IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3
1389
A risk-based decision-making game relevant to water management. Try it yourself! 2013. This game was prepared by Louise Crochemore (IRSTEA), Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF), Schalk Jan van Andel (UNESCO-IHE), Maria-Helena Ramos (IRSTEA) and Andy Wood (NOAA). If you use this game, the authors would be grateful for feedback on your usage and results so as to help improve future versions of the game and justify further development efforts. Special thanks to Kevin Werner (NWS), a key designer of the original game on which this one is based. Contact: [email protected] This game is part of HEPEX activities: www.hepex.org START General instructions: use full screen mode. Always click on the appropriate links in each slide. Do not use Page Up, Page Down or arrow keys for scrolling.
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Transcript of IRSTEA - june 2013 - annex 3
A risk-based decision-making
game relevant to water
management.
Try it yourself!
2013. This game was prepared by Louise Crochemore (IRSTEA), Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF),
Schalk Jan van Andel (UNESCO-IHE), Maria-Helena Ramos (IRSTEA) and Andy Wood (NOAA).
If you use this game, the authors would be grateful for feedback on your usage and results so as to
help improve future versions of the game and justify further development efforts. Special thanks to
Kevin Werner (NWS), a key designer of the original game on which this one is based.
Contact: [email protected]
This game is part of HEPEX activities: www.hepex.org START
General instructions: use full screen mode. Always click on the appropriate links in each slide.
Do not use Page Up, Page Down or arrow keys for scrolling.
1
You are the newly appointed water manager for Lake Dual
It is a reservoir that serves two primary functions:
1. Water supply for Swof Town
2. Flood control for Safe Town
Water management game: instructions
Water Supply
Flood Control
Swof Town
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
NEXT
2
Water management game: instructions
1. Swof Town: would like to see the reservoir full on August 1st (500 Mm3)
so that its residents can count on water all summer.
2. Safe Town: residents are interested in keeping releases below 60 Mm3
each month (anything more causes flood damage to their homes)
Water Supply
Flood Control
Swof Town
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
NEXT
3
Water management game: instructions
You are going to be the water manager for Lake Dual during the season
running from April to August:
- you will be presented with probabilistic forecasts of inflows, and
- at the beginning of each month you have to decide on the reservoir
releases for the remaining months.
Water Supply
Flood Control
Swof Town
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
NEXT
4
Water management game: remember!
your aim is to have the reservoir level as close as possible to 500 Mm3 on
August 1st, but you can never exceed this level.
You have to maintain a minimum release of 15 Mm3 for environmental flow and
your maximum release cannot exceed 60 Mm3.
If you fail to meet these constraints, you will be fired! The WINNER of the game is
the manager that has the highest level on August 1st (but < 500 Mm3)
Water Supply
Flood Control
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
Swof Town
NEXT
5
Water management game: worksheet
You have a worksheet to mark your decisions!
Remember to return it after the game!
NOW LET’S DO AN EXAMPLE BEFORE WE START !
NEXT
6
Its March 1st:
this is the probabilistic forecast of inflows
issued on March 1st for the next months
Water management game: example
NEXT
7
You have to decide on your releases for all the next months…
Mark the releases in your worksheet!
Water management game: example
NEXT
8
Water management game: example
At the end of the month, you will be informed of the actual inflow
And you can update your reservoir volume for the next month
NEXT
9
Water management game: example
Update your worksheet and check if you still have a job!
You’re ready to go to the next forecast and decision
NEXT
10
Water management game: let’s play!
To represent the group….
We need a VOLUNTEER !
Who in the room?
Worksheets shall be used to indicate your own releases
NEXT
11
Water management game: let’s play!
