IT and Transportation Systems
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Transcript of IT and Transportation Systems
A/Prof Jeffrey Funk
Division of Engineering and Technology
Management
National University of Singapore
For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
The Need for Better Transport
Vehicle congestion costs the European Union more than one percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—or over 100 billion Euros per year
U.S. drivers wasted 4.2 billion hours, 2.8 billion gallons of fuel and $87.2 billion due to vehicle congestion in 2007
Twenty percent of CO2 emissions are the by product of transportation
Problems also exist for other modes of transport
Almost one-quarter of U.S. scheduled flights in 2008 were delayed
Less than half of container vessels arrive in port on schedule and empty containers are common
Sources: http://www-07.ibm.com/innovation/my/exhibit/documents/pdf/2_The_Case_For_Smarter_Transportation.pdf
Science, 6 June 2014, Vol 344, Issue 6188
Can Information Technology Help?
Some technologies experience much more rapid improvements than do other technologies
Information related technologies have much more rapid rates of improvement than do other technologies (wind is 2%, batteries are 5% per year)
Can we assemble new types of transportation systems that provide users with better value?
We must consider changes that will likely occur over the life of a transport system
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10 0 10 20 30 40
Number of Technologies by Annual Rates of Improvement
Annual Rates of ImprovementSource: Nagy B, Farmer D, Bui Q, Trancik J 2013. Statistical Basis for Predicting
Technological Progress. PLoS ONE 8(2): e52669. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052669NREL, 2013
Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates (> 10%) of
Improvements (Information Transformation)
Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate Per Year
Integrated Circuits Number of transistors per chip 1971-2011 38%
MEMS (Micro-elec
mech systems)
Number of Electrodes per Eye 2002-2013 46%
Drops per second for printer 1985-2009 61%
Organic Transistors Mobility 1994-2007 101%
Power ICs Current Density 1993-2012 16%
Carbon Nanotube
Transistors
1/Purity (% metallic) 1999-2011 32%
Density (per micrometer) 2006-2011 357%
Superconducting
Josephson Junctions
1/Clock period 1990-2010 20%
1/Bit energy 1990-2010 10%
Qubit Lifetimes 1999-2012 142%
Bits per Qubit lifetime 2005-2013 137%
Photonics Number of Optical Channels 1983-2011 39%
Computers Instructions per unit time 1979-2009 36%
Instructions per time and dollar 1979-2009 52%
Quantum Computers Number of Qubits 2002-2012 107%
Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates (>10%) of
Improvements (Information Storage)
Technology Dimensions of
measure
Time Period Rate per Year
Magnetic Storage Recording density
(disks)
1991-2011 56%
Recording density
(tape)
1993-2011 32%
Cost per bit 1956-2007 33%
Flash Memory Storage Capacity 2001-2013 47%
Resistive RAM 2006-2013 272%
Ferro-electric RAM 2001-2009 37%
Phase Change RAM 2004-2012 63%
Magneto RAM 2002-2011 58%
Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvements
Information Transmission, Materials and Biological Transformation
Technology
Domain
Sub-Technology Dimensions of
measure
Time
Period
Rate Per
Year
Information
Transmission
Last Mile Wireline Bits per second 1982-2010 48.7%
Wireless, 100 m Bits per second 1996-2013 79.1%
Wireless, 10 m 1995-2010 58.4%
Wireless, 1 meter
(USB)
1996-2008 77.8%
Materials
Transformation
Carbon Nanotubes 1/Minimum
Theoretical Energy for
Production
1999-2008 86.3%
Biological
Transformation
DNA Sequencing per unit
cost
2001-2013 146%
Synthesizing per cost 2002-2010 84.3%
Cellulosic Ethanol Output per cost 2001-2012 13.9%
Even Most Rapidly Improving Technologies that Technically
“Transform Energy” are Information-Related Technologies
Technology
Domain
Sub-Technology Dimensions of
measure
Time
Period
Rate Per
Year
Energy Trans-
formation
Light Emitting
Diodes (LEDs)
Luminosity per Watt 1965-2008 31%
Lumens per Dollar 2000-2010 40.5%
Organic LEDs Luminosity per Watt 1987-2005 29%
GaAs Lasers Power/length-bar 1987-2007 30%
LCDs Square meters per dollar 2001-2011 11.0%
Quantum Dot
Displays
External Efficiency 1994-2009 79.0%
Solar Cells Peak Watt Per Dollar 2004-2013 21.0%
Photo-sensors
(Camera chips)
Pixels per dollar 1983-2013 48.7%
Light sensitivity 1986-2008 18%
Energy
Transmission
Super-conductors Current-length per dollar 2004-2010 115%
Sources listed in: Funk J and Magee C, Exponential Change: What drives it? What does it tell us about the future? Amazon.com
Open Source Software is Also Important
The Use of Open Source Software Continues to Increase
One Study Concluded that 84% of software developers had recently used open source software http://www.zdnet.com/article/survey-indicates-four-out-of-five-developers-now-use-open-source/
The greater use of open source software can reduce the cost of software for public transportation systems (e.g., GPS for buses and
for bus-related smart phone services)
Dedicated roads to automated vehicles
Electric vehicle charging systems
Objectives Can information technology (IT) improve the
efficiency of transportation systems in terms of energy usage and carbon emissions?
