Japan Low Carbon Societies (LCS) Scenarios Study toward 2050

Japan Low Carbon Societies (LCS)Japan Low Carbon Societies (LCS)Scenarios Study toward 2050Scenarios Study toward 2050

Junichi Fujino ([email protected])NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

2006 AIM Training Workshop19th October 2006, Tsukuba, Japan

脱温暖化2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

1. Why we need Low-Carbon Societies

?

Global Warming

ContaminationContamination

Deforestation

Waste (3R)

Ecosystem

Illegal Waste TreatmentResourceexhaustion

Network

Others

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(100

mil.

per

sons

)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050Year

GD

P(tr

i. ye

n)

Population Decrease

Economic Growth

Medium variant: 127 mil ('00) ➜ 101 mil ('50)

Survey of citizens onenvironmental concerns

(Marks allocated)

http://nikkeibp.jp/style/biz/enquete/051021quick_eco/

Annual growth rate of GDP per capita:

1%/yr – 2%/yr

Population Projections for Japan:2001-2050by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (2002)

Japan White Paper on Environment in 2005

Subtitle「脱温暖化－“人”と“しくみ”づくりで築く新時代」

Toward Low Carbon Societies

Structuring New Paradigm with human resources and institutions

It has past one and half year since Kyoto Protocol has been enforced, but…

December 1997Kyoto Protocol Adopted

http://www.jccca.org/

Photo: Climate network

February 16 2005Kyoto Protocol Enforced

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/neteye5/shimizu/20050217nd82h000_17.html

Kyoto International Conference Room

1990

1995

1997

2000

20040%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

100

200

300

400

Total GHG emissions in Japan(Mt-C)

344 370 323:Kyoto Target

Sha

re o

f Sec

tor-

wis

e G

HG

em

issi

ons

(%)

Industry

Commercial

Residential

Transportation

CO2350.7

CH4, 6.7N2O, 7.0HFC, 2.3PFC, 1.7SF6, 1.2

FY FY 20020044

Can Japan observe Kyoto target?

7.4% increase compared with that in 1990

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report of JAPAN (2006.8)Ministry of the Environment, JapanGreenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan (GIO), CGER, NIES

6% reduction

We have to reduce

13.4%!

AIM, NIES

AIM/Enduse

AIM/Top-downFossil fuel Electricity

Non-energy goods

CO2

CO2

Production sector

Government

Household

Investment

Production factor

Rent

CO2

CO2

Consumption

Consumption

AIM/Material

Prod. sector

Household

Pollution Man.sector

market

Government

CapitalLabor

Pollution

EnergyFinal cons.

EnergyIntermediate

Recycle

Produced commodities

EnergyIntermediate

CO2

CO2

CO2

Env. capitalLabor

Env. IndustryEnv.

investment

Foreign

Trade

Internationalprice and trade

Energy Energy technology Energy service

• Oil• Coal• Gas• Solar• Electricity etc.

• Blast furnace• Power generation• Air conditioner• Boiler• Automobile etc.

• Crude steel products• Sectoral GDP• Cooling demand• Lighting• Transportation etc.

Energy consumptionCO2 emissions

Technologyselection

Energy servicedemands

Energy database• Energy type• Energy price• Energy constraints• CO2 emission factor

Technology database• Technology price• Energy consumption• Supplied service

amounts• Technology share• Lifetime

Socioeconomic scenario• Population growth• Economic growth• Industrial structure• Employment• Lifestyle

Ener

gy e

ffici

ency

impr

ovem

ent

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policyModel analysis on CO2 reduction policy

CO2 reductionin Japan

Model analysisAIM/EnduseAIM/Top-downAIM/MaterialConclusion

AIM, NIES

Carbon tax rate and required additional investmentsCarbon tax rate and required additional investmentsfor reducing CO2 emissions in Japanfor reducing CO2 emissions in Japan

sector Subsidized measures and devicesAdd.

investment

Industrial sector

Boiler conversion control, High performance motor, High performance industrial furnace, Waste plastic injection blast furnace, LDF with closed LDG recovery, High efficiency continuous annealing, Diffuser bleaching device, High efficiency clinker cooler, Biomass power generation

101.3

Residential sector

High efficiency air conditioner, High efficiency gas stove, Solar water heater, High efficiency gas cooking device, High efficiency television, High efficiency VTR, Latent heat recovery type water heater, High efficiency illuminator, High efficiency refrigerator, Standby electricity saving, Insulation

