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Is the Environment a Security Issue? Emily Meierding Department of Political Science University of...
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Is the Environment a Security Issue?
Emily Meierding
Department of Political Science
University of Chicago
Climate Insecurity?
Upper left image: National Geographic (2008).
“Climate stress may well represent a challenge to international society just as dangerous –and more intractable—than the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union during the cold war or the proliferation of nuclear weapons among rogue states today.”
--Thomas Homer-Dixon, NYT
Overview
1. Does climate change create real-world insecurity?
(empirical concern)
2. Should we call climate change a security issue? (normative concern)
The Academic Perspective
Q: Is climate change a security issue?
The Academic Perspective
Q: Is climate change a security issue?
A: Maybe. We don’t know (yet?)
Data Problems
For the most part, for environmental variables• We don’t have data at the regional level• We don’t have multiple years of national data• We don’t have data for all countries• Data were often collected in different years
Climate Change (in)Security
The Climate Change-Security Equation
Climate Change (in)Security
=
Temperature Change
The Climate Change-Security Equation
Climate Change (in)Security
=
Temperature Change
=
Civil War
The Climate Change-Security Equation
Climate Change (in)Security
=
Temperature Change
=
Civil War
?
The Climate Change-Security Equation
Causal Pathways
Rise inTemp.
CropFailure
Rebellion
Migration(urban)
Migration(rural)
Reduction in staterevenue
ViolentState
Response
Riots inover-
crowdedslums
Conflict withlocal
ethnic groups
Stateweakness
Decline insocial
services
Policeresponse
Armedintervention
by state
Coupattempts
Grievance-inducedrebellion
Previous Research
• NATO• Environment and Conflicts Project (ENCOP), led by Gunther
Baechler. • Environmental Change and Conflict Project (ECACP), led by
Thomas Homer-Dixon. Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (1999) and Ecoviolence (1998), edited by THD and Jessica Blitt
• Collapse (2005), Jared Diamond
CRITICISM:• Nils Petter Gleditsch, “Armed Conflict and the Environment: a
Critique of the Literature” (1998) Journal of Peace Research.
Causal Pathways
Rise inTemp.
CropFailure
Rebellion
Migration(urban)
Migration(rural)
Reduction in staterevenue
ViolentState
Response
Riots inover-
crowdedslums
Conflict withlocal
ethnic groups
Stateweakness
Decline insocial
services
Policeresponse
Armedintervention
by state
Coupattempts
Grievance-inducedrebellion
Security: of What and for Whom?
Conventional View: National Military Security
New Perspectives:• 1970s: Economic Security, Energy Security• 1980s: Food Security• 1987: Human Security, The Brundtland Report
“Redefining Security” to include the environment• Lester Brown (1977)• Jessica Tuchman Mathews (1989)
The Language of Security
PROS CONS
The Language of Security
• Heightened sense of importance
PROS CONS
The Language of Security
• Heightened sense of importance
• More $$$
PROS CONS
The Language of Security
• Heightened sense of importance
• More $$$• Increases popular
mobilization
PROS CONS
The Language of Security
• Heightened sense of importance
• More $$$• Increases popular
mobilization• Promotes solidarity
PROS CONS
The Language of Security
• Heightened sense of importance
• More $$$• Increases popular
mobilization• Promotes solidarity
• Burnout
PROS CONS
The Language of Security
• Heightened sense of importance
• More $$$• Increases popular
mobilization• Promotes solidarity
• Burnout• Bad fit
PROS CONS
The Language of Security
• Heightened sense of importance
• More $$$• Increases popular
mobilization• Promotes solidarity
• Burnout• Bad fit• Military polluters
PROS CONS
The Language of Security
• Heightened sense of importance
• More $$$• Increases popular
mobilization• Promotes solidarity
• Burnout• Bad fit• Military polluters• Us vs. them thinking
PROS CONS
The Language of Security
• Heightened sense of importance
• More $$$• Increases popular
mobilization• Promotes solidarity
• Burnout• Bad fit• Military polluters• Us vs. them thinking• Empowers nasty
regimes
PROS CONS
Alternative Frameworks
• Agricultural issue• Economic Development issue• Governance issue• Human Rights/ Social Justice issue