Water Supply
Flood Control
Swof Town
Safe Town
Reservoir
“Lake Dual”
Game Start
12
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
14
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
15
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
16
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
17
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
18
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
19
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
20
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
21
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
22
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
23
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 519 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
24
Previous decisions: A A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 519 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
25
Previous decisions: A A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
26
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
27
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
519 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 481 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
28
Previous decisions: A A A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
29
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
31
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
32
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
33
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
34
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
35
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
36
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
37
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
38
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
39
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
40
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
41
Previous decisions: B A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
42
Previous decisions: B A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
43
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
44
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 463 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
45
Previous decisions: B A A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
46
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
47
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
48
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
49
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
50
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
51
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
52
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
53
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
54
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
55
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
56
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
57
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 539 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
58
Previous decisions: C A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 539 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
59
Previous decisions: C A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
60
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
61
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
539 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
62
Previous decisions: C A A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
63
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
64
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
65
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
66
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
67
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
68
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
69
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
70
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
71
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
72
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
73
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
74
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 533 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
75
Previous decisions: A B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 533 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
76
Previous decisions: A B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
77
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
78
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
533 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 495 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
79
Previous decisions: A B A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
80
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
81
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
82
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
83
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
84
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
85
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
86
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
87
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
88
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
89
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
90
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
91
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
92
Previous decisions: B B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 515 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
93
Previous decisions: B B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
94
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
95
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
515 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 477 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
96
Previous decisions: B B A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
97
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
98
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
99
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
100
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
101
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
102
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
103
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
104
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
105
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
106
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
107
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
108
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 553 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
109
Previous decisions: C B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 553 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
110
Previous decisions: C B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
111
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
112
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
553 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
113
Previous decisions: C B A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
114
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
115
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
116
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
117
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
118
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
119
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
120
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
121
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
122
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
123
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
124
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
125
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 552 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
126
Previous decisions: A C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 552 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
127
Previous decisions: A C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
128
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
129
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
552 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 514 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
130
Previous decisions: A C A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
131
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
132
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
133
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
134
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
135
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
136
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
137
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
138
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
139
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
140
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
141
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
142
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
143
Previous decisions: B C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 534 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
144
Previous decisions: B C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
145
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
146
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
534 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 496 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
147
Previous decisions: B C A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
148
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
149
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
150
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
151
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
152
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
153
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
154
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
155
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
156
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
157
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
158
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
159
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 572 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
160
Previous decisions: C C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 572 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
161
Previous decisions: C C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
162
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
163
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
572 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
164
Previous decisions: C C A A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
165
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
166
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
167
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
168
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
169
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
170
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
171
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
172
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
173
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
174
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
175
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
176
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 487 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
177
Previous decisions: A A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 487 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
178
Previous decisions: A A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
179
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
180
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
487 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 449 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
181
Previous decisions: A A B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
182
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
183
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
184
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
185
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
186
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
187
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
188
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
189
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
190
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
191
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
192
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
193
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
194
Previous decisions: B A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 469 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
195
Previous decisions: B A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
196
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
197
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
469 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
198
Previous decisions: B A B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
199
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
201
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
202
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
203
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
204
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
205
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
206
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
207
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
208
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
209
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
210
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 507 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
211
Previous decisions: C A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 507 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
212
Previous decisions: C A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
213
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
214
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
507 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
215
Previous decisions: C A B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
216
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
217
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
218
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
219
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
220
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
221
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
222
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
223
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
224
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
225
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
226
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
227
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
228
Previous decisions: A B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
229
Previous decisions: A B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
230
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
231
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 463 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
232
Previous decisions: A B B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
233
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
234
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
235
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
236
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
237
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
238
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
239
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
240
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
241
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
242
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
243
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
244
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
245
Previous decisions: B B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 483 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
246
Previous decisions: B B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
247
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
248
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
483 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 445 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
249
Previous decisions: B B B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
250
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
251
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
252
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
253
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
254
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
255
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
256
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
257
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
258
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
259
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
260
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
261
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 521 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
262
Previous decisions: C B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 521 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
263
Previous decisions: C B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
264
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
265
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
521 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
266
Previous decisions: C B B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
267
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
268
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
269
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
270
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
271
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
272
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
273
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
274
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
275
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
276
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
277
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
278
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 520 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
279
Previous decisions: A C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 520 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
280
Previous decisions: A C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
281
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
282
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
520 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 482 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
283
Previous decisions: A C B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
284
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
285
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
286
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
287
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
288
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
289
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
290
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
291
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
292
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
293
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
294
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
295
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