353.9

Commercial sector

High efficiency electric refrigerator, High efficiency air conditioner, High efficiency gas absorption heat pump, High efficiency gas boiler, Latent heat recovery type boiler, Solar water heater, High efficiency gas cooking device, High frequency inverter lighting with timer, High efficiency vending machine, Amorphous transformer, Standby electricity saving, Heat pump, Insulation

194.5

bil. JPY / year

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policyModel analysis on CO2 reduction policy--BottomBottom--up model approachup model approach--



AIM, NIES

Carbon tax rate and required additional investmentsfor reducing CO2 emissions in Japan (continued)

sector Subsidized measures and devices Add. investment

Transportation sector

High efficiency gasoline private car, High efficiency diesel car, Hybrid commercial car, High efficiency diesel bus, High efficiency small-sized truck, High efficiency standard-sized track

106.6

Forest management

Plantation, Weeding, Tree thinning, Multilayered thinning, Improvement of natural forest 195.7

Total 952.0bil. JPY / year

Tax rate to appropriate required subsidiary payments (JPY/tC) 3,433

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policyModel analysis on CO2 reduction policy--BottomBottom--up model approachup model approach--



AIM, NIES

-1.2-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.2

1995 2000 2005 20102012Year

GD

P C

hang

e[tr

i. ye

n at

199

5 pr

ice]

Tax case Tax + Subsidy case

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policyModel analysis on CO2 reduction policy--Country topCountry top--down model approachdown model approach--

GDP change compared to the reference case



19781998

Melting Himalayan Glaciers

Mountainous glaciers were retreated drastically during 20th century

Surface Air Temperature Change (1990=0 oC)CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan

Observed Impacts of Global Warming Retreat of Glaciers

Tianshan Glaciers (disappeared by 22% for the past 40 years)

Tibettian Glaciers (disappeared 4420km2 (9%) for the past 30 years)

Himalayan Glaciers (500,000 km2 to 100,000 km2 by 2035)

Heat Wave

45-49oC in May, 2003 in India (1600 death)

2-3 oC increase in July, 2004 in Japan (heat stroke patients more than 600 in Tokyo)

Typhoon

10 typhoon landed in 2004 in Japan (>200 death, 120 billion $ damage)

Increasing damage in Philippines (900 death, Nov. 2004, >500 , Dec. 2004)

Wind Storm

Increasing wind storm in Mongolia

Session1-1 Hedeo Harasawa

To avoid serious CC impacts, it is likely to be necessary of temperature raise stabilization below 2 degree compared with pre-industrialized level

IPCC TAR, 2001

22°°CC

BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

年

温室

効果

ガス

排出

量 (二

酸化

炭素

換算

：G

tC/年

)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

年

気温

上昇

(199

0年=0

.6℃

)Temperature raise(global average)

Global GHG emissions

•It is estimated that around 50% GHG reductions in 2050 are required to control temperature raise below 2C•Japan may be required more reduction (60-80%).Another country-level 2050 scenarios have been studied (UK 60%, Germany 80%, France 75%, and so on).

GHG475ppmGHG: Greenhouse gases

50% reduction

Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy]Model

•Impacts will be occurred even in 2C temp control.•Adaptation is necessary.

650550500

BaU

GHG475ppm

Tem

pera

ture

rais

e(a

bove

the

pre-

indu

stria

l lev

el)

Year Year

GH

G e

mis

sion

s (G

t-Ceq

)

475

650550500

BaU

2. How to find pathways toward Low-Carbon Societies

Back-casting from future target world

2020 20502000

Long-term target year

Release of A

IM result

Technology development,socio-economic change projected by historically trend

Forecasting

Back-casting

Normative target world

Reference future world

Service demand change

by changing social behavior, lifestyles

and institutions

Mitigation Technology

developmentRequiredPolicy

intervention and Investment

required intervention policy and measures

Envi

ronm

enta

l pre

ssur

e

Checkingyear(2015)

Checkingyear(2025)

Requ

ired

int

erve

ntion

3. We need“Trend Breaks”

to realize visions

2. We need“Visions”

1.Target may be tough

60-80% reductions

CO2 emissions＝PopActivity Energy CO2

× Pop Activity Energy× ×

＋＋＋

Changerate

CO2emissionChange rate

PopChange rate

ActivityPop

change rate

EnergyActivity

change rate

CO2

Energychange rate

＝

integral

differential

Total

Change rate＝speed

Total amount

Per capitaactivity

EnergyIntensity

CarbonIntensity

How fast GHG emissions should be reduced?

