is china threat to india?
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Transcript of is china threat to india?
IS CHINA
A THREAT TO INDIA
Presented by:Abdul Hameed 01Honey Balani 03Manish Kamble 16 Rahul Pillai 38Dhiraj Vinaykia 59
ECONOMY OF INDIA
Market based system
Foreign trade and foreign investment as integral part if Indian economy
Fastest growing economy
World’s second largest labor force
ECONOMY OF CHINA
Centrally planned Economy
Private businesses and capitalism were suppressed
Privatization of Farmland
Promotion of foreign investment
Flourishing small scale entrepreneurs
50 yrs ago, India and China were among the poorest and economically most isolated countries in the
world.
How did China and India emerge as economic giants?
What are India & China famous for today?
Call centers &
computer engineers
Low-priced consumer goods
GDP – real growth rate:
9.8% (2008) country comparison to the world:13% (2007)11.6% (2006)
GDP-Per capita (PPP-Purchasing power parity):
$6,000 (2008)country comparison to the world:$5,500 (2007)$4,900 (2006)note: data are in 2008 US dollars
GDP – composition by sector:
agriculture: 10.6%industry: 49.2%services: 40.2% (2008)
China – Economic Fact Sheet
India – Economic Fact SheetGDP- real growth rate: 6.6% (2008) 9% (2007) 9.6% (2006)
GDP – per capita (PPP – Purchasing power parity)$2,800 (2008) $2,700 (2007)$2,500 (2006)note: data are in 2008 US dollars
GDP – Composition by sector:agriculture: 17.2%industry: 29.1%services: 53.7% (2008)
Comparing India and China’s Growth Stories
Indicators India ChinaPolitical System
Multi-party Democracy
One-party authoritarian rule
Speed of Growth
Economic reforms started in 1991. Average 6% growth rate in past two decades.
Economic reforms started in 1978. Average 9.5% growth rate in past two decades.
Areas of Specialization
Rising power in software, design, services, and precision industry.
Dominant in mass manufacturing, electronics and heavy industrial plants
Comparing India and China’s Growth Stories
Indicators India ChinaGini index (standard measure of inequality)
36.8
47.0 (up 10 points from 15
yrs ago)
Foreign Direct Investment
6.8% (up from 0.3% in 2004)
17.8%
Future Areas of growth
R&D, bio-technology, high-value IT enabled services (legal, medical, engineering architecture), manufacturing, agro-based industry
IT business, services and continued manufacturing
Agriculture Sector
Indian AgricultureIndia is an agricultural country.Growth of service sector is pushing down the contribution of agriculture.Contributing 17.2% of the GDP. Largely depends on monsoon.Provides employment to two-thirds of the total population.15% of export earningsRural women play a vital role, 50% of rural labor force. Yields per hectare of crops in India are very low
13.1 : India's Imports and Exports of Agricultural Commodities vis-à-vis
Total National Imports/ Exports During 1990-91 to 2007-08
(Value in Rupees
Crore)
Year Agriculture Total National %age Agriculture Agriculture Total National %age Agriculture
Imports Imports Imports to Total Exports Exports Exports to Total
National Imports National Exports
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1990-91 1205.86 43170.82 2.79 6012.76 32527.28 18.49
1991-92 1478.27 47850.84 3.09 7838.04 44041.81 17.80
1992-93 2876.25 63374.52 4.54 9040.30 53688.26 16.84
1993-94 2327.33 73101.01 3.18 12586.55 69748.85 18.05
1994-95 5937.21 89970.70 6.60 13222.76 82673.40 15.99
1995-96 5890.10 122678.14 4.80 20397.74 106353.35 19.18
1996-97 6612.60 138919.88 4.76 24161.29 118817.32 20.33
1997-98 8784.19 154176.29 5.70 24832.45 130100.64 19.09
1998-99 14566.48 178331.69 8.17 25510.64 139751.77 18.25
1999-00 16066.73 215528.53 7.45 25313.66 159095.20 15.91
2000-01 12086.23 228306.64 5.29 28657.37 201356.45 14.23
2001-02 16256.61 245199.72 6.63 29728.61 209017.97 14.22
2002-03 17608.83 297205.87 5.92 34653.94 255137.28 13.58
2003-04 21972.68 359107.66 6.12 37266.52 293366.75 12.70
2004-05 22811.84 501064.54 4.55 41602.65 375339.53 11.08
2005-06 21499.22 660408.90 3.26 49216.96 456417.86 10.78
2006-07 29637.86 840506.31 3.53 62411.42 571779.28 10.92
2007-08(P) 29777.01 964849.76 3.09 77769.71 640172.14 12.15
P Provisional
Source : DGCI&S, Ministry of Commerce, Kolkata.