296
Previous decisions: B C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
297
Previous decisions: B C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
298
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
299
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 464 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
300
Previous decisions: B C B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
301
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
302
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
303
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
304
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
305
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
306
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
307
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
308
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
309
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
310
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
311
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
312
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 540 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
313
Previous decisions: C C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 540 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
314
Previous decisions: C C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
315
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
316
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
540 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
317
Previous decisions: C C B A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
318
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
319
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
320
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
321
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
322
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
323
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
324
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
325
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
326
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
327
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
328
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
329
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
330
Previous decisions: A A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
331
Previous decisions: A A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
332
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
333
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 464 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
334
Previous decisions: A A C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
335
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
336
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
337
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
338
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
339
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
340
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
341
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
342
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
343
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
344
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
345
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
346
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
347
Previous decisions: B A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 484 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
348
Previous decisions: B A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
349
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
350
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
484 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 446 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
351
Previous decisions: B A C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
352
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
353
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
354
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
355
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
356
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
357
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
358
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
359
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
360
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
361
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
362
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
363
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 522 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
364
Previous decisions: C A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 522 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
365
Previous decisions: C A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
366
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
367
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
522 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
368
Previous decisions: C A C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
369
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
370
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
371
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
372
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
373
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
374
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
375
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
376
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
377
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
378
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
379
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
380
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
381
Previous decisions: A B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 516 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
382
Previous decisions: A B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
383
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
384
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
516 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 478 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
385
Previous decisions: A B C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
386
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
387
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
388
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
389
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
390
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
391
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
392
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
393
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
394
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
395
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
396
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
397
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
398
Previous decisions: B B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 498 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
399
Previous decisions: B B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
400
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
401
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
498 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
402
Previous decisions: B B C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
403
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
404
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
405
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
406
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
407
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
408
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
409
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
410
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
411
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
412
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
413
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
414
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 536 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
415
Previous decisions: C B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 536 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
416
Previous decisions: C B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
417
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
418
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
536 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
419
Previous decisions: C B C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
420
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
421
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
422
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
423
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
424
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
425
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
426
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
427
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
428
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
429
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
430
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
431
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 535 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
432
Previous decisions: A C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 535 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
433
Previous decisions: A C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
434
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
435
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
535 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 497 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
436
Previous decisions: A C C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
437
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
438
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
439
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
440
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
441
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
442
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
443
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
444
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
445
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
446
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
447
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
448
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
449
Previous decisions: B C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 517 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
450
Previous decisions: B C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
451
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
452
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
517 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 479 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
453
Previous decisions: B C C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
454
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
455
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
456
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
457
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
458
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
459
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
460
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
461
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
462
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
463
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
464
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
465
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 555 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
466
Previous decisions: C C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 555 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
467
Previous decisions: C C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
468
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
469
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
555 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
470
Previous decisions: C C C A
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
471
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
472
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
473
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
474
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
475
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
476
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
477
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
478
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
479
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
480
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
481
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
482
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 519 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
483
Previous decisions: A A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 519 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
484
Previous decisions: A A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
485
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
486
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
519 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
487
Previous decisions: A A A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
488
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
489
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
490
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
491
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
492
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
493
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
494
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
495
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
496
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
497
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
498
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
499
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
500
Previous decisions: B A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
501
Previous decisions: B A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
502
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
503
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
504
Previous decisions: B A A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
505
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
506
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
507
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
508
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
509
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
510
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
511
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
512
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
513
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
514
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
515
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
516
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 539 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
517
Previous decisions: C A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 539 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
518
Previous decisions: C A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
519
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
520
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
539 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 536 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
521
Previous decisions: C A A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
522
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
523
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
524
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
525
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
526
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
527
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
528
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
529
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
530
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
531
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
532
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
533
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 533 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
534
Previous decisions: A B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 533 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
535
Previous decisions: A B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
536
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
537
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
533 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 530 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
538
Previous decisions: A B A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
539
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
540
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
541
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
542
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
543
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
544
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
545
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
546
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
547
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
548
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
549
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
550
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
551
Previous decisions: B B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 515 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
552
Previous decisions: B B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
553
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
554
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
515 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 512 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
555
Previous decisions: B B A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
556
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
557
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
558
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
559
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
560
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
561
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
562
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
563
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
564
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
565
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
566
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
567
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 553 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
568
Previous decisions: C B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 553 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
569
Previous decisions: C B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
570
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
571
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
553 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 550 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
572
Previous decisions: C B A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
573
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
574
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
575
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
576
