Ivar Arana Pardo Member of National Steering Comite

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Community-Based Adaptation (CBA) Bolivia. Climate Risk Assessment at the Community level i ntegrating community perspectives and utilizing local knowledge. Ivar Arana Pardo Member of National Steering Comite. How measure climate change in Local condition? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • How measure climate change in Local condition?How should be prepared the communities for face to Climate Change?Local climate observation integrated to developmentWeaknesses community perception of climate change, social pressures and migration like to indirect effect to climate change.Local practices community perspectives and local knowledge climate risk.Conclusions

  • How measure climate change in Local condition?

    Nature observation for understand climate change for communities indigenes.Understand relationship between climate, productive systems and ecosystems.Historical memory about climate event and their impacts in livelihood.Change in floristic composition and wildlife.

  • BioindicadoresIf Thola (Parastrephia lepidophilla) flowers early it tells first seeding begin; if it does not Flower The community dont have first seeding. If it has fruit between September and October, They have good production. If fruit not finish their mature They have frozen or/and drought.BIOINDICATORKariwa When flower between in October November is meaning that is time a seeding, If it early flower there are seeding early too. When flower abundance and yellow is time of seeding for Good production.

  • When fox finish their howl is advertence there are not good production.But if it not finish their howl it is stopped by stun between their howl adverting the community will have a good production. When fox will make their burrow in low land near the lake This meaning that not has a lot of rainfall.

    Leke lekeFoxWild animals observationsWhen this birth make a nestle in high place meaning which a lot of rainfall; But if make in lowland is sure has drought .When has eggs put in high point and more big and uniform meaning which better potatoes production; but when it has small point and in less density there will less production.

  • Pilot experience in two regions of Bolivia like and select by CBA projects.Two regions are mountains areas.Both regions has different particularities in water supply.Theses regions has different responses of communities.They have high property level.Also theses regions have problems under actual condition and additional impact to climate changes which increasing their more properly

  • Landscape /EcosystemsForest /brushNaturalgrasslandWater ResourceSoilBiodiversityProductive systemsLivelihoodsFamiliar incomingAgricultureLivestoockOthersFood securityEnergyMarketClimate changeClimate variabilityEducationHealthCultura

  • Vulnerability and perceptions to climate change by communitiesProductive systems are highly dependent on climatic conditions.Lack of access to technologyReliant on subsistence agricultural production.Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability has immediate impact on agriculture activities.To long term reduce opportunities in Economic Active Population and these leave their communities.

  • Climate Geological Enviroment , Fires, SocialENSO Multivariate Index with number of emergency declarationIncreased frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with climate variabilityFloods, hailstorms, and others event produce serious road and settlement infrastructure damage

  • Family incomeTechnology accessContribution of agricultural production to GDPRetreating glaciers and reduction of streamflows.Recurrent drought in micro-regions and disturbances in in animals, plants, and ecosystemsEmergence of new pests and diseases in crops and livestock.Increasing ecosystem vulnerability forest fires, etc.Proxy indicators ecological, microclimatic changes that are readily apparent to communities

  • Perspectives and Local Knowledge in Climate Risk AssessmentTo assess climate change risk is not necessary only to know the behavior of climatic parameters One must understand the relationship of the parameter with livelihood and ecological variables that are important to the communitySocial perceptions are evaluated in participative meeting when all participant interchanges experiences a form of social research.

  • Food Insecurity related with extreme climate events, temperature increase and others Pest and Diseases in Crop Gorgojo de los AndesPolilla de la papaDroughtsHail stormsFrostTizn Tardo de la papa

  • Competition for final destination of food production

  • Changes in ecosystem configurationRecurrent droughts in low lands and unusual areas of AmazoniaLost of BiodiversityForest degradation

  • TOP DOWNPROCESSBOTTON UPPROCESSNATIONAL ADAPTATION MECHANISM(SECTORIAL) COUNTIES PILOT ADAPTATIONPROJECTSCBA ProjectContributing toAdaptation measure implementation

  • CLIMATE CHANGE INCLUDED IN NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES POLICIESREDUCTION OF GRENHOUSE GASES AND CARBON SECUESTRATIONPrograma de Certificacin de reduccin de emisiones, secuestro y conservacin.Programa Nacional de Secuestro de Carbono.Programa de Cambios de Matriz Energtica y eficiencia energtica para la Reduccin de emisiones de GEI. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Programa de prevencin de desastres en sectores vulnerables.Programa de adaptacin de sistemas de subsistencia vulnerables. Recursos Hdricos; recursos Energticos; soberana alimentaria.Programas de Educacin.

