Japan’s Use of Biomass for Power · Delivered Fuel Cost per MWh Produced Fuel Cost as % of...
Transcript of Japan’s Use of Biomass for Power · Delivered Fuel Cost per MWh Produced Fuel Cost as % of...
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Japan’sUseofBiomassforPower
PresentedbyWilliamStrauss,PhD,MBAPresident,FutureMetricsSeptember24,2019
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Dr.WilliamStrauss,President
NamedoneofthemostinfluenAalleadersinthe
biomasssectorin2016and2017byArgusMedia.Recipientofthe2012
InternaAonalExcellenceinBioenergyAward.
Aleaderintheindustryfortwodecades.
JohnSwaan,PelletPlantOperaBons
JohnisaleadingexpertonpelletplantoperaAons.Heis
thefounderofPacificBioEnergyandproducerofthefirstbulkshipmentofwoodpelletsfromNorthAmericatoEurope(1998).Recipientof
the2014InternaAonalFoundersAward.
KeyMembersoftheFutureMetricsTeam
AnneHeBossler,MarketIntelligenceExpert
AnneWeprovidesdetailedmarketintelligenceon
renewableenergypoliciesaroundtheworldwithastrongfocusonJapan.
AnneWespeaks,reads,andwritesfluentJapanese.Shewasthe2013recipientofthePresident’sAwardfromtheMaineInternaAonal
TradeCenter.
LaurenzSchmidt,TechnologySpecialist
Laurenzisagloballyrespectedexpertin
thermodynamicsandmassandenergyflowdynamicsintherenewableenergysector.Hereviewsandanalyzesalladvancedpellettechnologies.
YoshinobuKusano,JapanPolicyAdvisor
YoshiisoneofthemosthighlyrespectedparAcipantsinthe
Japanesebiomasssector.HewasakeymemberofSumitomo’spellettradingoperaAons.Heprovides
valuedinsightsintoJapanesepolicydevelopments.
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FutureMetricsForthcomingComprehensiveReportonJapan’sBiomassPowerMarkets
AnneHeBosslerisperformingdetailedprimaryresearchforFutureMetrics’reportonJapan’sbiomasspowersector.
AnneWeisexaminingJapaneselanguagedocumentsanddatabasesfromprimarysourcesin
JapanthatarenotavailableinEnglish,andverifyingthedatawithmulAplesources.
HerworkhasdiscoverednumerousdifferencesbetweenthedatathatsheiscollecBngandthedatapresentedbysomeofthemainstreamprovidersoftradedataandinformaBononJapan’suseofbiomassfuels.
AcomprehensivereportontheJapanesebiomassmarkets,includingforecasts,willbepublishedbyFutureMetricsinOctober2019.
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Thereasonthatthisindustryexists…
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Ifthetrendinthechartbelowisfollowed,wewillreleasemostofthegeologiccarbonsequesteredoverhundredsofmillionsofyearsoveraspanofabout250years.
CurveisfromasimulaBonbyFutureMetrics
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AXer2020,undercurrentpolicy,growthinEuropeandUKisalmostover.JapanandSouthKoreaarethemajornewgrowthmarkets.
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S.Korea
WhathappensinS.KoreaimpactsJapan
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AsRECpricesdrop,S.KoreanuAliAesreduceco-firingraAos.
ThedramaAcdropinRECpriceshasrippleeffectsintotheJapanesepelletmarkets.
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ExcesssupplyinVietnamiscreaAngpressureonCanadianexportstoJapan
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Japan
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JapaneseGovernment’sTargetEnergyMixin2030
Source:StrategicEnergyPlan,GovernmentofJapan,July2018
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Ifnucleardoesnotreach20%-22%andcoalandNGreach2030targets,howwillthegridstayenergized?
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AsJapanistransiBoning,itscoalpoweredfleetwillbechallenged
Status NumberofPlants MWcancelled 15 8,318
construction 17 9,743operating 135 44,483permitted 4 2,600pre-permit 4 1,812retired 7 746shelved 2 1,135
184 68,837source:GlobalCoalTracker,September8,2019;AnalysisbyFutureMetrics
Japan Coal Power Stations (greater than 30MW)
WoodpelletswillbealargepartofthesoluBon.Severalmajorpowerplantconversionsarelikelyinthefuture.
Andwoodpelletsalreadyarepartof
thesoluBonforIPP’s.Source:GlobalCoalPlantTracker,PublishedbyGlobalEnergyMonitor
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Evolution of the Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) The FiT was revised downwards from 24 yen to 21 yen
and now it is determined by public tender.
The FiT is fixed for 20 years (no adjustment for inflation) FiT money comes from the ratepayers, therefore it is designed to have a ceiling in
order to avoid too much burden on the ratepayers.
