Fish to 2030 and Some Other Perspectives

James L. Anderson Advisor for Oceans, Fisheries and AquacultureLead of the Global Program for FisheriesThe World Bank

Seafood Investor ForumMay 20, 2014Roosevelt Hotel, New York, NY

Fish to 2030 – Why?Nearly 40 percent of global fish harvest is exportedOver $110 billion in trade and growingFish trade is more than all other meats combinedTwo-thirds of seafood trade (in value) is from developing to

developed countriesFish trade is more than all other meats combined; more

than coffeeFisheries and aquaculture is an efficient animal protein

producing sectorSustainable food production from fisheries and aquaculture

is essential in the face of population growth

Fish to 2030 ProjectCollaboration: The World Bank, International Food

Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas, and FAO

Projection of global supply and demand for fish and fish meal & oil using IFPRI’s IMPACT Model

Capture and aquaculture supply modeledModel:

o Country groups: 115o Seafood groups: 16

Hundreds of species traded – more than 30 shrimp species alone

It is Dynamic: Aquaculture –new technologies, new species,

new playersDemand is shiftingLarge emerging consumers – ChinaGovernance of capture fisheries is weak and

uncertainData are poor!!!

Fish sector is dynamic and complex(Modeling is challenging)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

Mill

ion

MT Total (Data)

Total (Model)

Capture (Data)

Capture (Model)

Aquaculture (Data)

Aquaculture (Model)

Global fish production:Data and projections (1984-2030)

Projected Total Fish Supply

90.463.6

2011 (Data)

Capture Aquaculture

Total Harvest154.0 Million Tons

93.4 95.7

2030 (Model)

Capture Aquaculture

Total Harvest189.1 Million

Tons

Aquaculture Growth2030 (Model)

• Approx. 50% of total harvest• Approx. 62% of fish of human seafood

consumption• Aquaculture 2010-2030 – 62% in 20 yrs• Total supply (capture + aquaculture) 2010-

2030 – 24% in 20 yrs

Aquaculture Supply Growth: SpeciesMore than 90% increase from 2010 to 2030

TilapiaShrimp

40-90% increase from 2010 to 2030MolluscsSalmonCarpPangasius/catfish CrustaceansOther freshwater and diadromous species

Total Fish Supply Growth: RegionsMore than 60% increase from 2010 to 2030

India30-60% increase from 2010 to 2030

Southeast AsiaOther South AsiaChina

ECALAC

CHNSEA

IND

AFR

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

20102030

Aquaculture Supply Growth: RegionsMore than 100% increase from 2010 to 2030

IndiaLatin America and CaribbeanSoutheast Asia

50-100% increase from 2010 to 2030South Asia (excl. India)Middle East and North AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

Less than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030Everywhere else

Consumption Growth: RegionsMore than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030

South Asia (excl. India)30-50% increase from 2010 to 2030

IndiaSoutheast AsiaNorth AmericaMiddle East and North AfricaChinaSub-Saharan Africa

Decline from 2010 to 2030Japan

0102030405060

20102030

Key Conclusions from 2030 studyExpectations for 2030:1. Aquaculture will produce 2/3 of food fish2. China will consume nearly 40% of seafood3. Production of tilapia, shrimp, will nearly

double from 2010 to 20304. Largest tonnage gains will be in mollusks,

carps 5. Aquaculture will grow fastest in India, Latin

America, and Southeast Asia

Some Additional Perspectives

China: International Seafood Trade (1984-2011)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Export QuantityImport Quantity

(Th

ou

san

d m

etr

ic t

on

s)

China: #1 Seafood Exporter #1 Seafood ImporterSource: FishStat, FAO 2014

China: International Seafood Trade (1984-2011)

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

Export ValueImport Value

China: #1 Seafood Exporter #3 Seafood Importer(US and Japan are #1 & #2)

Source: FishStat, FAO 2014

China – Things to considerIs their economic growth sustainable?

The corruption crack down and high value seafood demand

Food Safety

Aquaculture

Big Risk…..DISEASE …ISA salmon… EMS shrimp

Systems? Species? Where?... Low cost producers generally win ... Unless create market niches are created, like varietal wines

US Seafood Consumption Continues to Concentrate

in Fewer Species and Per Capita Consumption is Declining

Edible kg per Capita 1987 2010 % change

1 Tuna 1.59 Shrimp 1.72 66 2 Shrimp 1.04 Tuna 1.09 -32 3 Cod 0.76 Salmon 0.92 358 4 AK Pollock 0.40 Tilapia 0.67 NA 5 Flatfish 0.33 Catfish/Pangasius 0.56 106 6 Clams 0.30 AK Pollock 0.53 32 7 Catfish 0.27 Crab 0.24 58 8 Salmon 0.20 Cod 0.24 -69 9 Crab 0.15 Clams 0.16 -48

10 Scallops 0.15 Other 2.16 Other 0.51 -61 Total 7.35 Total 6.62 -10

Source: NFI (2013).

71% 92%

56% 75%

Fisheries Reform

Great investment opportunity to stop losses, cut waste and innovate in marketing

BUT .... There to be the creation of new ways to make monetize natural fisheries assets ... Blue bonds?, public private partnership?, creating new markets – futures? options?... We need create thinking.

Thank Youjanderson8@worldbank.org

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/18882045/fish-2030-prospects-fisheries-aquaculture