Transport of goods?
Transport of humans?
Can IT encourage greater use of
public transportation?
bicycles for commuting?
or electric vehicles?
Do these improvements in IT require changes in the design of these systems and if so, what changes?
Session Technology
1 Objectives and overview of course
2 When do new technologies become economically feasible?
3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that
better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling
4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems
5 Internet of Things, MEMS and Bio-electronics
6 Chinese New Year
7 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays
8 Roll-to Roll Printing, Human-Computer Interfaces
9 Information Technology and Land Transportation
10 DNA Sequencing and Solar Cells
This is the 9th Session of MT5009
Outline IT facilitates public transportation
State of public transportation
Ticketing, routes and scheduling
GPS and buses
Bike sharing and light rail
Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
Greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density
Electrification of Vehicles
Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
Different Cities, Different Futures
Public Transportation and Sustainability
Trains and buses consume less energy than automobiles
20% the energy per passenger-kilometer in London
40% the energy per passenger-kilometer in Japan
What impacts on these numbers?
Trains and buses also
reduce vehicular traffic and thus vehicle congestion
use less land than do automobiles
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21569059-subways-are-spreading-fast-going-underground
Can all Cities be like Tokyo?
http://www.humantransit.org/sydney/page/2/
Greater use of public transport in:1. large cites
2. very dense centralizedcities
3. cities in whichpeople commutein samedirection
Most Cities have Low Rates of Public Transport
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_in_Boston
Large Cities and Long Commute Times Lead to High Use
of Public Transportation
http://www.slideshare.net/ce4710/copenhagen-3-15540601?qid=f10cb4ca-98cc-45f8-a0f5-e8e36599a998&v=default&b=&from_search=3
Long Distances to Rail Stations,
Less Usage of Rail
http://urbankchoze.blogspot.sg/2014_09_01_archive.html
Close Rail Stations Probably Means Shopping and
Other Things are Close
But Bus and Train Prices/Fares also Have an Impact:Prices go up and ridership goes down
http://www.planningforreality.org/category/future/
http://www.planningforreality.org/category/future/
Bus and Train Prices Apparently Rose in Late 1980s
Outline IT facilitates public transportation
State of public transportation
Ticketing, routes and scheduling
GPS and buses
Bike sharing and light rail
Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
Greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density
Electrification of Vehicles
Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
Different Cities, Different Futures
We Can and Are Solving This Problem
Software is eating public
transport, December 2013
To Smart Passes/Tickets
And the Services are also Changing and Expanding
Big Data is Also Useful
Analyze user trip data to better understand actual trips
Where do their trips start and stop?
Use this data to do better
route planning of buses and trains
location of stations
integration of bus and subway routes
Reduce breakdowns through better sensing and pattern analysis
Seoul claims that it improved its system through better IT and Big Data http://www.slideshare.net/simrc/seoul-public-transportation?qid=68d590a9-c62f-4c24-9b5f-
236c36c6dda2&v=default&b=&from_search=10
Singapore is also doing Big Data with public transportation https://www.techinasia.com/ibm-create-smarter-singapore-starting-transport-system/
Outline IT facilitates public transportation
State of public transportation
Ticketing, routes and scheduling
GPS and buses
Bike sharing and light rail
Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
Greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density
Electrification of Vehicles
Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
Different Cities, Different Futures
Riding Buses is a Hassle
Which bus?
Where is the bus stop?
When do the buses arrive?
Where is that guide to buses?
Typical American response: Maybe I should just take a taxi or buy a car…..
But help is on the way
Global Positioning Systems (GPS)Space segment -
composed of GPS
satellites that transmit
time & position
in the form of radio
signals to the user
Control segment -
composed of all the
ground-based facilities
that are used to
monitor and control
the satellites
User segment - consists of
the users & GPS receivers
GPS: Improvements in Accuracy
Ref: http://www.gps.gov
Err
ors
Fal
l
Improvements in GPS continue to Occur
More Detailed Data on Improvements in Accuracy
(reductions in root mean square for x, y, and z axes)
Along with Improvements in other Electronics,
Phones are Becoming Great Navigation DevicesMany Apps are Also Available
With GPS on
buses and data
made public,
apps for
buses are also
emerging and
getting better
Phones Help Us Know Routes, Bus Stops, and Bus Arrival Times
Can These Apps Increase Bus Ridership? Bus apps can or will eventually tell you
Locations of bus stops (and train stations and you)
Arrival times, within a few minutes
When to start walking to bus stop
Data on riders also helps bus companies do route planning
Eventually apps will summarize transport alternatives and their comparative times among buses, trains, bikes
Smart phones will become cheap enough for all 7 Billion of the world’s population, and they will continue to get better
Displays become more sensitive, durable, flexible and conform better to wrists and other parts of our bodies
See Sessions 4, 6 and 8 for more information on phones, displays and human-computer interfaces http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
Can open source software reduce the capital costs of these systems?
