Jana Poljak Zagreb, 22 May 2012 Preparation of National Reform Programmes in view of Europe 2020...
-
Upload
ashlynn-wilkerson -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
2
Transcript of Jana Poljak Zagreb, 22 May 2012 Preparation of National Reform Programmes in view of Europe 2020...
Jana Poljak
Zagreb, 22 May 2012
Preparation of National Reform Programmes in view of Europe 2020
Strategy and enhanced macroeconomic surveillance
Slovenian experience
3
Beginnings of common policy coordination
• Treaty of Maastricht. White paper on Growth, Competitiveness and Employment – first attempt on common European structural policy coordination;
• Employment Guidelines – National action Plans, Joint employment Report, Specific Recommendations;
• Lisbon Strategy – Integrated Guidelines, common goals for the decade, open method of coordination, country specific recommendations, national reform programmes;
• Europe 2020 – European semester, reinforced coordination, combined budgetary and structural policy planning, national targets, national reform programmes and stability programmes prepared together, additional instrument for preventive surveillance of the economic and fiscal policies of its member states.
Greater transparency and a higher concentration of information going forward give reason to hope that the peripheral states will have a better chance of demonstrating their vigor in consolidating their finances => fiscal pact.
Europe 2020
3 interlinked priorities:
1.) Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation
2.) Sustainable growth: promoting a more efficient, greener and more competitive economy
3.) Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion
3
5 headline targets:
• 75 % employment rate (% of population aged 20-64 years)
• 3% investment in R&D (% of EU’s GDP)
• “20/20/20” climate/energy targets met
• Less than 10% school drop-out rates and at least 40% of the population aged 30-34 having completed tertiary or equivalent education;
• Lifting at least 20 million people out of the risk of poverty and - exclusion
EU tools in support of Europe 2020
Single market relaunch
Trade and external policies
EU financial support
EU levers for growth and jobs
EU flagship initiatives
EU monitoring and guidance
Macro, thematicand fiscal
surveillance
Annual Growth Survey
Annual policy
guidance
Innovation Union
New Skills and Jobs
Digital Agenda
Youth on the Move
New Industrial
Policy
Platform against Poverty
ResourceEfficiency
Reinforced Governance
Fiscal surveillance
Macro-economicsurveillance
Thematic surveillance
Europe 2020 Integrated Guidelines (IG)
Europe 2020 five headline targets
Stability and Growth Pact
National Reform
Programmes
Stability and Convergence Programmes
Commission’s Annual Growth Survey EU annual policy guidance and recommendations
EU flagship initiatives and levers
National level
EU level
Council of Ministers
European Commission
European Parliament
European Council
Annual economic & social summit
January March AprilFebruary May June July
Submission of National Reform Programmes (NRPs) & Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs)
Autumn:Peer review at EU level
Autumn:Decisions at national
level
Debate & orientations
Endorsement of guidance
Finalisation & adoption of guidance
Member States
Annual Growth Survey
Policy guidance including possible recommendations
Debate & orientations
European economic semester
8
MACRO MICRO
A. EU 2020
GOALS
INTEGRATED
GUIDELINES
FLAGSHIP INITIATIVES
B.ANNUAL GROWTH SURVEY - 2011
DRIVERS OF GROWTH and ACTIONS
ANNUAL GROWTH SURVEY - 2012 PRIORITIES
C. STABILITY PROGRAMME
D. NATIONAL REFORM PROGRAMME
E. Euro plus pact
Smart Growth Inclusive Growth Sustainable Growth
1. 3% of GDP for R&D expenditure 2. 40% share of population aged 30–34 with
completed tertiary education 3. Share of early school-leavers in primary and
secondary education must remain at 5.1%
1. 75% employment rate for people aged 20–64 2. Reducing the number of persons at risk of poverty
and/or social exclusion from 361,000 to 320,000
1. "20-20-20" climate and energy targets
1. Implementing a rigorous fiscal consolidation
2. Correcting macro economic imbalances
3. Ensuring stability of the financial sector
Macro-economic pre-requisites for growth
Mobilising labour markets, creating job opportunities
Frontloading growth-enhancing measures
4. Making work more attractive
5. Reforming pensions systems
7. Balancing security and flexibility
6. Getting the unemployed back to work
8. Tapping the potential of the Single Market
9. Attracting private capital to finance growth
10. Creating cost-effective access to energy
Innovation Union
Youth on the move
Digital Agenda for Europe
Resource Efficient Europe
An Industrial Policy for the Globalisation Era European Platform against Poverty
New Skills for New Jobs
1. Ensuring the quality and the sustainability of public finances
3. Reducing imbalances within the euro area
4. Optimising support for R&D and innovation, knowledge triangle
5. Improving resource efficiency and reducing greenhouse gases
7. Increasing labour market participation, reducing structural unemployment
MACROECONOMIC SURVEILLANCE: - Basic assumptions and projections of actual and
potential growth in the period 2011-2014 - Reference to the PS in the area of fiscal rules and fiscal consolidation - Indication of the planned structural measures and their impact on growth
THEMATIC COORDINATION 2011: - National targets to achieve five main objectives EU2020 - Bottlenecks to growth - Indication of specific measures to achieve these goals and overcome bottlenecks
