Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Issues Facing

Future Energy Systems

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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US Energy Flow – 2016

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Long-term view of fossil fuel production for years AD 0-3000

with projection for “robust” world fossil fuel scenario for years AD 1800-2500

Assumptions: EUR of 500,000 EJ for all types of fossil fuels

Projection of “long-term fossil fuel availability” scenario

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Goals for Future Energy

1. Manageable natural resource use

a. Resource extraction: fossil fuels, uranium

b. Land consumption: solar, wind

2. Minimize pollution: air, water, solid waste

3. Stabilize concentration of carbon in atmosphere

4. Reduce security threat due to energy dependency

Recommended reading:

Hoffert, M I et al (2002) “Advanced technology paths to global climate stability:

energy for a greenhouse planet” Science v298, pp.981-987.

Other readings?

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Current vs. Future Power Requirement

Today Power Generation totals about 12 TW

and is about 85% fossil fueled.

Mid-century projections are that we must have

15-30 TW capacity and must stabilize the

atmosphere at 350 – 550 ppmv CO2 Emission Free Sources

Carbon Sequestration

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Main options / main obstacle

1. Fossil energy (w/ sequestration)

obstacles?

2. Nuclear energy

obstacles?

3. Renewables

obstacles?

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Main options / main obstacle

Fossil energy Limit supply

Environmental impact of mining

Geographical distribution (some nations have

it, some don’t)

Inefficient combustion

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Main options / main obstacle

Nuclear energy Waste disposal/storage

Public perception

Water use

Access to and enrichment of fuel

Capital cost of construction

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Main options / main obstacle

Renewables Location (the sunshine and wind)

Non-dispatchable

Investment

Lower density

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Scenarios for CO2 Stabilization

Scenarios: 350, 450, 550, 650, 750 ppmv

Economic growth 2-3% per year

Sustained decline of 1%/year in energy intensity (energy use / gdp)

Current concentration ~370 ppmv (preindustrial ~260 ppmv)

Holding at 550 ppmv is a major challenge

Cuts to 450 or 350 ppmv are “Herculean”

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Geological CO2 Storage

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Carbon-free Energy from Fossil Fuels

Goal: 10-30 TW emission free capacity in 50 years

Unfortunately coal is more abundant than oil & gas

Opportunity: CO2 capture and sequestration:

Coal >> reformer >> H2 + CO2

CO2 is then sequestered

Decarbonization of coal is linked to sequestration

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Nuclear energy:

Proposed Tokamak Fusion Reactor

Courtesy of ITER Organization

• Begun in 2007

• Controlled nuclear fusion

• Traps heavy isotopes of hydrogen

in a doughnut-shaped vacuum

vessel known as a tokamak and

heat them up to 150 million °C.

• Fusion of hydrogen nuclei into

helium releases vast amounts of

energy.

• Tokamaks have existed for decades

• ITER would be first to release

substantially more energy than was put

into the hydrogen plasma.

• It is predicted to produce about 500

megawatts of electrical power.

• More than a decade behind schedule

• US support through 2018, uncertain

thereafter.

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Large-Scale PV Installations

Bavaria Solarpark

Muehlhausen, Germany, 10 MW

World’s largest in 2005

Topaz Solar Farm, 550 MW

San Luis Obispo County, CA

Largest as of November 2015

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Options for CO2-free Renewable Energy

Options: biomass, solar thermal, PV, wind, hydropower, ocean thermal, geothermal, tidal Firewood and large-scale hydro: close to saturation

Rest are presently <1% of total global power capacity

Problem: Renewables have low areal power density Biomass: ~0.6 W/m2

10 TW of Bio power requires cultivating ~ 10% of earth’s surface, which is comparable to today’s acreage supporting all human agriculture

PV & Wind energy ~ 15 W/m2 Much better but requires more “technology turnover”

Renewable Energy sources are intermittent & dispersed Requires storage or backup capacity

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Solving the Problem by

Improving Efficiency?

Some examples:

Electric generators 98-99% efficient

Electric motors 90-97% efficient

Heat engines (35-50% efficient, 2nd law applies to steam, gas)

Diesel engine 30-35%, gasoline engine 15-25%

Fuel cells 50-55% now, perhaps 70% later; H2 reformers ~ 80%

Renewables: PV: 15 to 20%; Wind turbines 30-40%

Lighting: Fluorescent lights 10-12%; Incandescent light 2-5%

Problem: many technologies either already near max efficiency, or

have limits, so efficiency alone cannot solve the problem completely

Source: F Vanek, L Albright, and L Angenent. (2012) Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation, 2nd Ed., McGraw-Hill.

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Conclusions

Current major energy sources are in finite supply and/or emit CO2 to atmosphere

Carbon-free, long-term alternatives are under development