http://www.thirteen.org/metrofocus/2012/03/does-knowing-count-comparing-urban-bus-tracking-systems-and-ridership/
http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/local-buses-to-receive-gps-tracking-upgrades/article_50f648f1-1b68-5ab1-afaa-8221d621840b.html?mode=jqm
Can WiFi Increase Ridership?
Providing free Wi-Fi to bus and train riders can increase users of buses and trains
Cost of Wi-Fi keeps falling so this becomes an increasingly inexpensive perk for riders
People can enjoy their public transportation experience more than they can driving their cars
Can choose education or entertainment
No road rage!
Average miles driven per capita is falling
Fewer car licenses for young people City residents don’t own cars
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/01/why-do-the-smartest-cities-have-the-smallest-share-of-cars/283234// http://www.economist.com/node/21563280
http://www.ssti.us/2013/02/per-capita-vmt-ticks-
down-for-eighth-straight-year/
56%
The End of Car in U.S.?
Outline IT facilitates public transportation
State of public transportation
Ticketing, routes and scheduling
GPS and buses
Bike sharing and light rail
Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
Greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density
Electrification of Vehicles
Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
Different Cities, Different Futures
Popular Countries and Cities for Bicycles
Mostly Europe and Japan
http://www.copenhagenize.com/2009/07/worlds-most-bicycle-friendly-cities.html
www.spokefly.com/blog/top-10-countries-bicycles-per-capita/
Other Cities Have Similar Problems
http://inhabitat.com/tokyos-eco-cycle-park-is-a-state-of-the-art-
underground-bicycle-elevator/http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2013/06/5-robotic-bike-parking-
systems-that-solve-an-urban-dilemma/
Are these the Solutions? More Storage Spaces?
Figure 4. From chaos to order: the benefits of bike storage
Can we Move from Chaos to Order?
How About Bicycle Sharing?
How does it workUsers register for service, borrow bikes using phones, phones help find bike stations
AdvantagesReduced space for bike storageSpace can be used for
other thingsFaster parking and finding
of bicyclesCan facilitate train usage
What is it?Borrow bikes for short time period
ChallengesMaintenanceRedistribution of
bicyclesThefts/vandalism
Costs? Less than one dollar through open source software and sufficient volumes
http://www.slideshare.net/renartz/sharing-space-time?qid=a5a9db03-bba1-4cc0-b2e2-27c76655899b&v=default&b=&from_search=3
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/3-charts-explain-nyc-bike-share-success-2014-3
Between launch in
May 2013 and
March 2014,
Users of NY City’s
bike share program
took more than 6.5
million Citi Bike
trips, and nearly
100,000 people
have become
annual riders.
Many of these bikes
are used in
combination with
rail.
Bike Sharing can Promote Rail Usage
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/3-charts-explain-nyc-bike-share-success-2014-3
NY City Placed more of the bike stations close
to rail stations than did Chicago or Washington DC
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/3-charts-explain-nyc-bike-share-success-2014-3
NY (Citi Bike) vs. Chicago (Divvy) and Washington DC (Capital)
Capital (top) and Operating Costs Can be High
http://www.slideshare.net/renartz/sharing-space-time?qid=a5a9db03-bba1-4cc0-b2e2-27c76655899b&v=default&b=&from_search=3
But Remember
More users lead to lower capital and operating costs per user
The cost of these systems will fall as
cost of information technology (including phones) falls
and we design better systems, perhaps using open source software
can universities promote open source software?