-0.5%/year 1.5%/year-2~3%/year

1%/year

Y%/year X%/year

-3~4%/year

60-80% reductions

Kaya identity


Energy Intensity（EI）Com/Tran Ser. DemCarbon Intensity（CI）Nuclear power

–3 –2 –1 0–3

–2

–1

0

Carbon intensity (%/y)

Ene

rgy

inte

nsity

(%/y

)

Japan(90–00)

France

Germany

UK60－00

Japan(90–00)

60－0060－00

50% reduction

60% reduction

70% reduction

80% reduction

90% reduction

Switchover

B2

Revival

Saving energy

Combine option

(90–00)

(90–00)

(90–00)

(Source: Kawase et al. 2005)40% reduction

30% reduction

20% reduction

Cha

nge

rate

of E

nerg

y In

tens

ity o

f GD

P (%

/yea

r)

Change rate of Carbon Intensity of Energy (%/year)

Range of MaximumEI Change experienced

for country-level

CO2 Reduction rate during 50yrs with 1%

GDP growth rateincluding CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage)

excluding CCS

How fast we have to reduce GHG emissions?

Japan scenariotoward 2030

UK, Germany, FranceToward 2050

Available reduction rate over 50yrs with 1%/yr

GDP growth rate


Global cooperation Economy Growth(eg BRICs)

Aging anddwindling birthrate

Competition/Slow life

Immigration/Migration

IndustrialStructure

Centralization/Decentralization

Big government/Small government

ICTInnovation

Technology RD&D

ConsumptionPattern

Energy Supplysystem

Financial Market

Urban System

Industrial Structure

TransportationSystem

ICT

Global trade regime

TechnologyInnovation

Urban-living/Rural-living

Global cooperation Division of Labor

Diplomacy

TaxationSystem

(Elements strongly related to GHG emissions and LCS development)

Dominant elements for GHG emissions and national development for Japan

Investigating development path toward LCS by back-casting approach

Generating possible combinations of major elements for LCS study

(Glo

bal)

(Dom

estic

)(Major elements determine

Japanese development path)

Est

imat

ing

emis

sion

per

mis

sion

with

ass

umpt

ion

of

poss

ible

glo

bal p

artic

ipat

ion

and

glob

al G

HG

targ

et

2. We need “Visions”

Vision A Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

As for LCS visions, we prepared two As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but likely future societiesdifferent but likely future societies

2. We need “Visions”Akemi Imagawa

Key concepts of two scenariosKey concepts of two scenarios


Key concepts of two scenarios (2)Key concepts of two scenarios (2)


-The “Top Runner Program” has-stimulated competition and innovation in the market,-diffused existing technologies, and -enhanced industrial competitiveness

-It created “win-win” situation and virtuous cycle.

Top Runner Program: Efficiency Improvement

(Source) JEMA (2002)

Annual electricity consumption

per volume (kWh/L)

Internal cubic volume (L)

1981 1991 2001

651.3 941.6 331.5Overall electricity consumption per

refrigerator (kWh)

Annual electricity consumption

per volume (kWh/L)

Internal cubic volume (L)

1981 1991 2001

651.3 941.6 331.5Overall electricity consumption per

refrigerator (kWh)

Fig: Energy efficiency of refrigerator

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

CO

P (C

oeffi

cien

t of p

erfo

rman

ce)

Best

Average

Worst

Historical

Projected energy efficiency improvement: Projected energy efficiency improvement: AirAir--conditioners for cooling and heatingconditioners for cooling and heating

AISTMOE

METI METI

On these two scenarios, we allocate possible On these two scenarios, we allocate possible trendtrend--breaking optionsbreaking options

3. We need “Trend Breaks” to realize visions

To analyze the feasibility and impacts of To analyze the feasibility and impacts of interventions with the modelsinterventions with the models

3. We need “Trend Breaks” to realize visions

Technology details: example of Hybrid vehicleTechnology details: example of Hybrid vehicle

