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![Page 1: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Is there 'White Flight' in England?
Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College
[email protected]; [email protected]://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass
twitter: @epkaufm
![Page 2: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Reduce Immigration (a little or a lot)
• 80.4% of white UK born respondents vs. 19.6% of UK-born whites who wish immigration to stay the same or increase
Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey, 2010-11, geocoded with Census 2011
![Page 3: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Reduce the number of immigrants (a lot and a little) by social class and ward diversity (aggregated dataset) for all white respondents
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
UpperMiddle Working classAll
![Page 4: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
•22 studies at ward level (population generally 10,000-30,000) : 74 percent link higher diversity to reduced animosity, just 18 percent the reverse
•43 studies using units above 100,000 population: a significant increase in out-group hostility in 86 percent of these studies
Local Contact, Metro Threat?
![Page 5: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
• Feeling of threat at metro level as minorities grow, but positive contact at local level creates accommodation
![Page 6: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Selection Bias Problem
Q: Why are whites in diverse areas more tolerant?
A: Selection bias: whites who don’t like diversity leave, a.k.a. ‘white flight’ or white avoidance
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Selection Bias?
• No one has properly tested• Test with BHPS/Understanding Society• Large sample, longitudinal, geocoded• Compare white British who enter and leave
diverse wards• Compare white British movers (enter/leave)
with those who stay• Proxy questions for attitude to immigration
![Page 8: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Simpson (2007) Method
Wards% White
Quintile 1 7554 98Quintile 2 726 87Quintile 3 288 73Quintile 4 180 57Quintile 5 102 34Total 8850 91
Diversity Seekers White Flight/Avoiders
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Quintile Change?: Same Less More Total
White stayer 119316 1596 1468 122380 90.7%
White inter-ward mover 6774 1670 1421 9865 7.3%
White intra-ward mover 2565 38 37 2640 2.0%
Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 1991-2011
![Page 10: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Simpson (2007) Method
Wards% White
Quintile 1 7554 98Quintile 2 726 87Quintile 3 288 73Quintile 4 180 57Quintile 5 102 34Total 8850 91
Diversity Seekers
•24% Tory •18% Working Class•27% Degrees •57% English Identity •46% Tabloid •44% 17-25s •50% renters •49% single •10% anti-homosexual •9% gender traditionalists
White Flight/Avoiders
•24% Tory •18% Working Class•30% Degrees •57% English Identity •56% Tabloid •32% 17-25s •26% renters •35% single •12% anti-homosexual •12% gender traditionalists
![Page 11: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Not Selection
• Whites moving to diverse areas and those leaving them are almost identical in voting, family values, English national identity, British patriotism, newspaper readership
• No direct measure of immigration opinion, but research in Sweden finds identical pattern (Hedman et. al 2012)
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Mobility?: Stayers Differ From Movers
• Swedish research shows that whites leaving diverse areas (Hedman et. al 2012) are more tolerant of immigration than whites who remain
• Our work with BHPS corroborates this: movers are more tolerant on family values and morality, whilst stayers tend to be more nationalistic and defensive of Britain’s standing in the world.
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Stayer Mover Total
Not Religious 52.9 66.6 54.2Religious 47 33.4 45.8 ***
Homosexuality wrongagree 21.5 13.8 20.8neither 36.8 29.5 36.2disagree 41.7 56.8 43 ***
Husband should earnagree 18.9 12.2 18.3disagree 52.8 64.7 54 ***
Cohabitation wrongAgree 16 7.7 15.2disagree 52 73.8 30.8 ***
Brit Citizenship is Bestagree 74.8 65.4 74neither 17 22.8 17.6disagree 8 11.7 8.4 ***
Britain has much to learn from other countriesagree 45.2 45.6 45.2neither 31.7 34.3 32disagree 23.1 20.1 22.8 **
Stayer Mover TotalManagers 19.9 21.1 20
Intermediate 42.8 45.6 43Own acc 5.8 4.7 5.7
working class 29.4 26.2 29.1
never worked 2 2.2 2.1***
17-25 8.4 29.3 10.426-35 16.2 31.7 17.736-45 19.8 16.1 19.446-54 16.5 8.6 15.855-64 15.3 6.3 14.565+ 22.4 7 21***
Con 28.8 25.2 28.5Labour 40 38 39.8Liberal 13.9 14.4 14Other 4.7 5.2 4.7none 12.6 17.1 13***
redtop 67 63.4 66.8
broadsheet 26.9 31.9 27.9***
owner 79.6 54.6 77.3social 15 15.9 15.2rented 5.3 29.5 7.5***
degree & above 10.9 18 11.6A-level 23.2 30.6 23.8O- level 31.3 33 31.4none 34.6 18.3 33***
Source: BHPS/ Understanding Society, 1991-2011
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Stayers and far right support• Harris’ work on support for the
far right in Greater London 2007-10: electoral support for the BNP stronger in wards with less in- and – outflow
• Far right support linked with white enclaves nested within more ethnically diverse areas- bifurcated relationship with diversity (Goodwin 2011, Bowyer 2008)
• Positive relationship at Local Authority (conflict) against negative at ward level (contact)
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Whites Favouring Reduced Immigration, by social class
Most Homoge
neous 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Most Dive
rse50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95UpperMiddle Working classAll
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
All Whites
White Work-ing Class
By Share of Ethnic Minorities in Ward
By Share of Recent Immigrants (less than 10 years in UK) in Ward
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Those Favouring Reduced Immigration, by class: Role of Transience
Least Renters
2 3 4 Most Renters
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
UpperMiddleWorkingBase
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Reduce Immigration a lot
• 59.7% of white UK born respondents agree
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nworkingmiddle upper working
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
-0.012
-0.01
-0.008
-0.006
-0.004
-0.002
0
Contact Effect on Opposition to Immigra-tion, by Class
t-statisticcoefficient
nworking
middleupper
working
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
-0.014
-0.012
-0.01
-0.008
-0.006
-0.004
-0.002
0
Contact Effect on 'Reduce immigration a lot', by Class
t-statisticcoefficient
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Conclusion
• Local context matters for views on immigration and vice-versa
• Whites in diverse English wards more positive about immigration
• Not because intolerant whites have self-selected out
• But in part because whites in diverse areas are more transient
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• Some support for contact theory: more in ameliorating strong opposition than in promoting acceptance of current levels
• Limited effect on white working class attitudes• White attitudes to immigration may be softened by
contact; however LA-level diversity may increase threat effect (further research will use multilevel analysis to parse this)
• Further research: 4 focus groups; expand analysis to 5 waves of Citizenship Survey
![Page 28: Is there 'White Flight' in England? Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062515/56649d225503460f949f8086/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Is there 'White Flight' in England?
Why Whites in Homogeneous English Wards Are More Opposed to Immigration
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College
[email protected]; [email protected]://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass
twitter: @epkaufm