Jaap Van Til's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2009 Europe

(CC) 2009 vantill gmail

The Motor: how networking will get us out of the crises


Prof Ir. Jaap van TillTelecommunication and Networking Group

Technology FacultyHAN University of Applied Sciences, NL

eComm Emerging Communications Conference Oct 28-30 2009“What’s next in Telecom, Mobile & Internet Communications”

Amsterdam Oct 29 08.45 – 09.05

The Motor:How Networking will

get us out of the CrisesThe question is no longer what PPL can do with telecom

but what telecom does to (groups of) People

Version 2

“Let the beauty we love be what we do. There are 00s of ways 2 kneel & kiss the ground.” Rumi, 13th century Sufi poet (recent Tweet on #iranelection)


The Motor: how networking will get us out of the crises 3

Early 21th Century Economics: Lessons for all

Market imperfections visible State better ? Bad memories …….

Two Nobel Prizes 2009 relevant for our sector ICT Networks:

• For Physics: Charles Kao for long distance comm on optic fibers• For Economics: Mrs Elinor Ostrom for het work on “Commons”

Neo Classic Economists: Market / State & “TRAGEDY of the Commons”

People are not cows! Possible “ Commedy of the Commons “Or even “ TRIUMPH of the Commons “!!! Examples : ISOC IETF Internet process of improvement, Wikipedia, YouTube Open Source SW, Internet Exchanges, SURFnet, Google, Twitter Flower Auctions, Wi-Fi , Mesh Networks, “waterschappen” Peer-to-Peer : in total more is contributed than taken out

Key: What do we share (non competitive) and what not shared (competitive)Choices and rules understood by THE COOPERATIVE



Mark Cooper [22] The U-Turn !! Inside-out and Outside-in

OPEN COOPERATIVE

COMMONS like Frequency bands



Mark Cooper : Examples



The FORCE of COOPERATION by P2Peerialists

DRIVERS BEHIND the IMPACT OF INTERNET & TELECOM : Networking Effects

1. Broadcasting of info: Value ~ grows with number of listeners, viewers N Sarnoff’s Law (value for the broadcaster/ advertiser/ spindoctor) 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + ……….(N) 2. Communication V ~ N2 Metcalfe’s Law N + N + N + N + N ……….(N)

(Odlyzko-Tilly Law V ~ N Log N)

3. Group Membership V ~ 2N Reed’s Law 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 ……….(N) ( + Multi Tribe Membership by networking )

4. Connected people working together V ~ N ! Van Till’s Synthecracy Netw. Law Upper bound of possible combinations of contributions N ! = N * N-1 * N-2 * …..* 2 * 1 (N)

Total space of cooperation = number of configurations in time/space when each unique and diverse individual contributes and shares resources and knowledge. [14]

Examples: teams, communities of practice, multiuser games, simulation Grids, virtual labs Mashup Team, Flock, Herd, Evolution by flexible learning and Group Selection [9,10]



Cooperative NETWORK i.e. WAVE can scale !

Different angles!

The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by Synthesis

< distance >

Max. Size NDoes not scale

Issues:

- Simple- Linear- Static

Issues:

- Complex- Non linear- Dynamic



The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by network sharing of contributions

Different angles !b. Resolution ~ < distance > contrast

Array

Grid IT CAN SCALE UP !!Clusters

a. Sensitivity ~ teledensity N*N

CORRELATION N ! Combinations

FFT NETWORK “network LensesTechnology

It can coordinate, inform, self organise

Global Brain 2012



The Trias Telematica: clustering of roles in the NetTech Age [ van Till 1988, version March 31 2008]

CIVIL SOCIETY empowered Civiliansvolunteers Freedom of Choice, users

microtransactions<Douglass North>virtual communities <Maslov ++>distant friend links, P2P, complexity horizontal value chains, shareSynthesis Synergy, distr. models * open source softw. dev. * ISOC IETF, organic growth * mashups, self org netw’s

general public Interest

STATE Governments Institutions

(unipolar extreme: bureacratic controlaholicism)

Reliability and Equality in treatment by Law

MKT Businesses Enterprises The power of EBITDA Risk/ Reward vent. Partnerships Brotherhoods

(unipolar extreme: dominant monopolies)

The power of ideas and know how

The power of position

(unipolar extreme:selfcentered, intolerance,isolation)

[ Separation of State Powers (Montesquieu)]

executive

legislative judiciary

Synthecracy



Sea of Green community on:

#iranelection (topic on Twitter.com)Facebook, BBC Farsi satTVYoutube, Internet, SMS

Many parallel paths [4]cannot be blocked. Volunteer actions [5]

Iranians calling for non violentReform, not Revolution [6].

