Japan’s Aging Society - Mansfield · PDF file1 Japan’s Aging Society: Policies to...
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Japan’s Aging Society:Policies to Meet the Challenge
Capitol Hill Briefing
Yukiko T. EllisFormer Mansfield Fellow (2002-2004)
March 4, 2005E-mail: [email protected]
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Outline
1. Population Aging in Japan and the World
2. Effects of Population Aging
3. Japanese Government’s Policies
4. Policy Alternatives
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Speed of Global Population Aging(Number of years for 65 and over to double from 7% to 14%)
Developed countries
115
85
69
26
45
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
France (1865-1980)
Sweden (1890-1975)
U.S.A. (1944-2013)
Spain (1947-1992)
Japan (1970-1996)
Developing countries
27
23
22
21
20
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
China (2000-2027)
Tunisia (2009-2032)
Thailand (2003-2025)
Brazil (2011-2032)
Columbia (2017-2037)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center
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Births and Total Fertility Rate, Japan, 1947-2002
Source: “Population Statistics,” Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare
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Actual and Projected Population, Japan, 1950-2050
Source: National Population and Social Security Research Institute
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Trends in the Major Age Composition, 1950-2050
Source: National Population and Social Security Research Institute
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Population Aging: Japan
Social Trend• Very few out of wedlock babies• Marrying late or staying single• Percent women who work before marriage:
49 % (1955) ==> 98% (1992)• Percent matchmaking:
32% (1955) ==> 7% (1998)
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Percent Unmarried by Age Group and Sex, 1935-1995
Women
0102030405060708090100
1935 1955 1975 1995
Year
Per
cen
t 20-2425-2930-34
Men
0102030405060708090100
1935 1955 1975 1995
Year
Pe
rce
nt 20-24
25-2930-34
Source: Nihon University Population Research Institute
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Population Aging: Japan
Social Trend: 2002Live Births 1.1 million+Induced Abortions 0.3 million+:
Among-- those expecting the 3rd child: 13%-- those expecting the 4th child: 30%-- married women under 50: 1 in 4
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Effects of Population Aging• Limitation of economic growth due to:
– Workforce reduction– Decrease in consumption– Decline in economic vitality
• Increase in national debt– as a consequence of diminishing savings
• Increase in social security expenditure:– Pension, medical care, nursing, welfare
• Eroding international competitive edge
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Effects of Population Aging
(Continued)• Collapse of regional community• Deterioration of educational environment• Deterioration of economic infrastructure
(e.g. roads)
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Japanese Government’sGender Equality Policies
• 1995-1999 “Angel Plan”– Ministries of Education, Heath, Labor, and
Construction– Improvement in child care centers and
maternity health/medical care system• 2000-2004 “New Angel Plan”
– Plus Ministries of Finance and Home Affairs– Higher target values
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Japanese Government’sGender Equality Policies
• 2005-2009 “New New Angel Plan”– Same 6 Ministries– Focus
(1) Independence of youths(2) Support for work and family(3) Importance of life and family(4) Further support for child rearing
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Survey on Marriage and Births:Single Women, Aged 18-34, 1982-2002, Japan
100%(3494)
100%(3612)
100%(3647)
100%(2605)
100%(211(# Sample)0)
Total
6.7%
5.0%
88.3%
2002
6.0%4.6%2.5%1.7%Uncertain
4.9%5.2%4.6%4.1%Do not
intend to marry
89.1%90.2%92.9%94.2%Intend to marry
1997199219871982
Source: National Population and Social Security Research Institute, 2002
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Alternative Policies1. Economic Assistance
Expenses for pregnancy, child care, housing, educationRe-prioritize nation’s fund distribution
Current social security benefits:-- 48% Pension-- 32% Medical care-- 3% Family supportEuropean experience:-- 60% for Pension and Medical care-- 10% for Family support
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Alternative Policies
2. Adjustment in Workplace EnvironmentRestrict overtimeIncrease work schedule flexibilityAllow regular part-time statusAllow re-entry into workforceEnforce use of vacation timeChange corporate culture: Gender-equality policy as
costImprove availability of child care services for part-
time workers
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Alternative Policies
3. Removal of Participation BarrierBarrier for foreign workers
Ministry of Justice: ImmigrationMinistry of Health, Labor, Welfare: EmploymentLocal Governments: Foreigner RegistrationWho is responsible for foreign workers’ well-being?
Barrier for youthsTraining of “Freeters”
Licensing
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Alternative Policies4. Reform in Education System
Improve quality of education in public schoolsReconsider role of colleges
5. Medical and Financial Support for InfertilityNeed better statistics on infertility for policy-makingProvide financial and medical supportReview law on in-vitro fertilization and surrogate births
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Alternative Policies
6. After Retirement PolicyRedistribute public pension benefitsPromote independence
Allocate more resources on preventive medicine(including suicide prevention)Emphasize within-generation independence(including better financial asset management services)
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
JapanUnited States
Total Fertility Rate for Japan and the United States: 1950 to 2002(Births per woman)
Sources: Japan Statistical Yearbook 2005 and U.S.Census Bureau
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In Summary• Changes in people’s awareness are taking place
– Cabinet Office awareness survey (2004)“Women should stay at home”
1979: Agree 72.5% Disagree 20.4%2004: Agree 45.2% Disagree 48. 9%
– Itochu Chairman’s statement50% executive staff to be women & foreigners in 10 yearsMore choices of work stylesFinancial incentive for reinstatement
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In Summary
• Aim for “Work, Life, Balance” for everyone– Personal choice on how to use free time– In short-term, more complex labor management– In long-term, better work moral and productivity– Loss of income for fixed period in exchange for
more time with children
• Is there public support and political will?– Enact laws and enforce them