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
577
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
578
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
579
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
580
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
581
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
582
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
583
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
584
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 552 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
585
Previous decisions: A C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 552 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
586
Previous decisions: A C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
587
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
588
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
552 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 549 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
589
Previous decisions: A C A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
590
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
591
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
592
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
593
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
594
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
595
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
596
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
597
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
598
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
599
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
600
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
601
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
602
Previous decisions: B C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 534 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
603
Previous decisions: B C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
604
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
605
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
534 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 531 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
606
Previous decisions: B C A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
607
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
608
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
609
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
610
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
611
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
612
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
613
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
614
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
615
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
616
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
617
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
618
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 572 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
619
Previous decisions: C C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 572 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
620
Previous decisions: C C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
621
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
622
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
572 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 569 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
623
Previous decisions: C C A B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
624
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
625
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
626
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
627
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
628
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
629
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
630
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
631
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
632
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
633
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
634
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
635
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 487 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
636
Previous decisions: A A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 487 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
637
Previous decisions: A A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
638
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
639
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
487 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
640
Previous decisions: A A B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
641
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
642
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
643
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
644
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
645
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
646
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
647
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
648
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
649
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
650
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
651
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
652
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
653
Previous decisions: B A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 469 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
654
Previous decisions: B A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
655
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
656
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
469 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 466 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
657
Previous decisions: B A B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
658
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
659
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
660
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
661
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
662
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
663
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
664
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
665
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
666
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
667
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
668
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
669
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 507 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
670
Previous decisions: C A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 507 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
671
Previous decisions: C A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
672
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
673
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
507 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 504 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
674
Previous decisions: C A B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
675
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
676
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
677
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
678
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
679
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
680
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
681
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
682
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
683
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
684
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
685
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
686
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
687
Previous decisions: A B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
688
Previous decisions: A B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
689
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
690
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
691
Previous decisions: A B B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
692
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
693
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
694
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
695
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
696
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
697
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
698
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
699
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
700
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
701
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
702
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
703
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
704
Previous decisions: B B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 483 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
705
Previous decisions: B B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
706
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
707
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
483 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
708
Previous decisions: B B B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
709
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
710
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
711
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
712
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
713
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
714
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
715
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
716
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
717
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
718
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
719
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
720
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 521 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
721
Previous decisions: C B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 521 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
722
Previous decisions: C B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
723
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
724
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
521 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 518 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
725
Previous decisions: C B B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
726
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
727
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
728
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
729
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
730
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
731
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
732
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
733
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
734
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
735
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
736
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
737
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 520 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
738
Previous decisions: A C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 520 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
739
Previous decisions: A C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
740
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
741
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
520 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
742
Previous decisions: A C B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
743
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
744
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
745
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
746
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
747
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
748
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
749
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
750
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
751
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
752
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
753
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
754
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
755
Previous decisions: B C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
756
Previous decisions: B C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
757
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
758
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 499 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
759
Previous decisions: B C B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
760
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
761
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
762
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
763
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
764
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
765
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
766
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
767
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
768
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
769
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
770
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
771
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 540 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
772
Previous decisions: C C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 540 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
773
Previous decisions: C C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
774
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
775
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
540 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 537 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
776
Previous decisions: C C B B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
777
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
778
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
779
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
780
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
781
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
782
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
783
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
784
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
785
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
786
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
787
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
788
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
789
Previous decisions: A A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
790
Previous decisions: A A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
791
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
792
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 499 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
793
Previous decisions: A A C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
794
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
795
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
796
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
797
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
798
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
799
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
800
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
801
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
802
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
803
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
804
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
805
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
806
Previous decisions: B A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 484 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
807
Previous decisions: B A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
808
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
809
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
484 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 481 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
810
Previous decisions: B A C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
811
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
812
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
813
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
814
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
815
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
816
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
817
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
818
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
819
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
820
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
821
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
822
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 522 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
823
Previous decisions: C A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 522 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
824
Previous decisions: C A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
825
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
826
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
522 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 519 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
827
Previous decisions: C A C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
828
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
829
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
830
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
831
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
832
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
833
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
834
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
835
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
836
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
837
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
838
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
839
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
840
Previous decisions: A B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 516 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
841
Previous decisions: A B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
842
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
843
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
516 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 513 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
844
Previous decisions: A B C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
845
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
846
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
847
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
848
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
849
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
850
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
851
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
852
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
853
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
854
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
855
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
856
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
857
Previous decisions: B B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 498 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
