IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer ESPON 2.2.2....

IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural PlanningSabine Zillmer

ESPON 2.2.2.

Pre-accession aid impact analysis- Third Interim Report -

ESPON Seminar Nijmegen, 11-12 October 2004


Relation between Potentials and Pre-Accession Aid

GDP Unemployment

Socio-economic impacts

Methodological Overview

Potential Data Pre-Accession Aid Data

Data Collection

Potential Analysis Meta Analysis

Analysis of Regional Pre-Accession Aid

ESPON Database

Qualitative Impact Analysis (case

studies)

Location Quotients (& related to potentials)

Quantitative Impact Analysis

Policy Oriented Typologies


Preliminary Results – Typology Macro Level

• Change of relative position depends on national income levels and national performance

• Above average growth and low intervention level – capital regions of Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia

• Average and below average growth despite relatively high intervention level – mostly only in quite peripheral regions

• No region in group of highest intervention level with clearly above average income growth


Preliminary Results – Typology Meso Level

• Above national average growth with low intervention level – many capital and other centrally located regions and some (Western) border regions

• Below national average growth despite relatively high intervention level – fewer cases in mostly peripheral regions

Pure income impacts very limited on both spatial levels


Preliminary Results – Unemployment Development and EU Intervention

Latvia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

% regional PAA of national PAA

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te

1999

2002

Potenziell (2002)

Potenziell (1999)

Riga

Latgale

Vidzeme

Romania

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20


Un

emp

loym

entr

ate

1999

2002

Exponentiell (2002)

Exponentiell (1999)

Centru

Bucuresti

Sud-Est

Sud-Vest

Estonia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30


Un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te

1999

2002

Potenziell (2002)

Potenziell (1999)

Laane-Eesti

Pohja-Eesti

Kirde-Eesti


Preliminary Results – Role of Potentials

• Different potentials matter for income and unemployment developments to different extents

Income development Unemployment development

Population density Population density

Active population density Active population density

Sectoral employment structure Sectoral employment structure

Agglomeration (size) (Accessibility)

Institutional potential Institutional potential

• Other influences: initial unemployment and income; region types in some cases; not observed influences


Preliminary Results – Spatial Integration• Cross-border cooperation

- Programmes mostly focus on regional bottlenecks resulting from border situation, yet, often aim at improvements on level other than micro-level (e.g. transport linkages for agglomerations)

- 'Soft' measures of SPFs very effective in terms of socio-cultural integration, but: low importance of these measures in other programmes

- Positive effects for regional building of institutions' capacity where funds have not been too limited

- Focus on regional development rather than spatial integration

- Level of existing spatial integration tends to define scope of cross-border cooperation programmes and not the other way around

• Trans-national integration- Programmes address main bottlenecks and potentials common to respective macro-region

- Significant impacts on trans-national level not to be expected as of funds' limitation

- Existing integration level defines common fields of action

- Institution building and integration successful

- Unequal opportunities hamper spatial integration impacts in socio-economic terms – national vs. trans-national interests

- Regional rather than macro-regional character of many projects


Tentative Policy Recommendations – 3-Level Approach

• Macro-Level:

- support of productive investments with sustainable effects for regional economy

- creation of growth from economic centres (relatively high potential endowment) through competition oriented policy to expanding regions then creating spatial cohesion

- strengthen role of potential and weak MEGAs in New Member States and Candidate Countries – especially in CEE Triangle – through potential rather than priority orientation

• Micro-Level:

- regional SWOT – analytical base for concentrated regional measures

- improving regional institutional structures

• Meso-Level:

- utilisation of institutional achievements and their further enhancement

- consider national specifics in their translation for regional policies

- coordinated and integrative strategy for regions depending on their natural, social and economic endowment with potentials / bottlenecks


Tentative Policy Recommendations – Policy Packages

• Package 1 for major urban agglomerations: infrastructure linkages; innovation; sector structure

• Package 2 for Western border regions: human resources; innovation; cross-border integration

• Package 3 for old industrial regions: business restructuring; human resources; infrastructure modernisation; environment

• Package 4 for Eastern peripheral and rural regions: local SMEs; institution building; human resources

• Package 5 for island economies: environment; trans-national integration; economic diversification


Main Challenges

• Further improvements of data availability (SAPARD)

• Dealing with missing data

• Improving output of selective work packages (e.g. quantitative analysis)

• Completing ex-ante analysis

• Cluster analysis for uniting elements of potential analysis

• Synthesis – Bringing together results of all work packages and for all spatial levels

• Integration of priority 2 project results (sector policies)

IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer ESPON 2.2.2....

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