As mobile phones get better, sharing bikes becomes easier
Space for bicycle storage can be sold or leased to finance bike
sharing systems
Bicycle storage is usually in expensive downtown locations
Often next to train stations
This space can be sold or leased to restaurants, cafes, etc. for millions of
dollars each year
http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2013/update112
A bit of a tangent, but we can also share
car parking spaces using mobile phones
Other policies being promoted for parking in US and Europe1. Eliminate minimum parking space requirements
2. Raise prices and adjust them according to demand.
Since streets are too congested with parked cars and people looking for parking spaces
And Help Drivers Find Parking Spaces
Reduce gas and frustration from driving around looking for parking spaces 45% of traffic on streets in Brooklyn related to searching
for parking, 24% in Soho
Can increase utilization of parking facilities with IT (38% without IT vs. 17% with IT)
IT can provide dynamic signs (with LCD displays), parking apps, smart payment and other services
And of course IT can improve vehicle navigation Shortest distance routes
Ones with least traffic
http://www.slideshare.net/ChristianMcCarrick/facilitating-mobility-parking-public-and-alternative-transportation?qid=
68d590a9-c62f-4c24-9b5f-236c36c6dda2&v=default&b=&from_search=4
Outline IT facilitates public transportation
State of public transportation
Ticketing, routes and scheduling
GPS and buses
Bike sharing and light rail
Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles (AVs)
Greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density
Electrification of Vehicles
Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
Different Cities, Different Futures
Roads Dedicated to AVs
Improvements in IT are making this economically feasible
While not as environmentally friendly as bicycles, buses, and trains, dedicating roads to AVs can reduce inter-vehicle distances on roads
reduce delays at traffic signals
and thus increase both capacity of roads and speeds of vehicles
resulting higher speeds will increase fuel efficiency (figure 7) and reduce carbon emissions
In the long term, AVs can reduce car ownership and
thus necessary space for roads and parking
cities can use reduced space to close parking garages and block vehicles from some streets, thus resulting in higher quality city environments.
Dedicated Roads Lead to Higher Capacity Roads
Dedicated Roads Lead to Fewer Delays at Traffic Signals
Roads dedicated to AVs can have higher speeds and
thus higher Fuel Efficiencies
Can we move these
cars at 30MPH or faster?
Cost of Autonomous Vehicles (Google Car) Falls as Improvements
in Lasers and Other “Components” Occur
Source: Wired Magazine, http://www.wired.com/magazine/2012/01/ff_autonomouscars/3/
Better Lasers, Camera chips, MEMS, ICs, GPS Are Making these
Vehicles Economically Feasible1 Radar: triggers alert when something
is in blind spot
2 Lane-keeping: Cameras recognize lane
markings by spotting contrast between road
surface and boundary lines
3 LIDAR: Light Detection and Ranging
system depends on 64 lasers, spinning at
upwards of 900 rpm, to generate a 360-
degree view
4 Infrared Camera: camera detects
objects
5 Stereo Vision: two cameras build a
real-time 3-D image of the road ahead
6 GPS/Inertial Measurement: tells us
location on map
7 Wheel Encoder: wheel-mounted
sensors measure wheel velocity
ICs interpret and act on this data
What an Autonomous Vehicle Sees
When Will AVs Become Economically Feasible?
According to one source, cost of “Google Car” is $150,000 of which most is for electronic components (e.g., about $70,000 is for LIDAR)
Current rates of improvement are 30%-40% If costs drop 25% a year, cost of electronics will drop by 90% in ten
years
Sensors are being incorporated into existing vehicles http://www.ti.com/ww/en/analog/car-of-the-future/?DCMP=gma-tra-carofthefuture-en&HQS=carofthefuture-bs-en
What about dedicating roads or lanes in roads to AVs? Would this reduce the technical requirements of the cars and thus
make them cheaper?
Cars could rely more on wireless communication, magnetic stripes and other inexpensive sensors than on LIDAR
AVs could move very quickly thus reducing travel time, no more traffic jams!
