IS JUDGING RISK, A RISK?Should consideration be given to the risk

analysis result of a project?

JUDGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING49001 AUTUMN SEMESTER 2006

ASSIGNMENT 2

GROUP MEMBERS:

•MOHAPATRA SHASANK 10403879

•SINGH RUPINA 10414769

•CHANPURA BHOOMI 10414643

I hold it true, whate'er befall;

I feel it, when I sorrow most;

'Tis better to have loved and lost

Than never to have loved at all.

- Alfred Tennyson

It is better to have enough ideas for some of them to be wrong, than to be always right by having no ideas at all.

- Edward de Bono

"People cannot discover new lands until they have the courage to lose sight of the shore" -- Andre Gide

TAJ MAHAL

•Inconsequential risk assessment.

•500 million USD.

•22 years and innumerable man hours.

•Downfall of the Mughal empire.

SYDNEY OPERA HOUSE

•Economic, political and technical risks detected.

•Estimated cost:7 million AUD; Original cost: 102 m AUD

•Estimated d/l : Jan 1963 ; Actually completed: Oct 1973

•Technical disaster; “Malice In Blunderland”

RISK BASED DECISION MAKING MIGHT DISSUADE BENEFICIAL PROJECTS.

•EXCEPTIONS ARE INEVITABLE

•THREAT TO MANKIND

•THREAT TO ENVIRONMENT

•GIVES IDEA OF POTENTIAL RISKS

•DEVISE METHODS OF COUNTERING HAZARDS

•LOW MARGIN OF ERROR WHEN FUTURE OF THE PLANET IS AT STAKE.

COUNTERING PROS:COUNTERING PROS:

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

RISK MANAGEMENT IS INDISPENSABLERISK MANAGEMENT IS INDISPENSABLE RISK BASED BUT NOT BIASEDRISK BASED BUT NOT BIASED OPTIMUM PRIORITY TO RISK ANALYSIS OPTIMUM PRIORITY TO RISK ANALYSIS

RESULTSRESULTS PRUDENCE PREVAILS WHILE DECISION PRUDENCE PREVAILS WHILE DECISION

MAKINGMAKING