Economy does not work, evenwithout sanctions.

What ppl do with technology ?

After Gustave Eiffel, St Cyr, France

Surprises and innovations

Rooftop chants Outside Home !! Mutual help by unrelated unselfish [7] Show the truth Give practical advice & recipes Make overviews, aggregates Show flourishing art and culture

What does Network Technology do to PPL ???!!!



(Fake: Newspaper montage)

SymbolsIRAN : Surprise uprising after 30 years of oppression[1] [2], now 2 months old

Emancipation of 35 million women: show no fear any more 70 % of university students are women

60 % of population are younger than 30

Culture of (micro) blogging



Monument for the Angels of Iran-viewing from different angles – Yes, we can Help Eachother !! August 2009, JvT



Conclusion:

After more (elite democracy) or less (mkt creative destruction) successful versions of Aristocracy, Meritocracy, Media-Consumocracy we will have

Synthecracy by massive use of network technology. Crux is distinction what to share and what not:

• Do not try to share soil, machines , policy, beliefs or utopia’s.

• Authorities and hierarchies are no longer very relevant. Thing that work are.

• Use the creative construction networking force of sharing & combining idea’s/ knowledge/ solutions that have shown to be working = Synthecracy. What unique specialised skill can you contribute ??

Around 2012 we enter the age of global network synergy We wish you good connections !



Sources

[1] Images from the Sea of Green http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quPXg_GoTOk[2] Farsi PDF magazine http://bit.ly/3tEjZx [3] van Till “Technologies of Flocking” http://www.scienceguide.nl/article.asp?articleid=107531 Science Guide July 3 2009 , including link to Stonier article.[4] Iran’s Modern Communications http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8ROCzKzQNc&feature=related[5] http://www.haystacknetwork.com/[6] American journalists about Iran http://fora.tv/2009/07/01/Tweeting_The_Revolution[7] Peter Csermely , “Weak Links" -- Stabilizers of Complex Systems from Proteins to Social Networks”; Springer 2006

[9 ] Rao, “Market Rebels – How Activists Make or Break Radical Innovations” ; 2009, Princeton University Press[8 ] Shirky, “Here Comes Everybody – How Change Happens when People Come Together; 2009, Penguin[10] Earls. “HERD – How to Change Mass Behaviour by Harnessing our True Nature”; revised edition 2009, Wiley[11] Carlota Perez, 2009 Open Democracy Journal; http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/economics/email/how-to-make-economic-crisis-creative[12] Perez, http://www.carlotaperez.org/papers/4-technologicalrevolutionsparadigm.htm#comienzo [13] Perez, http://www.carlotaperez.org/papers/2-technologicalrevolutionsparadigm.htm[14] Lawrence Lessig about the re-use of intellectual property http://wiki.lessig.org/index.php?title=TheKeenReader

[15] Peizer, “ The Dynamics of Technology for Social Change – lessons learned from the field” ; 2006, iUniverse Inc[16] Gene Sharp “ From Dictatorship to Democracy – A Conceptual Framework for Liberation, The Albert Einstein Institution 2002, Original version by Khit Pyaing , Bangkok in 1993. PDF is online.[17] Popovic, Milivojevic, Djinovic “Nonviolent Struggle – 50 Crucial Points” Manual ; 2006 CANVAS Belgrade, online as 50CP_Farsi.pdf or 50CP_English.pdf[18] Siegfried Woldhek http://www.Nabuur.com[19] Michel Bauwens P2P Foundation http://p2pfoundation.net/The_Foundation_for_P2P_Alternatives[20] Template Twitter Strategy for Government Departements (UK mInistries)[21] Fleetwood Mac, “Don’t stop Thinking about Tomorrow” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8arvEzHsA8[22] Mark Cooper ” FROM WIFI TO WIKIS AND OPEN SOURCE: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF COLLABORATIVE PRODUCTION IN

THE DIGITAL INFORMATION AGE” Telecommunications & High Technolgy Law Vol 5, 9/7/2007 Stanford

Technologies of Flocking: creative construction towards the Synthecracy Society



Addendum



Teledensity:

Fixed phoneline conn /100 inhab

Yearly GNP/ inh.