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jun/02/autonomous-cars-expensive-google-
Many Advantages for Autonomous Vehicles and Roads Dedicated to Them
Less congestion and higher fuel efficiencies
More cars per area and thus either higher capacity roads or fewer lanes on the roads
Fewer crashes, accidents, deaths, ambulances, and insurance expenditures
Lighter vehicles might become more common since lower probability of accidents (higher fuel efficiency)
Less traffic tickets and police officers
Along with public transportation, less ownership of vehicles and less parking spaces
Sources: http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/05/for-self-driving-car-future-traffic.html#more
See next slide for more details on references
Sources from last slideA highly popular article on Slashdot and Reddit Futurologymakes note that the Google driverless car has not gotten a traffic ticket after driving 700,000 miles. Local government revenue in the USA was $1.73 trillion in 2014. So the traffic tickets make up 0.38% of the local government revenue.Self driving cars could save $500 billion in the USA from avoided crashes and traffic jams and can boost city productivity by 30% of urban GDP after a few decades enabling larger and denser cities. So traffic tickets are 1.2% of the $500 billion from avoided crashes and traffic jams in the US. It is even less worldwide with more crashes and traffic jam costs. It is 0.15% of the 30% of urban GDP. In 2010, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, killing 32,885 and injuring 2,239,000 in the United States. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 33,561 people died in motor vehicle crashes in 2012, up 3.3 percent from 32,479 in 2011. In 2012, an estimated 2,362,000 people were injured in motor vehicle crashes, up 6.5 percent from 2,217,000 in 2011. In 2012, the average auto liability claim for property damage was $3,073; the average auto liability claim for bodily injury was $14,653. In 2012, the average collision claim was $2,950; the average comprehensive claim was $1,585. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says in 2010 that the cost of medical care and productivity losses associated with motor vehicle crash injuries was over $99 billion, or nearly $500, for each licensed driver in the United States. All car crash costs in the USA are estimated at $400 billion per year. In 2013, worldwide the total number of road traffic deaths remains unacceptably high at 1.24 million per year
Traffic Congestion $100 billion cost in the USAIn the USA, using standard measures, waste associated with traffic congestion summed to $101 billion of delay and fuel cost. The cost to the average commuter was $713 in 2010 compared to an inflation-adjusted $301 in 1982 Sixty million Americans suffered more than 30 hours of delay in 2010 1.9 billion gallons of fuel were wasted because of traffic congestion Traffic congestion caused aggregate delays of 4.8 billion hours. Transport 2012.org puts a 200 billion Euro price tag on congestion in Europe (approximately 2% of GDP). Central America also has its traffic woes. Let’s not forget other countries. On the weekend, Panama found that the price of congestion for business and the community was somewhere between $500 million-$2 billion annually. According to the Asian Development Bank, road congestion costs economies 2%–5% of gross domestic product every year due to lost time and higher transport costs.
More traffic density and Larger, More Productive City populations can boost GDP by 30%Google told the world it has developed computer driving tech that is basically within reach of doubling (or more) the capacity of a road lane to pass cars. Pundits don’t seem to realize just how big a deal this is – it could let cities be roughly twice as big, all else equal. Seminal work by Ciccone and Hall (1996) assessed the impacts of density on productivity in the US, and found that doubling employment density, and keeping all other factors constant, increased average labor productivity by around 6%. Subsequent work by Ciccone (1999) found that in Europe, all other things being equal, doubling employment density increased productivity by 5%. A third paper (Harris and Ioannides, 2000) applies the logic directly to metropolitan areas and also finds a 6% increase in productivity with a doubling of density. More recent work by Dan Graham (2005b, 2006) examines the relationship between increased effective density (which takes into account time travelled between business units) and increased productivity across different industries. Graham finds that across the whole economy, the urbanisation elasticity (that is, the response of productivity to changes in density) is 0.125. This means that a 10% increase in effective density, holding all other factors constant, is associated with a 1.25% increase in productivity for firms in that area. Doubling the density of an area would result in a 12.5% increase in productivity. Economist Robin Hanson noted that doubling the population of any city requires only about an 85% increase in infrastructure, whether that be total road surface, length of electrical cables, water pipes or number of petrol stations. This systematic 15% savings happens because, in general, creating and operating the same infrastructure at higher densities is more efficient, more economically viable, and often leads to higher-quality services and solutions that are impossible in smaller places. Interestingly, there are similar savings in carbon footprints — most large, developed cities are ‘greener’ than their national average in terms of per capita carbon emission. Road capacity could be boosted by 4 times using robotic cars. This could be another 30% boost to productivity.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/05/for-self-driving-car-future-traffic.html#more
Real Benefits of AVs Come When Roads are Dedicated to Them
Vehicles are Controlled by Wireless Communication Technologies on Dedicated Roads
Cars are checked for autonomous capability when they enter a dedicated road
Route plans are checked and integrated with other route plans
Improvements in computer processing power facilitate checking and integrating
Much of these calculations would be done in secure cloud
Roads Dedicated to AVs also Simplifies Solutions
Magnets and RFID tags can be embedded in highways to help control vehicles
They create an invisible railway
Estimated cost in Singapore <200M SGD for magnets <110M SGD for RFID Very cheap, less than 2SGD
per vehicle
Wireless Communication May Become Main Method of Controlling AVs
Vehicles are Controlled by Wireless Communication Technologies on Dedicated Roads
Cars are checked for autonomous capability when they enter a dedicated road
Route plans are checked and integrated with other route plans
Improvements in computer processing power facilitate checking and integrating
Much of these calculations would be done in secure cloud
Improvements in Latency (delay times) Enable
Centralized Control of Vehicles
Latency is Still Falling
Expected to fall below 0.1 milliseconds with wireless 5G services that will be implemented by early 2020s Jones R 2015. Telecom’s Next Goal: Defining 5G, Wall Street Journal, March 9.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/telecom-industry-bets-on-5g-1425895320
Could AVs become the main market for cellular 5G services
Processing is done in cloud and the cost of these cloud services continues to fall
Falling latency requires better IT, but this keeps occurring through Moore’s Law
High Processing Capability is Needed to Control Vehicles
Improvements in Integrated Circuits and Computers Enable this Processing Power
Processing power for 100 km road by vehicle inflow and reaction times
(Several thousands PCs)
Many of the Computer Calculations (price per car)
Would be Done in the Cloud
Moore’s Law Drives Reductions in Cloud
Computing Services (price per car)
Less Ownership of Private Vehicles?
