The Human Face of Climate ChangeExploring the impact of climate change on humans and societies

Teton County LibraryJackson Hole, Wyoming

17 September 2010

Edward Cameronedwardcameron@yahoo.com

How does climate change interact with human and social systems?

Why is this instrumentally as well as intrinsically important?

What can we do to shape effective and equitable responses to this global crisis?

Climate Change: The basics

Unequivocal means that climate change is real and undeniable

Accelerating means that the effect is getting worse

“Very Likely” Anthropogenic means a probability of more than 90% that it is human induced and not the result of natural causes

Climate Change: The impacts

Global mean temperature rises

Risks to unique and threatened systems

Risks of extreme weather events

Changes in water patterns

Sea-level rises

Risks of large-scale singularities

Vulnerability to climate change

Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation in which a system is EXPOSED, its SENSITIVITY, and its ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (IPCC 2007a, p21)

Who are vulnerable?

๏ Women

๏ Indigenous Peoples

๏ The urban poor

๏ Inhabitants of small island states

๏ Vulnerability is not a uniform taxonomy

Poverty, hunger and increased water scarcity

๏ Temperature rises beyond 2°C could leave an additional 600 million facing acute malnutrition by the 2080s, and as many as 4 billion people experiencing growing water shortages.

Loss of livelihoods

๏ Livelihood sources of the poor are usually narrow and climate-sensitive. In periods of stress they draw down on a variety of assets and resources leaving them further exposed to the next risk.

Health and fatalities

๏ Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever are expected to increase. Today, approximately 40% of the world’s population is at risk from malaria. This is projected to rise to 80% by 2080.

Involuntary displacement and migration

๏ By 2050, between 200 and 300 million people may be permanently displaced due to climate change

Damage to infrastructure and utilities

๏ Slow and rapid climate impacts destroys assets and infrastructure

๏ Public utilities can be severely undermined with impacts on long-term development

Opportunity cost of climate change responses

๏ Valuable assets are diverted from development to combat climate change impacts

๏ Climate change mitigation may alter the way we look at livelihood diversification and access to affordable energy

Social justice, violent conflict and state fragility

๏ Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” that heightens the conditions for internal conflict, sows the seeds of instability in already volatile regions, and increases the likelihood of failed states.

Failed promises and missed opportunities

We are at a crossroads

The destination seems impossibly distant

Inform

Persuade

Mobilize

Incentivize

Overcome the denial

Teton County LibraryJackson Hole, Wyoming

17 September 2010

The Human Face of Climate ChangeExploring the impact of climate change on humans and societies

James MacNeill, former Secretary General of the Brundtland Commission

“The great tragedy of sustainable development is that we have not invented a politics to go with the concept”.

Discourse

Diagnosis

Design of process, institutions, policies and instruments

Evaluation and assessment

Substantive outcomes

What does a human focus offer?

What can we do as a community?

Lead (1) - Get the politics right:

International

Domestic

Corporate

Municipal and local

Household

Climate change building blocks

Lead (2) - The building blocks:

Mitigation

Adaptation

Technology

Finance

What can you do?

Lead (3) - The Four Cs:

Citizen

Consumer

Communicator

Change Agent

“Right now a moment of time is passing by! We must become that moment.”