January 26, 2009
32
January 26, 2009 The Economy in 2009 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University Design Build Institute of America
description
Design Build Institute of America. The Economy in 2009 and Beyond. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University. January 26, 2009. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of January 26, 2009
January 26, 2009
The Economy in 2009 and Beyond
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University
Design Build Institute of America
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Global Insight
Forecast > > > > > > > > > > >
GDP Percent Change(Real Dollars)%
CURRENT CONDITIONS
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Non-Mfg
Mfg
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US
THOUSANDS
Dec =- 2.81 Mil
Source: BLS Establishment Survey
U.S. Unemployment Rate
%
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Dec = 7.2 %
Housing Trends:New & Existing Home Sales
Existing(left scale)
New
(Rt Scale)
(000s) (000s)
Consumer Confidence
100
Present Situation
Expectations
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays
%
Source: Global Insight, January 2008, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
The Washington Economy
US GDP and Washington GRP
%
Washington GRP
US GDP
U.S.Washington Area
GRP Change
3/01 - 11/01 (8) 2.5 %
7/90 - 3/91 (8) 0.2 %
7/81 - 11/82 (16) 3.1 %
1/80 - 7/80 (6) 2.3 %
U.S and Washington Area Recent Recessions
2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
LocalBusiness 38.9%
Non-LocalBusiness 11.8 %
Federal 33.3%
Procurement 15.4%
Assn 2.2% Hosp. 2.0%
Int’l 4.8%
Other 7.0%
Other Federal 17.9 %
Other: Health/Education, Media, Lobbyists
Annual Change in Jobs1991 – 2007
Washington Metro
-53
-8
36 3825
4461
7592
117
41
10
5671
6350
29
-80-60-40-20
020406080
100120140
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Thousands
Avg =46,600
Annual Job ChangeWashington Metro Area
10
56
71
63
50
3529
26 26 2721
128
1825 27
2125 27
2228 27 27
4045
38 3631
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Ja
nF
eb
Ma
rA
pr
Ma
yJ
un
Ju
lA
ug
Se
pO
ct
No
vD
ec
Ja
nF
eb
Ma
rA
pr
Ma
yJ
un
Ju
lA
ug
Se
pO
ct
No
v
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Month-over-the-Year 2007 2008
000s
46.6
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Nov. 07– Nov. 08
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100Thousands
Washington + 31,100
Ranked by Total Jobs
Percent Change in Jobs By Sector U.S and Washington MSA
Last 12 Months
Source: BLS and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Unemployment Rate
%
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
U.S.
Washington
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
November 2008
0123456789
10%
U.S.6.5
Data not seasonally adjustedSource: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4.4
Sales and Total Active ListingsWashington MSA, December Each Year
Listings
Sales
1000s
Units Sold Percent ChangeBy Subregion
All Housing Types%
NVA
MSA
DC
SMD
2007 2008
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Housing Price Index TrendsU.S. and Washington Metro Area
Both Series Indexed to 1976 = 100
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
ConformingLoans Only
Average Sales Price All Housing TypesWashington Metro
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
$
+ 8.0 %/year
Area 2007 Price 2008 Price Change % Change
Dist. Of Columbia $537,400 $543,500 + $6,100 + 1.1 %
Arlington $559,000 $539,300 - $19,700 - 3.5 %
Alexandria $502,900 $471,200 - $31,700 - 6.3 %
Montgomery $550,200 $503,900 - $46,300 - 8.4 %
Prince George’s $331,100 $290,200 - $40,900 - 12.4 %
Fairfax $542,000 $445,900 - $96,100 - 17.7 %
Loudoun $516,800 $389,000 - $127,800 - 24.7 %
Prince William $395,000 $257,900 - $137,100 - 34.7 %
MD SUBURBS $435,800 $400,400 - $35,400 - 8.1 %
VA SUBURBS $488,300 $373,200 - $115,100 - 23.6 %
METRO AREA $468,700 $394,700 - $74,000 - 15.8 %
Annual Price Changes by Jurisdiction
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Metro Comparisons Mortgage Foreclosure Rates
Q3 - 2008Foreclosures /10,000 Owner-Occupied Units
Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Mortgage Foreclosure Ratesby County – Jan 08 & Jan 09
Foreclosures /10,000 units
Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Jan 2008 Jan 2009
Outlook
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2013Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)%
DCSMMSA
NV
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
D.C.D.C. 7.27.2 6.6 6.6 5.55.5 6.06.0 6.46.4 7.07.0 6.56.5
Sub. MDSub. MD 5.85.8 6.56.5 6.06.0 10.710.7 12.512.5 14.314.3 16.416.4
No. VANo. VA 15.5 12.5 12.2 19.8 23.5 26.8 31.1
REGION 28.528.5 25.625.6 23.723.7 36.536.5 42.442.4 48.148.1 54.054.0
Average Annual Change 1990-2007 = 46,600
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2012
Washington
U.S.
www.cra-gmu.org