Autonomous vehicles make autonomous taxis feasible
Just reserve a taxi with your mobile phone
Combined with other changes, private ownership of cars will probably continue to drop
Increased use of public transportation
New services such as those from Uber (easy to rent taxis) and Zipcar (rent cars)
Uber’s service may also revolutionize delivery; rent a delivery service with your mobile phone
Key Issue for Cities
Do they reduce the amount of road and parking space?
Or do they keep the same space, and thus allow many more vehicles on the road?
How does this choice impact on sustainability and quality of life?
Do people ride vehicles more?
Do they ride them further distances
Outline IT facilitates public transportation
State of public transportation
Ticketing, routes and scheduling
GPS and buses
Bike sharing and light rail
Also roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
Also greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density
Electrification of Vehicles
Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
Different Cities, Different Futures
Many Ways to Do Electric Vehicles 1) Electric vehicle with same range and acceleration as
gasoline engines Electric motors have similar power densities as engines
But low energy and power storage densities of batteries (and capacitors and flywheels) make this difficult to achieve
2) Use both gasoline and electric storage, i.e., hybrid Very expensive to include both
Most users choose vehicles based on price
3) All electric but with low capacity electric storage and high density of (rapid) charging stations Can we recharge more frequently?
With rapid charging and/or high density of charging stations?
With wireless or wired charging?
Source: (Koh and Magee, 2008)
Electric Motors Have Similar Power Density as Engines
Major Bottleneck is Low Energy Storage Density of Batteries
Why is this
important?
When will
batteries have
similar levels of
energy density
as gasoline?
1 megajoule = 0.28 kwH
Meg
aJoule
sP
er L
iter
MegaJoules Per Kg
High Energy Densities
Are obviously important for vehicles
The vehicle must carry the fuel/battery
Vicious cycle: heavier fuel/battery means more fuel/battery is needed
Energy/Power densities are important for all energy technologies
Higher energy/power density of engines leads to better fuel efficiency and performance for automobiles, aircraft, ships
Even for stationary engines, higher energy/power densities often lead to lower costs per output since costs are often related to size
Storage type Specific energy (MJ/kg)
Indeterminate matter and antimatter 89,876,000,000 *
Deuterium-tritium fusion 576,000,000
Uranium-235 used in nuclear weapons 88,250,000
Natural uranium (99.3% U-238, 0.7% U-235) in fast breeder reactor 86,000,000
Reactor-grade uranium (3.5% U-235) in light water reactor 3,456,000
30% Pu-238 α-decay 2,200,000
Hf-178m2 isomer 1,326,000
Natural uranium (0.7% U235) in light water reactor 443,000
30% Ta-180m isomer 41,340
Even Higher Energy Densities Exist
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
*about 4740 kg of antimatter could have supplied humans with all their energy needs in 2008. for more information
on anti-matter, see Michio Kaku, Physics of the Impossible, New York: Doubleday, 2008
Another way to look at energy density:This is from the perspective of land
Source: Vaclav Smil
Source: Koh and Magee, 2008
Returning to Energy Storage Density for Batteries
(Improvements per weight)
1 megajoule = 0.28 kwH
Batteries
Improvements in Energy Storage Density (per volume)
Source: Koh and Magee, 2008
Batteries
Source: Koh and Magee, 2005
Improvements in Energy Storage (per cost)
Batteries
2012
Electric
Vehicle
Sources: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future, presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden, October
19-20. http://electronicdesign.com/power/here-comes-electric-propulsion http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/12/panasonic-20091225.html
More Recent Data on Li-Ion Batteries (5% per year)
Today’s
Tesla
Model
S has
800 Wh/l
Improvements in Energy Storage Density
Slow rate for Li-ion batteries
at 5% per year, it will take >50 years for batteries to have same energy density of gasoline
Flywheels and capacitors have faster rates of improvement
Capacitors are fastest but are behind the others
Flywheels have similar levels as batteries
Both are used in Formula 1 vehicles
How can we reduce need for high energy storage densities? Hybrids is current option, but they will always be more expensive than
conventional vehicles
Can we recharge more frequently? With rapid charging and/or high density of charging stations?
Should we use wired or wireless charging?
Improvements in Cost are also a Problem
Ford Motor Co. CEO Alan Mulally said in April 2012 Battery weighs 600-700 pounds and provides 23 kilowatt
hours (120 km?)