858
Previous decisions: B B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
859
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
860
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
498 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 495 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
861
Previous decisions: B B C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
862
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
863
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
864
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
865
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
866
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
867
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
868
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
869
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
870
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
871
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
872
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
873
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 536 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
874
Previous decisions: C B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 536 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
875
Previous decisions: C B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
876
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
877
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
536 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 533 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
878
Previous decisions: C B C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
879
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
880
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
881
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
882
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
883
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
884
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
885
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
886
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
887
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
888
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
889
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
890
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 535 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
891
Previous decisions: A C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 535 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
892
Previous decisions: A C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
893
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
894
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
535 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 532 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
895
Previous decisions: A C C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
896
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
897
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
898
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
899
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
900
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
901
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
902
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
903
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
904
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
905
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
906
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
907
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
908
Previous decisions: B C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 517 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
909
Previous decisions: B C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
910
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
911
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
517 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 514 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
912
Previous decisions: B C C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
913
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
914
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
915
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
916
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
917
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
918
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
919
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
920
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
921
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
922
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
923
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
924
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 555 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
925
Previous decisions: C C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 555 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
926
Previous decisions: C C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
927
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
928
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 25 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
555 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -25 Mm3 = 552 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
929
Previous decisions: C C C B
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●● ●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
930
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
931
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
932
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
933
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
934
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
935
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
936
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
937
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
938
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
939
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
940
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
941
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 519 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
942
Previous decisions: A A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 519 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
943
Previous decisions: A A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
944
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
945
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
519 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
946
Previous decisions: A A A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
947
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
948
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
949
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
950
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
951
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
952
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
953
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
954
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
955
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
956
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
957
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
958
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
959
Previous decisions: B A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
960
Previous decisions: B A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
961
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
962
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
963
Previous decisions: B A A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
964
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
965
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
966
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
967
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
968
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
969
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
970
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
971
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
972
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
973
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
974
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
975
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 539 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
976
Previous decisions: C A A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 539 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
977
Previous decisions: C A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
978
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
979
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
539 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 521 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
980
Previous decisions: C A A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
981
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
982
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
983
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
984
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
985
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
986
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
987
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
988
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
989
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
990
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
991
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
992
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 533 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
993
Previous decisions: A B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 533 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
994
Previous decisions: A B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
995
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
996
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
533 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
997
Previous decisions: A B A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
998
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
999
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1000
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1001
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1002
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1003
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1004
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1005
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1006
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1007
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1008
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1009
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 515 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1010
Previous decisions: B B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 515 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1011
Previous decisions: B B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1012
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1013
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
515 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 497 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1014
Previous decisions: B B A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1015
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1017
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1018
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1019
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1020
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1021
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1022
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1023
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1024
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1025
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1026
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 553 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1027
Previous decisions: C B A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 553 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1028
Previous decisions: C B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1029
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1030
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
553 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 535 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1031
Previous decisions: C B A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1032
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1033
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1034
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1035
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1036
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1037
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1038
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1039
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1040
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1041
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1042
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1043
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 552 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1044
Previous decisions: A C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 552 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1045
Previous decisions: A C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1046
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1047
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
552 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1048
Previous decisions: A C A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1049
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1051
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1052
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1053
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1054
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1055
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1056
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1057
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1058
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1059
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1060
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 534 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1061
Previous decisions: B C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 534 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1062
Previous decisions: B C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1063
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1064
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
534 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1065
Previous decisions: B C A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1066
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1067
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1068
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1069
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1070
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1071
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1072
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1073
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1074
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1075
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1076
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1077
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 28 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -28 Mm3 = 572 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1078
Previous decisions: C C A
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 572 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1079
Previous decisions: C C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1080
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1081
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
572 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 554 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1082
Previous decisions: C C A C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1083
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1084
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1085
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1086
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1087
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1088
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1089
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1090
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1091
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1092
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1093
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1094
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 487 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1095
Previous decisions: A A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 487 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1096
Previous decisions: A A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1097
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1098
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
487 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1099
Previous decisions: A A B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1100
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1101
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1102
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1103
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1104
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1105
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1106
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1107
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1108
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1109
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1110
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1111
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 469 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1112
Previous decisions: B A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 469 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1113
Previous decisions: B A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1114
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1115
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
469 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1116
Previous decisions: B A B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1117
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1118
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1119
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1120
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1121
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1122
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1123
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1124
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1125
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1126
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1127
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1128
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 507 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1129
Previous decisions: C A B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 507 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1130
Previous decisions: C A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1131