ChinaAgriculture accounted for 10.6 % of the GDP33o million- over 45% of labor force still makes living from farming.Farming methods have been improved in China.China produces wheat, rice, potatoes, peanuts, millet, cotton.Only 15 percent of the total land available in China can be cultivated.more than 75 percent of the total cultivated land is used for producing food crops.
Variety 1949 1978 2005
grain 11,318 30,477 50,839
cotton 44.4 216.7 383.1
oil-bearing crops 256.4 521.8 2,601.2
sugarcane 264.2 2,111.6 7,470
sugarbeet 19.1 270.2 864
flue-cured tobacco
4.3 105.2 218.5
tea 4.1 26.8 67.6
fruit 120.0 657.0 6,237.6
meat 220.0 856.3 5,960.9
aquatic products 45 466 4,122
Increases in Output of Major Agricultural Products(10,000 tons)
Variety 1949 1978 2005
grain 11,318 30,477 50,839
cotton 44.4 216.7 383.1
oil-bearing crops 256.4 521.8 2,601.2
sugarcane 264.2 2,111.6 7,470
sugarbeet 19.1 270.2 864
flue-cured tobacco
4.3 105.2 218.5
tea 4.1 26.8 67.6
fruit 120.0 657.0 6,237.6
meat 220.0 856.3 5,960.9
aquatic products 45 466 4,122
Increases in Output of Major Agricultural Products(10,000 tons)
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
India’s Manufacturing SectorManufacturing contributes around 15% of GDP of the country.According to CSO data quartely estimate of GDP for manufacturing stood at 38.1 billion US $.According to the data the cumulative growth in manufacturing index for April-June has been 3.2%.In the manufacturing sector the value of new project announced in 2nd half of 2008-09 stood at 13.2 billion US $.
India’s Manufacturing SectorIndia rank’s among top 12 producers of manufacturing value added products.In Textile it ranks 4th after China, US & Italy.In Electrical machinery & apparatus India ranks 5th. India holds 6th position in basic metals category.7th in Chemicals & chemicals products, 10th in leather & leather products, 12th in machinery & equipment & motor vehicals.
India’s Manufacturing SectorAccording to CSO the industrial output clocked an annual growth rate of 6.8% in July 2009.There are many Companies who wants to make India as their manufacturing hub, they are LG wants to make India its global manufacturing hub for its mobile handsets. Hyundai has make India the manufacturing & exporting hub for its small cars. Their i10 is being manufactured only in India & exported to the world.
India’s Manufacturing SectorLuxury brands like Louis Vuitton are looking at India as a manufacturing base for their products.Skoda Auto plans to make India its regional manufacturing hub. Aircraft manufacturing Airbus is considering India as one of the centres for design & development of its long haul A350 plane.Samsung plans to invest 100 million US $ in its manufacturing plant near Chennai & make it its global hub.
India’s Manufacturing Sector
Suzuki too is making India its manufacturing hub for its small cars. According to Investment Commission of India the manufacturing sector is estimated to have 180 billion US $ investment opportunity over next 5 years.Manufacturing sector is the largest employer which employes 25.5 million people of the total workforce.Employment growth rate is 2.78%
China’s Manufacturing SectorChinese manufacturing sector accounts for 43% of Chinese economy.Its economy growth in average of almost 8% every year.Chinese manufacturing sector ranks 4th in the world after US, Japan, & Germany.
China’s Manufacturing SectorChina’s fast growing domestic market worldwide demand for Chinese goods & the cost advantage China offers to manufacturers are fueling the growth of manufacturing sector in China.Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) which measures manufacturing activity nationwide.PMI index rose to 54 points in August up from 53.3 in July.
China’s Manufacturing SectorChina has 50% share of worldwide camera market. & 30% of Air conditioners .
25% of Washing Machines & 20% of Refrigerators.
