James Fiske – Head of the Mott MacDonald Economics Research Unit

The future of Carbon: The tools and skills that will be required by the next generation

Presentation Content

• Introduction

• Drivers

• Terminology

• Our Tools: CapIT

• Our Tools: LifeCYCLE

• Benefits and differentiators

Introduction

• We are under pressure to evaluate and reduce carbon emissions

• We are under pressure to reduce costs

• Currently two different teams measure carbon and cost

• Availability and understanding data

Drivers - environmental

• Climate change and global warming has been attributed to increased levels of carbon and greenhouse gas emissions

• Association of British Insurers predicts an 8%, 14% and 25% increase respectively for inland flooding for a 2, 4 and 6 centigrade increase in temperature

• The Thames barrier was raised on average three times a year until 2001, a year in which it was raised 15 times. By 2030, the environment agency expect that it will need to be raised 30 times per year

Drivers - environmental

• As well as the more obvious strain on existing infrastructure and flood defences, climate change is expected to impact on health and workforce productivity to name but two areas

• Increased temperatures are also expected to increase building subsidence, water shortages, dangers of wildfires, and major agricultural and ecological implications

• Believe the research or not but the ‘do nothing’ option is not supportable – nor is it reversible

• If we act now we can still make a difference

Drivers – energy availability

• Recent Times headlines:

– “demand for energy could outstrip supply by almost one quarter within eight years”

– “Britain faces blackouts within ten years as power stations go out of service”

– “In 2005, the UK became a net importer of gas. By 2010, imports could account for 40 per cent of British gas needs; by 2020, 80 per cent to 90 per cent”

• With a continual growing demand outstripping supply, prices will continue to rise

Drivers – current legislation

Legislation in place NOW:

• Climate Change Act 2008

• CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme

• The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan

• Part L Building Regs

• Government policy statements set targets for Zero carbon homes, schools and other non domestic buildings

Drivers – future legislation

Legislation for the future:

• Current legislation will not address the levels of reduction that we have signed up to deliver (26% by 2020, 80% by 2050)

• By 2019, embodied carbon should make up 100% of a buildings carbon footprint

• A recent government report recommends the inclusion of whole life carbon appraisals into the Treasury’s Green Book

• CEN TC350

Drivers – financial

• The ‘cost’ of carbon in the future is going to be much higher as legislation tightens and trading becomes more important

• What you are ‘building’ now sets what you will be subjected to in the future.

• The initial footprint is only a small part of the totals over the life e.g. 1:5:200

• Grants and feed in tariffs for renewable technologies

• Tax relief through higher capital allowances for renewables

• CRC charges are currently small, but associated PR damage may be more significant to the bottom line

Terminology

Boundaries:

• Embodied / direct CO2 emissions

• Cradle to gate / Cradle to site / Cradle to grave / Cradle to Cradle?

Calculation Considerations:

• Quantify and calculate weight of each material used

• Get CO2 data for construction products

• Don’t forget to quantify the waste and its disposal

• Calculate direct carbon from transporting materials from gate to site

• Quantify direct emissions from running any Plant

• What about Labour?

Terminology

Terminology(Defined by BS ISO 15686-5)

Whole Life Cost (WLC)

Non-Construction Costs

Life Cycle Cost(LCC)

Income Externalities

Construction End of LifeOccupancyOperationMaintenance

Our Tools

• Capital cost and CO2 online estimating system

• Includes buildings and civils data

• Allows users to view and change build-ups from library

• Allows users to add their own data – securely

• Allows users to export data

• Report as cost, CO2 or both

• Subscription based licences

– For buildings database = £350/user/annum

– For civil engineering database = £350/user/annum

– For both = £600/user/annum

• Discounts for multiple user licences

– For 1- 5 = 0% discount

– For 6-10 = 20% discount

– For 11-20 = 30% discount

– For 20+ = 40% discount

Our Tools:

• Internet based model that calculates Capital and LCC for Buildings

• Quantifies direct and indirect carbon for capital works, maintenance and occupancy

• Calculates resource requirements and waste, for each year of the buildings life

• Reports to compare different building designs

• Delivered as part of MM service

Our Tools:

Benefits and Differentiators

• Efficiencies and speed

– Measure once, output Cost and Carbon

• Accuracy

• Auditability

• A fast start (until own data is available)

• Future-proofing for legislation

• All to the highest International Standards

www.franklinandrews.com