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1132
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
507 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 489 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1133
Previous decisions: C A B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1134
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1135
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1136
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1137
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1138
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1139
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1140
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1141
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1142
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1143
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1144
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1145
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 501 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1146
Previous decisions: A B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 501 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1147
Previous decisions: A B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1148
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1149
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
501 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1150
Previous decisions: A B B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1151
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1152
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1153
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1154
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1155
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1156
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1157
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1158
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1159
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1160
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1161
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1162
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 483 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1163
Previous decisions: B B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 483 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1164
Previous decisions: B B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1165
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1166
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
483 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 465 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1167
Previous decisions: B B B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1168
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1169
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1170
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1171
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1172
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1173
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1174
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1175
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1176
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1177
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1178
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1179
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 521 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1180
Previous decisions: C B B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 521 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1181
Previous decisions: C B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1182
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1183
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
521 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 503 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1184
Previous decisions: C B B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1185
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1186
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1187
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1188
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1189
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1190
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1191
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1192
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1193
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1194
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1195
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1196
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 520 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1197
Previous decisions: A C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 520 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1198
Previous decisions: A C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1199
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1200
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
520 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1201
Previous decisions: A C B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1202
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1203
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1204
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1205
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1206
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1207
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1208
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1209
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1210
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1211
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1212
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1213
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1214
Previous decisions: B C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1215
Previous decisions: B C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1216
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1217
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1218
Previous decisions: B C B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1219
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1220
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1221
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1222
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1223
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1224
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1225
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1226
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1227
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1228
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1229
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1230
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 60 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -60 Mm3 = 540 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1231
Previous decisions: C C B
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 540 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1232
Previous decisions: C C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1233
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1234
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
540 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 522 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1235
Previous decisions: C C B C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1236
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1237
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1238
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1239
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1240
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1241
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1242
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1243
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 427 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1244
Previous decisions: A A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 427 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1245
Previous decisions: A A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1246
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1247
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
427 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 502 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1248
Previous decisions: A A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 502 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1249
Previous decisions: A A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1250
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1251
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
502 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1252
Previous decisions: A A C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1253
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1254
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1255
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1256
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1257
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1258
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1259
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1260
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 409 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1261
Previous decisions: B A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 409 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1262
Previous decisions: B A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1263
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1264
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
409 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 484 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1265
Previous decisions: B A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 484 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1266
Previous decisions: B A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1267
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1268
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
484 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 466 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1269
Previous decisions: B A C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1270
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1271
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1272
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1273
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1274
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1275
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1276
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1277
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 59 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -59 Mm3 = 447 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1278
Previous decisions: C A
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 447 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1279
Previous decisions: C A
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1280
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1281
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
447 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 522 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1282
Previous decisions: C A C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 522 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1283
Previous decisions: C A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1284
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1285
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
522 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 504 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1286
Previous decisions: C A C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1287
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1288
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1289
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1290
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1291
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1292
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1293
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1294
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 441 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1295
Previous decisions: A B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 441 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1296
Previous decisions: A B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1297
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1298
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
441 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 516 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1299
Previous decisions: A B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 516 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1300
Previous decisions: A B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1301
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1302
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
516 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1303
Previous decisions: A B C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1304
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1305
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1306
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1307
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1308
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1309
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1310
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1311
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 423 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1312
Previous decisions: B B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 423 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1313
Previous decisions: B B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1314
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1315
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
423 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 498 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1316
Previous decisions: B B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 498 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1317
Previous decisions: B B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1318
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1319
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
498 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
NEXT
1320
Previous decisions: B B C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1321
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1322
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1323
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1324
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1325
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1326
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1327
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1328
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 461 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1329
Previous decisions: C B
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 461 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1330
Previous decisions: C B
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1331
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1332
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
461 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 536 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1333
Previous decisions: C B C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 536 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1334
Previous decisions: C B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1335
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1336
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
536 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 518 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1337
Previous decisions: C B C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1338
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1339
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1340
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1341
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 37 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -37 Mm3 = 431 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1342
Previous decisions: A
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 431 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1343
Previous decisions: A
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1344
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1345
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
431 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 460 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1346
Previous decisions: A C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 460 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1347
Previous decisions: A C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1348
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1349
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
460 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 535 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1350
Previous decisions: A C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 535 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1351
Previous decisions: A C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1352
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1353
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
535 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1354
Previous decisions: A C C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1355
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1356
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1357
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1358
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 55 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -55 Mm3 = 413 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1359
Previous decisions: B
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 413 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1360
Previous decisions: B
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1361
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1362
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
413 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 442 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1363
Previous decisions: B C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 442 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1364
Previous decisions: B C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1365
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1366
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
442 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 517 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1367
Previous decisions: B C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 517 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1368
Previous decisions: B C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1369
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1370
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
517 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 499 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer got the job back!