  • National Climate Change Adaptation MechanismSectorial Programs Scientific researchStrategic targestsFood SecurityWater ResourcesEducation, Capacitation, and public awarenessHealth Adaptation measurements ImplementacinEcosystemHuman Settlement and risk ManagementAnthropological aspects and ancient knowledgeCross cutting Programs StrategiesStrategic liasonLegal FrameworkHelp sectorial iniciativesMainstreaming climate changeCross cutting Programs

  • ADAPTATION PROCESS Local,Sectorial and National Planning Implementation Progress measurement and experiences learningDisaster RecuperationEmergency answers Protection and evacuationHazardsDesastreDISASTERDEVELOPMENT

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    Ventas

    Hoja1

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    Science20

    Methods20

    Policies and decisions20

    Process20

    Community Participation20

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  • VULNERABILITY ASSESMENT Strategies and Measurements Implementation ADAPTACIONFase I Fase II POLICIES BUILDING

  • BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE LIVILIHOOD IMPACTSVulnerability Assessment for extreme events impacts and climate change sensitive diseasesIntegrate focusEarly warning systems development Building CapacitiesPublic awareness raisingDevelop adaptive capacityMaistreamingIncrease adaptive capacity for long termBuilding structural scenariosAdjust policy and implmentation in national strategies.Development of concrete adaptation measures intersectoral and multi-levelEvaluate progress and learn from experienceTechnological InnovationEmphasize the relationship between the biosphere and the prosperous development of society

  • Present and future vulnerability identificationProactive Behavior of rural comunity Mainstreaming

  • Understand climate trend for preparing response

  • CONCLUSIONES

    Capitalizar el conocimientos ancestrales de las comunidades, es muy importante.Explicar a partir de la ciencia los fenmenos observados en naturaleza.Integrar a la toma de decisiones de la comunidad e incidir en polticas pblicas a partir de la experiencia local.Establecer un dialogo entre el saber local y los resultados de la ciencia.Todo integrado a la toma de decisiones podr garantizar la sostenibilidad

    *Temperature and precipitation tend in different places, Statistic al significances and uncertainties management. From familiar structure. Example to climate change participative vulnerability assessment.

    *Debido a la Ubicacin geogrfica Bolivia presenta un gran variedad de ecosistema que varia altitudinalmente desde los llanos tropicales a 550 metros sobre el nivel del mar hasta aproximadamente 7000 msnm. ****Indice multivariado ENOS y su correlacin con el numero de declaratorias de emergencias y el escenario AIM El 60% de las declaratorias de desastre corresponden a los eventos climticos*Fenmenos El Nio por el nmero de trimestres cuyo promedio supero el ndice de 2 y el promedio de la anomala. Promedios de la Anomala de los Fenmenos El Ni que en algn momento superaron o igualaron el ndice de 1.5

    **La Seguridad Alimentaria tambin se esta viendo comprometida por efecto del cambio climtico, dado que gran parte de la agricultura en el pas depende de las condiciones predominantes del tiempo, considerando que solo el 13 por ciento de los cultivos se realiza bajo riego, por lo tanto es altamente vulnerable al cambio de los patrones meteorolgicos. Los factores que estn incidiendo en el rendimiento son: plagas y enfermedades de los cultivos, y eventos extremos expresados en sequas, heladas y granizadas. Condiciones que tienen una alta incidencia en la calidad de los productos y la disponibilidad alimentaria. *La inseguridad alimentaria se expresa sanitariamente en enfermedades relacionadas con la disponibilidad de alimentos, desnutricin y compromiso del crecimiento y desarrollo infantil (Bolivia, tiene 1,8 millones de personas en inseguridad alimentaria (PMA 2008). 50% de las muertes de menores de 5 aos (61/1000) tiene como causa la desnutricin aguda Falta de comida ,Desnutricin crnica 26,8%, uno de los ndices ms altos del continente. Si no se atiende antes de los 2 aos, es irreversible y provocar: nios de talla baja, peso inferior para su edad, menor capacidad cognitiva, adems que es un problema transgeneracional, es decir que pasa de madre a hijo, sucesivamente.Para complicar an ms las cosas, la competencia por el destino final de la produccion de alimentos esta en juego

    *Los e