Jan 2017 — Tight Supply Reigns: Toronto real estate charts
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Transcript of Jan 2017 — Tight Supply Reigns: Toronto real estate charts
Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
Jan
2017
Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing due to the 416 or the 905? Is it due to houses or condos? The charts that
follow will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My
focus is the 416, so I pull that out of TREB’s numbers.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses and condos, because you are probably more interested in one than the other, and lumping them together
hides a lot of information. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give
you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”
$260K YoY
+27.1%
$53K MoM
+4.6%
Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”
- House prices have increased in January over December for 6 years in a row
- Supply shortage continues, with active
listings 42% YoY in Jan, hitting a record
low for the month- Transactions remained at normal levels
so the lower supply let to months of
inventory (MOI) setting a record low for the month
- Houses are selling in an average of 7
days less than last year
January 2017: Tight Supply Reigns
⌂ $63K YoY
+15.0%
$9K MoM
+1.9%
- Condo sale transactions were at an all-time high last year (23.7K), and January
started off 26% over last year
- Listings are way down ( 56% from last
year’s level)
- More people looking with less condos to
look at led to 17 days less on market and months of inventory sitting at about 1/3 of
last year’s level
Detached $1,3376K / Semi $903K / Row $836K
Jan vs. ‘16: $260K (27.1%)
Jan vs. ‘12: $531K (77%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 12.2%
- Clear year-over-year growth is evident each year
- average price has grown $22K a month in last 12 mos.
- #FOMO
416 Average Sold Price(Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $471K / Condo Townhouse $595K
Jan vs. '16: $63K (15.0%)
Jan vs. '12: $142K (41%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 7.1%
- average price has grown $5K a month in last 12 mos.
958
1,1101,074
1,156 1,170 1,157
1,104 1,096
1,183 1,1871,222
1,165
1,218
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474483
476485
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Residential Sales Volume(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '16: 6.0%
YTD vs. '16: 6.0% (vs. Prior 5 years: 3.3%)
- Only 22 less sales than the 5 year average of 654
- With a more finite supply, House transactions don’t
vary much from year to year (the prior 5 years stayed
within 4% of the average 5 year volume
Jan vs. '16: 26.0%
YTD vs. '16: 26.0% (vs. Prior 5 years: 40.5%)
- 363 more Condo sales than the 5 year average
indicates a hot start
- Resale Condo supply keeps growing as new units are
built; they’re an option for those priced out of houses
672
1,162
1,513
1,889
2,102 2,066
1,320
1,162
1,508 1,534 1,396
716
632
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1,000
1,609
2,066
2,297
2,468 2,472
2,134 2,217
2,039 2,143
1,941
1,352 1260
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Active Listings(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '16: 42%
YTD vs. '16: 42% (vs. Prior 5 years: 52%)
- Supply remains extremely low
- Dec was the first time (since stats started in Jan ‘96)
with <1000 active listings. Now we’ve had 2 months in
row, and 10 months in a row with fewer than 70% of
the prior year’s listing.
Jan vs. '16: 56%
YTD vs. '16: 56% (vs. Prior 5 years: 58%)
- Condo supply even worse than Houses
- Jan is the second month in a row with less than half of
the prior year’s listings, and there have been 5 months
in a row below 60% of the prior year’s listings.
1,168 1,300 1,392 1,452 1,633
1,456 1,283
1,119
1,629 1,612 1,307
599 6790
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3,491 3,718
4,028 4,177 4,249
4,041
3,608
3,134 3,111
2,791
2,203
1,397 1529
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Months Of Inventory(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Jan vs. '16: 0.7 months (38%)
Jan vs. Prior 5 years: 1.0 months (496%)
- A “balanced market” is 5-7 months of inventory
- Toronto has been in a “seller’s market” for at least 20
years and the trend continues to get more extreme
- Jan marks 12th consecutive new monthly record low
Jan vs. '16: 2.3 months (65%)
Jan vs. Prior 5 years: 2.9 months (70%)
- Condo MOI has been below 2.0 months for 11
consecutive months, the longest time it has remained
below 2.0, and first time under since Jan ’09
- Closest Condo and House MOI has been since Sep ‘09
3.5
2.3
1.91.8 1.7 1.6 1.7
1.4 1.51.3
1.1 1.01.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1.7
1.10.9
0.8 0.8 0.71.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8
1.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Average Days On Market(Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '16: 6.5 days (27%)
Jan vs. Prior 5 years: 7.5 days (29%)
- New record low for January (prior was 23 in 2015)
- With an extreme seller’s market and a low inventory
of listings, houses that are on the market are being
snapped up quickly.
Jan vs. '16: 17.0 days (44%)
Jan vs. Prior 5 years: 18.7 days (46%)
- New record low for January (prior was 26 in 2010)
- More buyers looking at less listings is speeding up the
sales of condos too, with condos selling in only 56% of
the time it took last year
24
15 13
11 12 10
13 15
12 12 14
18 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
39
31
24 23 22 22 23
24 23
21 21
23 22
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Annual Price Increases(December vs. prior December average price, and current month compared to December 2016)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $48K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.0%.
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $17K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 4.5%.
19 46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57 40
22 33
117
54
105
210
53
2 19 12 20 12 3
19 7 11
42
(34)
60
20 4
(6)
29 17 22
65
9
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17YTD
$000s $ IncreasesHouses Condos
7%
17%
(3%)
9% 11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11%7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
22%
6%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17YTD
% IncreasesHouses Condos
14.4
21.6
6.8
19.0
10.3
4.15.3
5.3
7.8
3.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
last 24months
last 12months
last 9months
last 6months
last 3months
$000s
Pace of price growth(30 day rate)
⌂Last 3 months $10,000 $3,500
Last 6 months $18,700 $7,700
Last 9 months $10,100 $5,200
Last 12 months $21,300 $5,200
Last 24 months $14,200 $4,000
⌂
Price growth per month:
Houses – average prices are up $260K over 12 months ago.
Prices generally slow down in December and January, but the last 3 months are still above the 10 year average of a
$5.9K/month increase.
Condos – average prices are up $63K over 12 months ago.
The last 24 months have all been ahead of the 5 year ($1,800/month) and 10 year ($2,100/month) average monthly
increases
416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 54% / Houses 45%
5 years ago: Condos 52% / Houses 47%
10 years ago: Condos 45% / Houses 53%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume,
in 2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume.
Detached72%
Semi20%
Row7%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Houses41%
Condos58%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment89%
Townhouse11%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
Having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music
communities, Scott combines his analytical skills and business savvy with his hometown
knowledge and passion to help artists and professionals alike find their next
home. Scott works with the venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc.
brokerage on Queen St. West.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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