NEXT
1371
Previous decisions: B C C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1372
It is April 1st.
The reservoir is at 450 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on April 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1373
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is April 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
37 38 45 35Release
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
55 58 60 57
A M J J
100
300
500
700
●
17 23 29 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1374
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on May 1st is:
April 1 volume + 18 Mm3 - April release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1375
April has gone by.
April inflow was: 18 Mm3
Our volunteer’s April release was: 17 Mm3
The volume on May 1st is therefore:
450 Mm3 +18 Mm3 -17 Mm3 = 451 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1376
Previous decisions: C
It is May 1st.
The reservoir is at 451 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on May 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1377
Previous decisions: C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18 22
36
5665
85
120
18
35
92
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is May 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
59 60 56Release
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 46 39
M J J
100
300
500
700
●
26 24 25
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1378
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on June 1st is:
May 1 volume + 55 Mm3 - May release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1379
May has gone by.
May inflow was: 55 Mm3
Our volunteer’s May release was: 26 Mm3
The volume on June 1st is therefore:
451 Mm3 +55 Mm3 -26 Mm3 = 480 Mm3
No overtop!
The volunteer still has a job!
Let’s go to the next forecast!
1380
Previous decisions: C C
It is June 1st.
The reservoir is at 480 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on June 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1381
Previous decisions: C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
79
92
110
23
35
52
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is June 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J J
100
300
500
700
●
28 30Release
J J
100
300
500
700
●
60 50
J J
100
300
500
700
●
45 35
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1382
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on July 1st is:
June 1 volume + 120 Mm3 - June release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1383
June has gone by.
June inflow was: 120 Mm3
Our volunteer’s June release was: 45 Mm3
The volume on July 1st is therefore:
480 Mm3 +120 Mm3 -45 Mm3 = 555 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer got fired!
Can it be fixed?
1384
Previous decisions: C C C
It is July 1st.
The reservoir is at 555 Mm3
You are given the inflow forecasts on July 1st.
Please fill in your release schedule. Remember: 15 Mm3 ≤ Release ≤ 60 Mm3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
Reservoir should be close to 500 Mm3 on August 1st.
If the volume exceeds 500 Mm3, you are fired.
NEXT
1385
Previous decisions: C C C
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
1921
28
M A M J J
For
ecas
t iss
ued
on th
e pr
evio
us m
onth
min (5%)
25%
50%
75%
max (95%)
It is July 1st.
And our volunteer?
Let’s see which release option
our volunteer will choose.
Option A Option B Option C
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
eR
eser
voir
volu
me
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
J
100
300
500
700
●
60Release
J
100
300
500
700
●
25
J
100
300
500
700
●
40
● Current reservoir volumeReservoir volume assuming inflow is median forecastReservoir volume assuming inflow is min/max forecast
1386
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
You can update your reservoir volume:
The volume on August 1st is:
July 1 volume + 22 Mm3 - July release = ?
Did you overtop your reservoir?
� NO, I still have my job.� YES, I got fired...
What about our volunteer?
1387
July has gone by.
July inflow was: 22 Mm3
Our volunteer’s July release was: 40 Mm3
The volume on August 1st is therefore:
555 Mm3 +22 Mm3 -40 Mm3 = 537 Mm3
Overtop!
The volunteer did not get the job back!
NEXT
1388
Previous decisions: C C C C
GAME OVERAugust 1st has arrived.If you did not overtop the reservoir, you still have a job and you are hired for the next season!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Observed inflows
Inflo
ws
in th
e re
serv
oir
● 5
● 18
● 55
● 120
● 22
M A M J J
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecast on April 1
For
ecas
t inf
low
vol
ume
● 5 81012 19
36
58
42
70
130
10
28
110
M A M J J
Res
ervo
ir vo
lum
e
Our volunteer's results
A M J August1st
100
300
500
700
●●
●
How did you like this experience as a decision-maker?
1389