Battery costs 12-15,000 USD
In other words, the batteries represent a significant fraction of total price ($12,000 to $15,000 for car that normally sells for about $22,000).
So the total price about $39,200 for Ford’s Focus EV
Analysts then calculated between $522 and $650 a kilowatt hour for EV batteries
http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304432704577350052534072994
Outline IT facilitates public transportation
State of public transportation
Ticketing, routes and scheduling
GPS and buses
Bike sharing and light rail
Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
Greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density
Electrification of Vehicles
Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
Different Cities, Different Futures
Electrification of Vehicles (1) It’s not just the addition of an energy storage devices;
electrical controls are replacing mechanical controls water and oil pumps, radiator cooling fans
steering systems, brakes, throttles, shock absorbers
The next great step, which has already occurred in locomotives, large trucks, and aircraft Electric drive trains will replace the gearbox, driveshaft,
differential
They have higher power densities and are more reliable than drives that rely on shafts, gears, belts, and hydraulic fluids
This enables significant reduction in weight of car and thus amount of energy storage density in batteries
More general source: Peter Huber, Mark Mills, 2006, The Bottomless Well:
The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy
http://cesa-automotive-electronics.blogspot.sg/2012/09/dual-voltage-power-supply-system-with.html
Electrification of Vehicles (2)
Part of the trend towards electrical controls are being driven by improvements in semiconductors
Electrical controls use semiconductors
Power semiconductors experience improvements each year as do integrated circuits (ICs)
Improvements occur in dimension of more power per area (through new materials) and thus lower costs
but not to the extent of microprocessors and memory
Several types of power electronics/semiconductors
Greater power requires more expensive power electronics
Faster rates of improvement with lower power
Sources: http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/eper_07.htm and The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the
Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy, Peter Huber and Mark P. Mills
http://www.appliedmaterials.com/nanochip/nanochip-fab-
solutions/december-2013/power-struggle
Greater Power Requires More Expensive Power Electronics
(Insulated Gate
Bipolar Transistor)
Metal Oxide Semiconductor
Field Effect Transistors)
Source: http://www.embedded.com/design/components-and-packaging/4371098/New-power-semiconductor-technologies-
challenge-assembly-and-system-setups
Improvements in IGBTs are Slow – only 3.4% per year(Reductions in Voltages for same Current and thus reductions in area and cost)
Source: http://www.embedded.com/design/components-and-packaging/4371098/New-power-semiconductor-technologies-
challenge-assembly-and-system-setups
Improvements in MOSFETs are Much Faster (16% per year)(Reductions in Resistance for same Current and thus Reductions in Area and Costs)
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1272514
New Materials Have Even Lower Resistance and Higher Breakdown Voltages, which Leads to Higher Current Densities
Timing for Electrification of Vehicles
It is going to happen very soon
Much faster than doubling of energy storage densities
Electrification will reduce weight of vehicle and thus necessary size of energy storage device
It will have a larger percentage impact on small than large cars
It can be another facilitator of electric vehicles
Let’s return to electric vehicles
Where improvements in power electronics are also improving the economic feasibility of charging equipment for electric vehicles
Outline IT facilitates public transportation
State of public transportation
Ticketing, routes and scheduling
GPS and buses
Bike sharing and light rail
Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
Greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density
Electrification of Vehicles
Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
Different Cities, Different Futures
Many Ways to Do Electric Vehicles
1) Electric vehicle with same range and acceleration as gasoline engines
Electric motors have similar power densities as engines
Low energy and power storage densities of batteries (and capacitors and flywheels) make this difficult to achieve
2) Use both gasoline and electric storage, i.e., hybrid
Very expensive to include both
Most users choose vehicles based on price
3) All electric but with low capacity electric storage and high density of (rapid) charging stations
Can we recharge more frequently?
With rapid charging and/or high density of charging stations?
With wired or wireless charging?
High Density of (Rapid) Charging Stations
Greater density of charging stations enables greater
frequency of battery charging and thus less battery
capacity
Fast charging can also reduce the need for battery
capacity (and need for high density of charging stations)
Both cost and speed of charging stations depend on
power electronics and their rates of improvement
Other improvements in IT also facilitate public charging
GPS enables cars to more easily find and reserve a charger
Smart payment systems and smart grids facilitate decentralized
sale of electricity and charging
Many Inefficiencies in Charging:
25.4 kWh at wall plug is reduced to 21.4 (84% efficiency)
Cost of charging station?
Rate of charging?
How much more expensive for fast charging?
Is wireless cheaper or faster?
