IS WRF REALLY IMPROVING? A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Cliff Mass and...
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Transcript of IS WRF REALLY IMPROVING? A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Cliff Mass and...
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IS WRF REALLY IMPROVING?
A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
Cliff Mass and David OvensUniversity of Washington
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A lot of effort has been expended…
• We have all worked hard over the past ten years transitioning from MM5 to WRF.
• In addition, a great deal of effort has gone into improving physics parameterizations, numerics, and adding additional modeling options.
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But …• Does WRF with all its improvements verify better than
MM5 for key case studies and over extended verification periods?
• Do we even have the tools and capabilities to monitoring the evolving quality of our modeling systems?
• Is it possible that some of the “improvements” have actually detracted from modeling system skill when used with other components?
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In general, we don’t have satisfactory answers for these
questions.
• Neither NCEP nor DTC nor any national entity appears to have such information.
• We need the mechanisms and capabilities in place to evaluate and guide our model development
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What has been the results over the Pacific Northwest where much of this information is
available?
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Northwest U.S. MM5 and WRF• Real-time since 1995• Now running:
– MM5 (36-12 km) nested in NWS NAM– WRF ARW 3.0 (36-12-4 km) nested in NWS GFS– WRF currently uses Thompson microphysics, YSU PBL,
NOAH LSM, RRTM LW, Dudhia SW, K-F PBL– MM5 uses MRF PBL, K-F.
• Extensive multi-year verification on QC data.• Have run extensive tests of WRF V3.1, MM5 driven by GFS,
and a collection of varying physics, including with and without LSM
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The Analysis
• Based on this extensive series of runs, let us try to answer (for the NW) the following questions:– What have we gained by moving to WRF?– What have we lost?– What advantages can one realize from V3.1?– Is the NOAH LSM a plus or minus for the key
parameters?– Are we making progress?
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0000 UTC (5 PM) MAE, July-August 2008
With LSM
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1200 UTC (5 AM) MAE, July-August 2008
With LSM
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0000 UTC (5 PM) MAE, Jan-Feb 2009
With LSM
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1200 UTC (5 AM) MAE, Jan-Feb 2009
With LSM
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What do verification scores tell us about MM5 and WRF?
• The LSM greatly improves the dewpoint temperature forecast. So WRF with LSM is much better for dewpoint than MM5 without.
• For temperature, the LSM helps in the afternoon, but hurts in the morning.
• WRF is better than MM5 for wind direction.• For precipitation, summer is better for MM5,
winter for WRF.• Very little difference in wind speed.
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Scatter Diagrams Can Reveal the Subtleties of Model Performance
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Cold Bias
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Model Warm Bias for Cold Temps
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Model Cold Bias
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Model Warm Bias
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A National Effort for WRF Verification is Required to Guide Our Work
• We have pieces of the puzzle:• The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) is a natural center
for such activities.• Powerful verification capabilities have been developed
(Model Evaluation Tools, MET)• We need a long-term baseline of model
performance for “ best combinations” of model physics options or promising option combinations.
• DTC should take on this key responsibility as an “honest” and unbiased evaluator of model performance.
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What do verification scores tell us about WRF?
• The LSM greatly improves the dewpoint temperature forecast.
• For temperature, the LSM helps in the afternoon, but hurts in the morning.
• CAM and the new RRTMG schemes have very similar verification scores.
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PBL tests with WRF 3.1• 3 new PBL schemes (MYNN, QNSE, Pleim-Xiu) have
been tested for a stable case, 17-18 Jan 2009.– Our current scheme: YSU = Yonsei University non-local-K scheme with explicit
entrainment layer and a parabolic K profile.– MYNN = Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi and Nino Level 2.5 PBL. Predicts sub-grid
TKE terms.– QNSE = Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination PBL. A TKE-prediction option that uses
a new theory for stably stratified regions.– Pleim-Xiu = Asymmetric Convective Model with non-local upward mixing and
local downward mixing.– BouLac = Bougeault-Lacarrere PBL (new in 3.1, not yet tested) designed for use
with BEP urban model.
![Page 40: IS WRF REALLY IMPROVING? A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3e23d/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
PBL tests with WRF 3.1• The LSM is a bigger contributor to temperature
errors than the PBL schemes.– No obvious improvement has been noted. – Further tests and analysis is needed.
![Page 41: IS WRF REALLY IMPROVING? A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3e23d/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
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Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
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Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
LSM with best 2-m Temperature
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Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
![Page 46: IS WRF REALLY IMPROVING? A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3e23d/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
LSM with best 2-m Temperature
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2-m Temperatures, LSM vs no LSM
LSM No LSM
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2-m Temperatures, LSM vs no LSM
LSM No LSM
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Some Conclusions
• LSM greatly improves dewpoint temperature forecasts.
• LSM improves maximum temperature forecasts, but degrades minimum temperature forecasts.
![Page 50: IS WRF REALLY IMPROVING? A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3e23d/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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PBL tests with WRF 3.1• 3 new PBL schemes (MYNN, QNSE, Pleim-Xiu) have
been tested for a stable case, 17-18 Jan 2009.– Our current scheme: YSU = Yonsei University non-local-K scheme with explicit
entrainment layer and a parabolic K profile.– MYNN = Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi and Nino Level 2.5 PBL. Predicts sub-grid
TKE terms.– QNSE = Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination PBL. A TKE-prediction option that uses
a new theory for stably stratified regions.– Pleim-Xiu = Asymmetric Convective Model with non-local upward mixing and
local downward mixing.– BouLac = Bougeault-Lacarrere PBL (new in 3.1, not yet tested) designed for use
with BEP urban model.
![Page 55: IS WRF REALLY IMPROVING? A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3e23d/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
PBL tests with WRF 3.1• The LSM is a bigger contributor to temperature
errors than the PBL schemes.– No obvious improvement has been noted. – Further tests and analysis is needed.
![Page 56: IS WRF REALLY IMPROVING? A COMPREHENSIVE VERIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062714/56649d5e5503460f94a3e23d/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
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Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
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Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
LSM with best 2-m Temperature
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Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
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Cases without LSM compared to the case with the best 2-m temperature score.
LSM with best 2-m Temperature
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2-m Temperatures, LSM vs no LSM
LSM No LSM
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2-m Temperatures, LSM vs no LSM
LSM No LSM
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Some Conclusions
• LSM greatly improves dewpoint temperature forecasts.
• LSM improves maximum temperature forecasts, but degrades minimum temperature forecasts.
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LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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LSM No LSM
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