China’s crude steel production rose by 28.25%.
Investment in chemical industry grew by 35.9%.
SERVICE SECTOR
Can be classified into 2 types:Old New
Old Services includes:Petty Trading Domestic Services Catering and Hotel Services
New Services includes:CommunicationsBusiness and legal practicesCulture, research and education.
INDIA v/s China
INDIA CHINA
54 per cent of GDP Below 41 per cent of GDP
Since 1978 to 2008 :Average Annual Growth rate is 7.0% Average Annual Growth rate is 10.8%
Employment Opportunities : Low High
Most advanced service sector :Delhi with a GDP share of 77 per cent Beijing with a GDP share of 61 per
cent
A net exporter of services A net importer of services
GDP shares by sector in China and India
Composition of Service Sector GDP %
Service Sectors China India Australia
Korea
Japan UK US
Finance and Insurance 16.50 13.27 11.83 15.53 9.78 6.89 10.35
Government and Social Organizations
8.01 10.78 6.06 10.47 6.72 6.62 10.35
Real Estate 6.07 11.64 29.15 22.34 30.66 32.16 30.92
Wholesale, Retail Trade and Catering
23.57 30.39 19.15 17.98 18.54 20.81 20.05
Transport, Telecommunications etc
16.96 19.18 12.11 13.09 8.91 10.00 7.89
Transport and Storage 8.76 10.86
Post and Telecommunications
8.20 8.32
Education, Health, Research etc
28.87 14.73 21.69 20.59 25.40 23.51 20.44
Education, Culture and Arts
8.71 7.98
Health, Sports and Social Welfare
2.96 2.14
Scientific Research and Polytechnic
2.25 0.89
Others 14.95 3.71
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Service Sector Share over Total GDP
Economic Structure and Level of Development
CURRENCIES INDIA CHINA
History of Exchange rate
Year 1 INR = CYN
% Change
1 USD = INR
% Change
I USD = CYN
% Change
2000 0.1910 43.55 8.2798
2001 0.1774 (7.12) 46.75 7.34 8.2773 (0.20)
2002 0.1714 (3.38) 48.28 7.15 8.2766 (0.20)
2003 0.1723 0.52 48.05 (0.47) 8.28 0.40
2004 0.1817 5.45 45.55 (5.20) 8.2767 (0.40)
2005 0.1912 5.22 43.35 (4.83) 8.2765 0.00
2006 0.1796 (6.06) 44.92 3.62 8.0702 (2.50)
2007 0.1764 (1.78) 44.24 (1.51) 7.8051 (3.28)
2008 0.1853 5.04 39.26 (11.08) 7.2755 (6.78)
2009 0.1409 (23.96) 48.41 23.30 6.8225 (6.22)
FOREX RESERVESThe forex reserves of the Republic of China amounted to US$332.24 bn at the end of Sep’09, showing an increase of US$6.82 bn from the previous month. The main factors responsible for the increase are: 1. The EUR, JPY and other major currencies appreciated against the US dollar. Foreign exchange reserves denominated in these currencies were worth more in terms of the base currency, the US dollar.2. Returns from foreign exchange reserves management.
Interest RatesEFFECTIVE DATE OF CHANGE DISCOUNT ACCOMMODATIONS
WITH COLLATERAL
ACCOMMODATIONS WITHOUT COLLATERAL
2009-02-19 1.25 1.625 3.5
2009-01-08 1.500 1.875 3.750
2008-12-12 2 2.375 4.25
2008-11-10 2.75 3.125 5
2008-10-30 3 3.375 5.25
2008-10-09 3.25 3.625 5.5
2008-09-26 3.5 3.875 5.75
2008-06-27 3.625 4 5.875
2008-03-28 3.5 3.875 5.75
2007-12-21 3.375 3.75 5.625
2007-09-21 3.25 3.625 5.5
2007-06-22 3.125 3.5 5.375
2007-03-30 2.875 3.25 5.125
2006-12-29 2.75 3.125 5
2006-09-29 2.625 3 4.875
INDIA AND CHINA IN 2020
According to a recent report from international economic think tanks, India and China soon plans to form a trade coalition in Asia and that is projected to boost 65% of world trade by near 2020.Both the countries India and China are determined to achieve that and create a huge impact on world economic bodies.
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