Performance and Cost of Charging Stations
Cost of Charging Stations
http://www.driveclean.ca.gov/pev/Charging.php
$500-$3000
$12000-$15000
Will the Cost of Charging Stations Fall?Depends on the cost of power electronics and microprocessors
Microprocessor
Control Unit
Cost of Charging Stations will Fall Rapidly
Cost of power electronics (MOSFETs) fall 16% each year
Highest power also rises and thus rates of charging also rise over time
Result is both
falling costs
higher rates of charging
For example, if price of 15,000 USD charger falls 10% per year
In 10 years the cost will be 5770 USD
If 1,000,000 chargers (139,000 chargers/km2 or 0.139 chargers /m2) are need in Singapore to effectively use 100,000 electric vehicles, 5.77 Billion USD in chargers
Wireless vs. Wired Charging Advantages of Wireless
Protected connections (away from water/oxygen)
Durability (less wear and tear); Faster connections
Disadvantages
Lower efficiency/slower charging particularly as distance becomes larger than coil diameter
More expensive
Improvements in electronics are reducing the disadvantages
Eight Innovations for Successful Wireless Charging Inductive, bidirectional charging system
with 22 kilowatts and 95 percent efficiency
Position car precisely over inductive charging
station using laser scanner
Charging components integrated in
underground shaft
Cloud-based charging management
On-board unit ensures seamless
communication between fleet of shard
vehicles
Users register, personalize profiles, book a
car or charging station with phone
Cloud collects mobility-relevant data over
internet connection
Cars location known via Wi-Fi positioning
system, GPS, inertial sensors
http://www.iao.fraunhofer.de/lang-en/business-areas/mobility-and-urban-systems-engineering/1111-e-car-sharing-comes-of-age.html
Wireless chargers are also made from power and other electronics
Big Differences between Wired and Wireless is Thin Film Coils
Cables are replaced by thin film coils in both Charging stations
Vehicles
Thin film is the basis for all electronics Semiconductors, lasers, photo-sensors, magnetic storage
Liquid crystal displays. organic displays, many solar cells
And many other technologies that experience rapid improvements
Cost improvements occur as New materials are used
Substrate size is increased (already done with semiconductor wafers and liquid crystal displays)
New processes such as roll-to roll printing
If Thin Film Coils Become Cheap, charging can be done while driving
Old Style Tram with Rails New Style Car with coils
and Overhead Lines embedded in road
Continuous Charging Dramatically reduces size of battery
Increases efficiency of charging since the motor is directly charged by the coils, bypassing the battery
But construction costs will rise………
How High are Construction Costs? For Wireless and Wired Charging?
Can we find ways to reduce these costs?
Electricity cables are everywhere underground, particularly in Singapore and other dense cities
How can we connect chargers to the cables?
Place charging stations in sewers, on backs of manhole covers, or other places?
Only place them inside roads when road and other construction is being implemented?
Road construction is always being done for some reason…..
In the end, all of these new technologies require innovative methods of implementing them
Outline IT facilitates public transportation
State of public transportation
Ticketing, routes and scheduling
GPS and buses
Bike sharing and light rail
Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
Greater use of electric vehicles Energy/Power Storage Density
Electrification of Vehicles
Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
Different Cities, Different Futures
Different Cities, Different Futures
Some cities will always have more public transport than others
Some cities will have trouble increasing their usage of public transport
Some reasons include differences in:
Population density
Early investments in public vs. private transport
Spatial distribution of work and residences
Direction of commutes
But some things can be said for all cities (1)
Most cities will (and should) experience increases in public transportation because of
increases in population densities
improvements in information technologies
Public transportation is the most viable means of handling large numbers of travellers
Information technology will make it easier for people to use buses, trains, and bicycles
This will reduce energy usage and carbon emissions
But some things can be said for all cities (2)
Most cities will (and should) experience increases in automated vehicles because they
have many advantages over conventional vehicles
These advantages are particularly large when roads are dedicated to them
More cars per area of road and higher fuel efficiencies
Cities can use automated vehicles and public transportation to reduce
need for private vehicles
amount of space for roads and parking
But some things can be said for all cities (3)
Fall cost of power and other electronics means that cost of charging stations will also fall
Improvements in materials will also enable faster charging
Both will enable electric vehicles with smaller batteries and thus lighter and cheaper electric vehicles
Wireless charging may end up being the most convenient due to lower maintenance and easier connections
Conclusions Information technology is improving the economics of public transportation
is making new forms of transport possible
All of these methods require effective implementation plans and incentives
Public and private firms should be considering rates of improvement in information technology and other technologies when they think of the future for transportation
In the end, sustainability is all about designing systems that use less resources and provide overall benefits to their users Rapidly improving technologies can help do this
Implementation Requires Better Partnerships Between local governments, high tech suppliers, local
businesses, and local universities
Local universities can help cities do planning and evaluation
They can also help develop open source software for Bus GPS, shared bikes, roads dedicated to AVs, and electric vehicle charging systems
Privatization also has important role
Privatize GPS services for buses, charging stations, roads dedicated to AVs