Hybrid vehicleHybrid vehicle

SDB - develop intervention scenarios

Energy supply & demand

：Model

：Output of model

Macroeconomic

Stock Activity

Populationand

householdmodel

Residentialsector

Commercialsector

Transpor-tationsector

Industrialsector

Energybalance

table

Pop

ulat

ion

Labo

r

Service

Mat

eria

l sto

ck &

flow

mod

el

Energy Trns.sector En

ergy

supp

ly

mod

elEfficiency

Bui

ldin

g dy

nam

ic m

odel

Env

ironm

enta

l opt

ion

data

base

, Bot

tom

-up

engi

neer

ing

mod

el

Passenger Trns.demand modelFreight Trns.

demand model

Inte

r-sec

tor a

nd m

acro

eco

nom

ic m

odel

Household Prd.& lifestyle model

Residential energyservice model

Commercial energyservice model

Industrial production model

Stock

Preference of household

Production amount

Investment

EnergySnapshot

Tool：Data flow

Efficient useNew energy

InfrastructureEco-lifestyle

Super high efficiency air-conditioner

Stand-by energy reduction

LED lightPV on roof

Fuel cell cogeneration

Heat insulation house

Hot water supply by heat pump or

solar heating

HEMS (Home Energy

Management System)

Eco-life Navigation

COP=8for cooling

EnvironmentEducation

10-20% reduction

66% reduction oflighting demand

60% reduction of heat demand

33% reduction COP=5 for warming

3-4kW

Depict Future Image: Residential sector in 2050

10-20% reduction

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

BaU Option1 Option2

2000 2050 2050 2050

Ener

gy d

eman

d in

resi

dent

ial （

Mto

e ） cooling heating hot water cooking lighting others

32% reductions withHigh eff. insulation,HEMS/Eco-life, etc

25% reductionswith heat pump,LED lighting,standby powercontrol, etc

Energy demand in residential sector in Japan, 2050

UK, February 2005“40% House”

60% reductions

Japan, June 2005Guidance for Self-sustained Residential, 50% reductions

AIM Training WorkshopOhyama Hall, NIES, Ibaraki, Japan, Oct 16-20, 2006

AIM/Energy Snapshot toolTomoki Ehara

Structure of the model Back GroundBack Ground

Structure & Flow

Operation Operation

Demand Setting 1Demand Setting 1

Exercise 1Exercise 1

Demand Setting 2Demand Setting 2


Transformation SecTransformation Sec


AnalysisAnalysis


Contents

EBEBEBEB

CtlFactors

PWRTR_FTR_PCOMIND RES

Factor Analysis（D, E/D, C/E, C’/C）

Energy efficiency

Energy Balances

Energy consumption

Service share

Service demand Service demand

Energy efficiency

Service share

CO2 emission CO2 emission

Mixture

Own use

Loss

Electricity demand

Generation byenergy input

Efficiency

Mixture

Own use

Loss

Electricity demand

Generation byenergy input

Efficiency

Energy consumption

CO2 emission tablesCO2 emission factor

CO2 emission factor

Energy consumption

Energy consumption

: Endogenous variables: Exogenous variables

<Base year> <Target year> <Base year> <Target year>

CO270%reductions Industry Res Ser

PasTrans.

FreightTrans.

0 100 200 300 400

2000

Scenario A

Industry Residential ServicePassengerTransporation

FreightTransportation

2050

2050

Energy demandstructure

一次エネルギー供給

Coal Oil Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Hydro

Photo/Wind

- 100 200 300 400 500 600

2000

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Photo/Wind

(Mtoe)

Energy supplystructure Centralized style

Decentralized styleMicro grid

2050

2050

(Mtoe)

Demand reduction

Scenario B

Scenario A

Scenario B

Main driving forces to reduce CO2 emissions Category

Soci

ety ・reduce raw material production・decrease numbers of population/household

Activity

・Increase rate of natural gas use CI

EE

CI

・Motor-driven mobiles: Electric Battery Vehicles, Fuel Cell Battery Vehicles

EECI

・Advanced fire plant + CCS・Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

CCS

・High efficiency hair-conditioner, hot water heater, lighting system

・Fuel cell system, Photovoltaics on the roof

EE

SD

SD

CI

・Production efficiency improvement

Industry

・Use of high insulation system・Control of home energy system

Residential

・Replacement of working/living place・Public transportation

Transportation

・Nuclear energy・Use of electricity in night time, Electric storage・CO2-free hydrogen supply