- Objectives and assumptions of economic policies - Economic trends and forecasts economic growth - Deficit and debt - Quality and sustainability of public finances
EU LE
VEL
NA
TION
AL LE
VEL
2. Addressing macroeconomic imbalances
6. Improving the business environment, and modernising the industrial base
8. Developing a skilled workforce responding to labour market needs and promoting lifelong learning
9. Improving the quality and performance of education and training systems
10. Promoting social inclusion and combating poverty
Pursuing differentiated growth-friendly fiscal consolidation
Restoring normal lending to the economy
Promoting growth and competitiveness for today and tomorrow
Tackling unemployment and social consequences of the crisis
Modernising public administration
CONTENT OF NRP 2012: - reflect the general guidance identified in the Annual Growth Survey - report on the measures implemented and planned to address the Country Specific
Recommendations - report on the measures implemented and planned to achieve the national targets
contributing to the EU headline targets - report on the measures implemented and planned to fulfill the Euro Plus Pact commitments
EURO
PLU
S PA
CT
CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES
FOSTERING EMPLOYMENT FOSTERING COMPETITIVENESS REINFORCING FINANCIAL STABILITY
9
National policy coordination – Slovenia
• Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development • Independent Office – reports to the Government • Programe prepared on the basis of Slovenian Development Strategy 2006-2013
2005 National Reform Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals
• Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development • A comprehensive document – description of current situation and ongoing processes
2006 Implementation Report
2007 Implementation Report
• Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development • continuation of current form, no connection to finance, lacks indicators (124 pages)
2008 Lisbon 2.1
Implementation Report and new Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals
• Prepared by Government Office for Development• short term anti-crisis measures• Structural measures• Tables: review and evaluation of structural measures (18 pages + annex)
2009
Implementation Report and new Programme for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals
• Prepared by Government Office for Growth and European affairs• Part of a new national policy coordination• Measures include financial aspect, indicators and target values• 42 pages + Annex
2010 EU2020
2011
National Reform Programme
• Prepared by Ministry of Finance• Supported by budget• Prepared together with stability Programme• Economic and social partners consensus
2012
National Reform Programme
10
NRP 2011 evaluation
11
Reform Implementation Evaluation
13
Guidelines for National Reform Programmes
GENERAL RULES
NRP should:• Reflect the general guidance identified annually
in the Annual Growth Survey• Report on measures implemented and planned
to address Country-Specific Recommendations• Report on measures implemented and planned
to achieve the national targets contributing to EU headline targets
• Report on measures to fulfill the Euro Plus Pact commitments
• Include a macroeconomic scenario in line with that in the SCPs
For the planed measures:- it should be specified how they will be
implemented, by when, by whom and with what budgetary consequences
- they should be concrete enough to allow the Commission to asses their expected impact,
- they should be prioritised (frontloading)
TRANSPARENCY
COMPARABILITY
INVOLVEMENT OF CONCERNED PARTIES
EMPHASIS ON IMPLEMENTATION
ANNUAL UPDATE
EUROPEAN SEMESTER - DEADLINE
14
Slovenia‘s strategic documentsSlovenia's Development Strategy 2014-2020
Slovenian Exit Strategy (until 2013) and necessary structural changes
Programme of Development Priorities and Investments
Programme of Development Priorities and Investments
National Reform Programme
National Reform Programme Stability
Programme
Stability Programme
State and municipial budgets, Funds of Health Insurance Institute and Pension and Disability Insurance Institute
State and municipial budgets, Funds of Health Insurance Institute and Pension and Disability Insurance Institute
Report on the Efficiency of Development Policies
Report on the Efficiency of Development Policies
Development Report
Development Report
Forecast of Economic Trends
Forecast of Economic Trends
Competitiveness Report Competitiveness Report
Stability and Growth Pact
EU 2020EU 2020
Expected changes in 2012
2011
15
Preparation Process
First draft:
Ministry of Finance
Interministerial coordination
Second draft: Ministry of Finance
Government Board for Economic Issues
Presented to the Social Partners
Adopted on Government session
Presented to the Parliament
NRP
Sent to the European Commission
16
Content NRP 2012-2013
1. Macroeconomic measures for fiscal stability
2. Agenda of reforms and measures
Smart growth: education, R&D, ICT, industry, administrative burdens
Inclusive growth; employment, social protection
Sustainable growth: transport, environment, agriculture
3. Simulation of effects of specific measures using the DSGE model
4. Public debate
Annex 1: Standard table for the assessment of CSRs and macro-structural reform in the NRPs
Annex 2: Report on measures to meet EU 2020 targets and other commitments