Issues:Climate Change

Walter MendozaATREE

September 14, 2011

Equity

Modern Environment Movement

Silent Springby Rachel Carson1962

Modern Environment Movement

United Nations Conference on the Human Environment Stockholm, Sweden, 1972

Modern Environment Movement

World Commission onEnvironment andDevelopment (WCED)1983

Modern Environment Movement

Our Common Future1987

sustainable development

United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972

Modern Environment Movement

"Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

Total and per capita emissions

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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

 191 countries have ratified the Convention

recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource

it is a Framework for Intergovernmental efforts to* gather and share information

greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices

* launch national strategiesfor addressing greenhouse gas emissions and

adapting to expected impacts,* cooperate in preparing for adaptation

to the impacts of climate changeincluding the provision of financial and technological support

to developing countries

Basis

• Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries

COP1 -The Berlin Mandate 1995 

Common but Differentiated responsibilities

Developing countries refused to take up binding commitments

Two year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP)

to address the original goal of the convention - to stabilize GHG emissions by Annex 1 countries at 1990 levels by

2000

The Kyoto Protocol

It is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeThe Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement

under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective

emissions of greenhouse gasesby 5.2% compared to the year 1990

calculated as an average over the five-year period of 2008-12

The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.

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19.2420.14

1.94 2.07

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World average 4 tonnes per person per yearCan sustain 2 tonnes per person per year

As is GHG dumping

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Per capita

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contraction

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convergence

CDMs

The Clean DevelopmentMechanism

CDMs

Arrangement underthe Kyoto Protocol1997

CDMs

Allows industrialised countriesto invest in projectsthat reduce emissionsin developing countries

CDMssupervised by CDM Executive Board (CDM EB)

under the guidance of theConference of the Parties

(COP/MOP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC)

United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972

CDMs

Should be"supplemental" todomestic actions to reduce emissions

CDMs

consent ofdeveloping country hosting the projectit will contribute to sustainable development

CDMs

using methodologies approved by the CDM Executive Board (EB)establish additionalityestablish a baseline

CDMs

Certified Emission Reductions (CERs)

carbon credits

one metric tonne of CO2e

CDMs

validation&verification by Designated Operational Entity(DOE)

monitoring

Critics of the CDM • in many cases, the recipients are large,

polluting industries

• adverse environmental impacts to the communities

• Chhattisgarh - Jindal Steel and Power Limited’s notoriously polluting sponge-iron factories

• earning enormous amounts of money & environmental credibility with four separate CDM projects

http://withoutyourwalls.wordpress.com/2008/08/17/carbon-trade-off/

Hidden issues

• Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries

• Elephant in the roomincreased CO2 likely from newly industrialised countriespopulation!

The Discord

The Discord

Equity remains an ongoing struggle

Development

Development not to mean growth, but to mean how to ensure that all people have equitable: - access to energy and other natural resources– consumption levels of energy and other natural

resources– participation levels in decision making over all

issues related to energy and natural resources,

in such a manner that the eco-footprint for earth as a whole, and its various geographic regions, do not exceed their bio-capacities.

Technology the answer?1. Need to cut emissions by 80% by 2050;2. Need to peak emissions by 2015 and then cut3. New (zero-fossil) technologies are not

competitive or limited4. Will not work without changes in consumption.

Have to reduce and have to change the way we do business

Business as usual will not work. No soft answers will

work

Not a green ‘party’ but a green ‘revolution’ needed

The Hidden handThe Corporation!

It is an entity!

It has the rights of an individual

But the power, the benefits, and the freedom go to the individuals behind these entities

Role of Civil Society

today there is a divide:

International NGOs vs Third World NGOs

Policy / Advocacy NGOs vis a vis Grassroots

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Income and Capacity income distributions (relative to a “development threshold”)

Historical Contribution to Carbon Stock

• From 1850 – 2009 331 GtC• From 1970 – 2009 226 GtC

 

Contribution to Stock - 1850-2000 

(GtC)

Contribution to Stock - 2001-2009 

(GtC)

Contribution to Stock - 1850-2009 

(GtC)

Annex-I 210 35 245

Non-Annex-I 55 31 86

Total 265 66 331Entitlements to Total Carbon Space

(1850-2050)?

Carbon Space Entitlements• Per Capita Principle – Entitlements proportionate to % of

World Population % of World Population 1850 1900 1970 2000 2009

USA 1.8% 4.8% 5.7% 4.7% 4.6%

EU 13.0% 14.8% 11.8% 7.9% 7.2%

Other Annex-I 12.0% 15.8% 10.3% 7.7% 6.9%

China 32.3% 25.3% 22.1% 20.7% 19.6%

India 18.5% 18.0% 15.0% 17.0% 17.4%

Brazil 0.6% 1.1% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8%

South Africa 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%

Rest of the World 21.6% 19.8% 31.9% 38.4% 40.8%

Carbon Budget for the future• 326 GtC 50% probability of exceeding 2 deg C.• 207 GtC 25% probability of exceeding 2 deg. C.

 Entitlements - 1850-2050 (%)

Entitlements - 1850-2050 (GtC)

Contribution to Stock - 1850-2009 

(GtC)

Future Entitlements - 2010-2050

(GtC)

Annex-I 20% 133 245 -112

Non-Annex-I 80% 525 86 438

Actual Carbon Space vs. Entitlement

1850 Basis, Non-LUCF

Future Entitlements - 2010-2050 (GtC)

Potential Actual Share- 2010-2050 (TISS-DSF

Model)

Annex-I -112.02 50.18

Non-Annex-I 438.27 271.13

Total 326 321Loss of entitlement can be compensated through

technology and financial transfers

Rio + 20: Green EconomyShift of focus from:Implementation FinanceTechnology and tradeEmerging issues:

food security

Rio + 20: Green Economy3 kinds of problems:

Protection from third world imports

New conditions, standards on ‘aid’

Green economy goals: milestones on biodiversity and conservation

Institutional FrameworkShift focus to:

World Environment Organisation

(enviro focus)

World Commission on Sus Dev

Green Development Fundenviro, econ & social focus)

Demand – Supply Scenario (Electricity)

• Quick addition of low-cost coal essential considering the financial situation of the DISCOMs and to reduce tariffs (e.g. industrial tariffs 50% higher than in US, China)

• Urgent attention, structural provisions for reliable supply to poor is required: – can be met at limited C emissions, is more of an

Institutional issue (Might need to earmark low cost energy for poor)

– Large grid extension underway (RGGVY) and access improving quickly, supply situation getting better.

Development, Energy, and Climate• BAU is impractical and unsustainable. (Land, water, fuel, climate, etc)

• Era of cheap energy is over - need to be much more efficient while building infrastructure / industrialization. Relook  future type of industrialisation (development paradigm)

• Transport (avoid shift and improve) net oil import bill is 4% of GDP, largely in sync with climate and local social and pollution strategies.

• More electricity needed, but – Immediate attention to needs of poor– Earnest action for EE (> than gas, nuclear, hydro put together)– Incentivize energy saving devices and disincentivize high consuming energy use. (tariff policy)

– Long term planning for greater role of Renewables. Focused effort on reducing RE costs & manufacturing; R&D.

Once upon a time

planetary boundaries1 Climate change2 Biodiversity loss3 Biogeochemical4 Ocean acidification5 Land use6 Freshwater7 Ozone depletion8 Atmospheric aerosols9 Chemical pollution

He said

There is enough

for everyone’s NEED

but NOT

for Everyone’s GREED

Thank You for

listening