Energy supply

23MtC

27MtC

16MtC

8MtC

21MtC

11MtC9MtC

30MtC

41MtC

30MtC

11MtC

amount*

* CO2 reduction amount compared with the emissions in 2000

amountServiceDemand

(SD)40

EnergyEfficiency

(EE)78

CarbonIntensity

(CI)79

CCS30

Countermeasures to achieve 70% reductions toward 2050 (A)D

emand side

Supply side

CCS: Carbon Capture Storage

Service demand improvement

Energy efficiency improvement

Fuel mix change in end-use sectors

Fuel mix change in power sector

Total

Factor decomposition of COFactor decomposition of CO22 emission reduction emission reduction in 2050, Japanin 2050, Japan

-19%

-37%

-18%

-34%

-72%

-26%

-21%

-49%

-15%

-72%

-80%-60%-40%-20%0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popu

latio

n (T

hous

and)

80-60-7940-5920-390-19

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Milli

on

W o o d e n d e ta c h e d N o n -w o o d e n d e ta c h e dW o o d e n a p a r tm e n t N o n -w o o d e n a p a r tm e n t

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Number of Dwelling by typePopulation by age

Transportation demand by mode

Bus Aviation Pass.car Maritime Railway Walking & Bicycling

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Agric

ultur

eFo

restr

yFis

hing

Coal

minin

gCr

ude o

il & N

G mi

ning

Othe

r mini

ngFo

od pr

oduc

ts &

beve

rage

sTe

xtiles

Pulp,

pape

r & pa

per p

rodu

ctsPu

blish

ing &

print

ingCh

emica

l mate

rials

Chem

ical p

rodu

ctsPe

troleu

m pr

oduc

tsCo

al pr

oduc

tsNo

n-me

tallic

mine

ral

Pig i

ron &

crud

e stee

lOt

her s

teel p

rodu

ctsNo

n-fer

rous

meta

lFa

brica

ted m

etal p

rodu

ctsMa

chine

ryEl

ec.m

achin

e, eq

uip. &

supp

lies

Tran

spor

t equ

ipmen

tPr

ecisi

on in

strum

ents

Othe

r man

ufactu

ring

Cons

tructi

onTh

erma

l pow

er pl

ant

Non-

therm

al po

wer p

lant

Town

gas

Wate

r sup

plyW

holes

ale &

retai

l trad

eFin

ance

& in

sura

nce

Real

estat

eRa

ilway

tran

spor

tRo

ad tr

ansp

ort

Wate

r tra

nspo

rtAi

r tra

nspo

rtOt

her t

rans

port

Comm

unica

tions

Publi

c ser

vice a

ctivit

iesOt

her s

ervic

e acti

vities

<Sectors>

Tri.

yen

at 2

000

pric

e

2000 2050 A 2050 B

Economic impact analysis using CGE model

Estimated automotive CO2 emissions by different regions in Japan

Moriguchi & Matsuhashi, 2005

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Accumulated population in Japan[million]

Auto

motive

CO

2 p

er

cap

ita[

t-CO

2/ye

ar]

Metropolitan region Outlying region

Citie

s w

ith a

pop.

of

0.5

mill

ion a

nd

above

Citie

s w

ith a

pop.

of

0.3

mill

ion a

nd

above

Citie

s w

ith a

pop.

of

0.1

mill

ion a

nd

above

Citie

s w

ith a

pop.

of

less

than

0.1

mill

ion

Citie

s w

ith a

pop.

of

0.5

mill

ion a

nd

above

Citie

s w

ith a

pop.

of

0.3

mill

ion a

nd

above

Citie

s w

ith a

pop.

of

0.1

mill

ion a

nd

above

Citie

s w

ith a

pop.

of

less

than

0.1

mill

ion

Counties

of

urb

an lan

d use

Counties

Counties

of

plai

n f

arm

lan

d

Counties

of

mid

land

farm

lan

d

Counties

of

mounta

in f

arm

lan

d

Maj

or

citie

s

Shiga Prefecture VisionsShiga Prefecture Visions

http://www.pref.shiga.jp/koho/2006-01/03.html

Shiga Pref.

