(V2GandV2H),plus….
SmartHomes,plus…
Meaningfulelectricitypricing,equals…
Newbusinessopportunities,and…
DisasterResilience.
=GridConnectedEVs
SmartHomes
MeaningfulPrices
DisasterResilience
NewBusinesses
DanBihn.com
DisasterResilienceisanaffordablebyproductofasmartenergyfuture.
“Fillitupwithsunshine,please.”