Source:Siemens

1997

<--Stonier [art 1983] See [3]

? ?

No dictatorships



Napoleon’s army and bureaucracy

Command &Control Information

SimpleLinearStatic

Networked P2P Cooperation Creative Construction

Coordination Hierachies and Authorities less relevant Contributions that WORKCooperation

Complex, non-linear, dynamic Now with Network Technolgy We Can !

Value is in the Link / RelationValue is in the centre/node, authority



Network Technology removes obstacles (Liebig’s Law ) Something changed !! see Shirky [8]

I GovernancePR, DecisionsBroadcasting MediaNewspapers, TVAdvertisingPropagandaSpin Doctors [20]

II Democracy and TelecommunicationDialogue, in panels on TVReferendum onlineE-democracyWebsite input, reactionsEmail

Diversity of ViewsMajority Rule with respect for minority

III SynthecracyCombination ofThings that Work Compl CooperationMSN,BloggingTribesSynthesisTwitterYoutube

Synergy, Emergent BehaviourSurprises, Value creation



Development of the Networking Cooperation Paradigm towards Synthecracy

1. Engineers developing working things together examples : ISOC IETF: Internet Engineering Taskforce IEEE Wi-Fi, Process of Improvements !! Linux, Open Source Software QL !!

2. Economic Innovation in Business Processes Disruptive Innovations : Rebels & Activists [9,10] i.e. Broadband FttH Analysis of Carlota Perez to get out of the crisis ad recession [12,13] After the creative destruction and meltdowns Creative Construction

3. Social networks and political processes P2P Foundation [19] , Perez [11 ], [15] Rebalance of the Trias Telematica by political parties [16,17,18] Sea of Green IRAN



THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM ( Perez [12] A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 1)

CONVENTIONAL COMMON SENSE NEW EFFICIENCY PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES

COMMAND AND CONTROL

Centralized command Vertical control Cascade of supervisory levels "Management knows best"

Central goal-setting and coordination Local autonomy/Horizontal self-control Self-assessing/self-improving units Participatory decision-making

STRUCTURE AND GROWTH Stable pyramid, growing in height and

complexity as it expands Flat, flexible network of very agile units Remains flat as it expands

PARTS AND LINKS Clear vertical links

Separate, specialized functional departments

Interactive, cooperative links between functions, along each product line

STYLE OFOPERATION

Optimized smooth running organizations Standard routines and procedures "There is one best way" Definition of individual tasks Single function specialization Single top-down line of command Single bottom-up information flow

Continuous learning and improvement Flexible system/Adaptable procedures "A better way can always be found" Definition of group tasks Multi-skilled personnel/Ad hoc teams Widespread delegation of decision making Multiple horizontal and vertical flows

PERSONNEL AND TRAINING Labor as variable cost

Market provides trained personnel People to fit the fixed posts Discipline as main quality

Labor as human capital Much in-house training and retraining Variable posts/Adaptable people Initiative/collaboration/motivation



THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM (Perez [12])

A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 2)

EQUIPMENT AND INVESTMENT Dedicated equipment

One optimum plant size for each product Each plant anticipates demand growth Strive for economies of scale for mass production

Adaptable/programmable/flexible equipment Many efficient sizes/Optimum relative Organic growth closely following demand Choice or combination of economies of scale, scope or specialization

PRODUCTION PROGRAMMING Keep production rhythm; Use inventory

to accommodate variation in demand. Produce for stock; shed labor in slac

Adapt rhythm to variation in demand Minimize response time ("Just-in-time") Use slack for maintenance and training

PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT A specific measure for each department

(purchasing, production, marketing, etc.) ercent tolerance on quality and rejects

Total productivity measured along the whole chain for each product line Strive for zero defects and zero rejects

SUPPLIERS, CLIENTS AND COMPETITORS

Separation from the outside world:Foster price competition among suppliers Make standard products for mass customers Arms length oligopoly with competitors The firm as a closed system

Strong interaction with outside world:Collaborative links with suppliers, with customers and, in some cases, with competitors (Basic R&D for instance) The firm as an open system

Prof. Carlota Perez shows us the way out of the crises ! General Purpose Technolgy (GPT): Electro / mechanical/ chemical ICT / Network Technology


The Motor: how networking will get us out of the crises

Jaap Van Til's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2009 Europe

Technology

Transcript of Jaap Van Til's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2009 Europe