Location of Shiga Prefecture

http://map.yahoo.co.jp/address/imap/japan.map

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Case A

2000 20301990

Emission Factor of Electricity

Fuel Switch

Compact City- Halve trip distances

TechnologicalInnovation

Lifestyle

BaU(+20%)

1．Both supply & demand measures necessary to reduce CO2 emission by 30%2．Substantial contribution of compact city

-30%

Supply

Demand

CO2 Emission Transitions (1990 level=100)

Renewable Energy

Shimada (2006)

＋＋＋CO2emission

Change ratePop

Change rate

ActivityPop

change rate

EnergyActivity

change rate

CO2

Energychange rate

＝

Per capitaactivity

EnergyIntensity

CarbonIntensity

-0.5%/year 1.5%/year

How can we reduce GHG emissions?

-2~3%/year

1%/year

Y%/year X%/year

-3~4%/year

Energy EfficiencyEnergy SavingEco-industryEnv. sound transpirationCompact city

Enhance/Keep service level,use less energy

Fuel switchingRenewablesNuclearCCSHydrogen/Fuel cell

Use less GHG intensive fuel

Green GDPSD indexLifestyle change

Change of growth pattern

3. We need global participation to realize low-carbon societies

Scenarios from 8 countries

NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side eventon December 3rd in Montreal

Global Challenges Toward Global Challenges Toward LowLow--Carbon Economy Carbon Economy (LCE)(LCE)

-Focus on Country-Specific Scenario Analysis-

JapanLow Carbon

Society 2050

US

Canada

UK

France

China

India

W orld

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

CO

2 per

cap

ita e

mis

sion

s (t-C

/cap

)

GermanyMETI, Japan2030 scenario

Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target

Target for Low Carbon SocietyIB1

IA2

Japan 2050 scenario

US: delay for tech development, global warming business

EU: Initiatives toward LCSJapan: Need long-term vision

Developing countries: earlierguidance toward LCS is key

$200/t-C scenario

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side eventGlobal Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

JapanJapan––UK Joint Research ProjectUK Joint Research ProjectDeveloping visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS) Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)

through sustainable developmentthrough sustainable development

Organized by Organized by MoEJMoEJ, , DefraDefra, NIES, UKERC, , NIES, UKERC, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Japan and UK promote studies toward achieving a Low Carbon Society (LCS) by 2050 in collaboration, encourage other countries to engage in LCS studies, and jointly hold series of international workshops. The first workshop was held in June 2006 in Tokyo involving researchers and governmental officials from about 20 countries, and international organizations.

Participants from 19 countries;Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China)Africa: South Africa, NigeriaEurope: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, RussiaLatin America: Brazil, Mexico, ChileNorth America: US, Canada

A second workshop will be held in UK, 2007.

11stst workshop on Japan workshop on Japan –– UK Joint Research ProjectUK Joint Research ProjectDeveloping visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)

through sustainable development on June 2006through sustainable development on June 2006

““Aligning sustainable development & climate Aligning sustainable development & climate change actions can reduce the burden and change actions can reduce the burden and facilitate the transition to stabilization. LCS is facilitate the transition to stabilization. LCS is technologically and economically feasible.technologically and economically feasible.””

Economy-environment trade-off can be circumvented with innovative strategies and by exploiting co-benefits

Environmental Quality

National Environment Goals

Innovation strategiesExploiting co-benefits

SustainableSustainableDevelopmentDevelopment

Econ

omic

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ndi

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National Economic Targets

1) Aligning climate change and sustainable development 1) Aligning climate change and sustainable development actions will facilitate costactions will facilitate cost--effective transition to effective transition to stabilization of climate change.stabilization of climate change.2) A variety of tools (e.g. models) & methods (e.g. 2) A variety of tools (e.g. models) & methods (e.g. backcasting, scenarios) are required to delineate options backcasting, scenarios) are required to delineate options for costfor cost--effective transition to low carbon pathwayseffective transition to low carbon pathways3) Cooperation for LCS involves a long3) Cooperation for LCS involves a long--term policy term policy framework, a wider range of issues and actors (domestic framework, a wider range of issues and actors (domestic & international) and a comprehensive range of & international) and a comprehensive range of technologies and policy measures. Political vision and technologies and policy measures. Political vision and leadership are vital to generate signals, prompt activities leadership are vital to generate signals, prompt activities and deploy resources to achieve LCS goals.and deploy resources to achieve LCS goals.

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Japan Low Carbon Societies (LCS) Scenarios Study toward 2050

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