Current approved FiT projects support substantial quantities of renewable power.
There are hundreds of small (avg. 21 MW, median 6.25 MW) biomass fueled independent power projects operating or in the pipeline*.
*source:hHp://www.mori-energy.jp/hatsuden1.html;translatedfromJapanesebyFutureMetrics
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Source:hHp://www.mori-energy.jp/hatsuden1.html;translatedfromJapaneseandverificaBonandanalysisbyFutureMetrics
MW’s
Largerplantsnotongraph
IncludesbothoperaAngandinthepipeline
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FiTapprovedprojectsunderconstrucAonorinpipelinetendtobelargerthanthosealreadyoperaAng.
Thereare70projectsstarAngin2020orlatertotaling3,104MWwithanaveragesizeof44.3MW
MW’s
Source:hHp://www.mori-energy.jp/hatsuden1.html;translatedfromJapaneseandverificaBonandanalysisbyFutureMetrics
3,104 MWofnewcapacity80% Assumedcapacityfactor
21,751,851 AnnualMWh'sgenerated38% Assumedefficiency2.63 MWhfuelperMWhofpowerat38%
57,241,713 TotalMWh'soffuelneeded40% Proportionoffuelthatispellets
22,896,685 TotalMWhfrompellets17.5 GJpertonneofpellets4.9 MWhinonetonneofpellets
4,673,000 Totaltonnesperyearofpellets
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TheIPPpowerstaAonsusefluidbedboilersandcanuseawidevarietyoffuels.
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Pelletsarehighercostpertonne.
38% power plant efficiency
Delivered Fuel Cost per MWh
Produced
Fuel Cost as % of Revenue (biomass from FiT, coal from
day ahead rate)Pellets $84.13 38%PKS $51.75 24%Difference $32.38 15%Coal $40.49 61%
2.63 MWhs of Fuel to Make One MWh Power
However,ajeradjusAngformoisturecontent,thedifferenceissignificantlyless.
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PelletsarepartofthefuelmixforJapaneseIPPsbecausepelletsareavailableatacostthatallowsprofitable
generaBonunderFiT.
AND
Thesuppliersofpelletfuelare“bankable”
[forthcomingsustainabilityrequirementswillchallengemanyPKSsuppliers]
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ExampleofoneIPP’sBiomassPowerStaAonPipeline-RENOVA
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COD=commercialoperaBondate
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NotJusttheIPPs
ForthemajoruBliBes,carbonemissionslimitsandminimumefficiencyrequirementsarefoundaBonsforthedemandforwoodpellets.
ItisquitepossiblethatafewofthelargecoalpowerstaBonswillfullyconverttowoodpellets.
Ifthathappens,eachwilldemandmillionsoftonnesperyearofpellets!
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In 2018, the government launched the first tender for 180MW biomass generation for projects of 10MW or more capacity. The undisclosed ceiling price was JPY 20.60 /kWh. 7 bidders submitted proposals and 1 proposal got an award: Soma Kyodo Power for the 2,000MW Shinchi power plant co-fired by biomass and coal at JPY 19.60/kWh for 35MW of biomass capacity or 1.75pc of its 2GW power plant co-fired with coal1.
Bid fees were the same as for the solar tenders, i.e. JPY 127,000 general submission fee, primary deposit of JPY 500/kW and secondary deposit of JPY 5,000 /kW for the winning bid project.
However, Soma canceled its winning bid and is going to bid into the upcoming capacity market system which is likely to be more lucrative. The Japanese capacity market will formally launch in 2021.
The 2019/2020 biomass power tender that was announced will exclude co-firing projects. The currently ongoing tender for 2019/2020 which requires bids by December 6th, 2019 and seeks 120MW capacity, excludes any projects co-fired with biomass and coal, palm kernel shell, palm oil and palm trunk.
METI had discussed adding new biomass feedstocks for power generation under the FIT scheme, such as empty fruit bunches, plant shells such as coconut, cashew nut, walnut, almond, pistachio and sunflower seed, along with napier grass, sorghum, jatropha seeds and plant oils such as canola, soy, peanut, sunflower and palm acid.
However, no decision has been reached yet, due to the question re. how to ensure sustainability of these feedstocks. A newly launched working group along with the committee has taken over the discussions to establish how to confirm sustainability, aiming to finalize it by autumn 20192.1PressReleaseDecember18th,2018ofJapanLowCarbonInvestmentPromoBonOrganizaBon(⼀一般社団法⼈人低炭素投資促進機構)2ArgusNews&AnalysisMay27th,2019
FromForthcomingFutureMetricsJapanReport