IRENA Membership
description
Transcript of IRENA Membership
Prospects for the African Power Sector
Asami MiketaInternational Energy Workshop, June 19-21, 2012
Cape Town, South Africa
IRENA Membership
Status 13. June, 2012
(96countires)(62 more countries)
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Promote the use of renewable energy to meet increasing global energy needs in the context of Sustainable Development
• Energy security• Decentralized access to energy• Job creation and economic growth• Negative health impacts of fossil fuels and traditional biomass• Reducing GHG emissions
Renewable energy sources supported: Biomass, Geothermal, Hydro, Ocean, Solar, Wind
Mandate
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Synthesising knowledge• Potential assessment (global resource mapping)• Renewable statistics and indicators• Technology briefs• Renewable technology cost assessment
Energy planning• Economic and technical assessment of renewable technology
deployment in an energy system• Capacity building
Promotion of dialogue for renewable deployment • Renewable readiness assessment• Sectoral renewable deployment roadmap• UN’s Sustainable Energy for All
Activities
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Policy database and analysis
Technology development and transfer• Technology standardization
• Patent database
• Project development support
Education and training support
Abu Dhabi Fund for Development
Activities
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Challenges in African power sector Access to Electricity
Sub-Sa
haran Afri
ca
Liberi
a
Rwanda
Sierra
Leone
Malawi
Niger
Congo DR
Tanzan
iaKenya
Leso
tho
Zambia
Togo
Benin
Equato
rial G
uinea
Swazi
land
Maurit
ania
Eritre
a
Gabon
Seneg
al
Nigeria
Sao Tome e
t Prin
cipe
Ghana
South
Africa
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PERC
ENT
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LACK
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OW
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Challenges in African power sectorReliability of power supply
Source: JRC9
Opportunities offered by renewable technologies
• Abundant resource potential for grid-connected system• Cost-competitive off-grid system• Flexible mini-gird system
Power generation in 2008620 TWh
616 kWh per person
Universal access in 20351670 TWh
1100 kWh per person
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Scenarios and Strategies for Africa Project
• Renewable resource potential• Cost development• Differentiated roles of renewable technologies for
centralized and decentralized electricity supply
used as inputs for economic optimization toolsSAPP model / WAPP model
inputs into priority investment decision / policy analysis
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Renewable Energy Technical Potentials
620 TWh generation150 GW capacity (2010)
Geothermal88 TWh/yr (7-15 GW)
Wind*3800 TWh/yr (1750 GW)
Concentrated Solar Power*4720 TWh/yr (2150 GW)
Solar Photovoltaic*6600 TWh/yr (2700 GW)
Hydro1850 TWh/yr (400 GW)
*land availability adjusted Map: BMU, 2009
HydroPV
CSPWind
HydroPV
CSPWind
HydroPV
CSPWind
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Hydro
PV
CSP
Wind
Hydro
PV
CSP
Wind
Geothermal
North
West
Central
East
South
TWh
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WindIn 2010, total installed capacity 1 GWTechnical potential 1750 GW• Egypt 7GW by 2020• Morocco 2GW by 2020• South Africa 8.4 GW by 2030
Investment costsEurope: 1,850-2,100 USD/kWIndia/China: 1,300-1,450 USD/kW
Assumptions for Africa2010: 2,000 USD/kW2030: 1,240-1,400 USD/kW
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Solar PV
In 2010, total installed capacity 64 MW CSP and 7.5 MW Solar PV (utility scale)Technical potential: 2150 GW (CSP) and 2750 GW (Solar PV)
World solar market
Investment cost in Europe:3,600-5,000 USD/kW in 20102,500 USD/kW in 2012
Assumptions for Africa: SPV2010: 3,500 USD/kW2030: 2,200-2,500 USD/kW
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Solar CSP
CSP: 2150 GW technical potential• Sudan 250 MW, South Africa 100 MW• DESERTEC 100 GW by 2050 (400MW CSP and 100 MW SPV in Morocco in 2012)
Parabolic trough collectorsUSD 4600 /kW
6 hr Storage plus 2500-5200 /kW
Solar towerUSD 6300-7500 /kW
15 hr Storage plus 3000/kW Assumptions for Africa:
CSP no storage2010: 4500 USD/kW2030: 2700-3000 USD/kW
With storage2010: 11000 USD2030: 6200-7300 USD
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Large Hydro
• 24GW installed in 2010 • Technical potential: 400GW• Economic potential: 200GW
DRC: Inga III (5GW), Grand Inga Dam (39GW) Ethiopia: Millennium Hydropower project (5.25GW)
1 10 100 1000 100000
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12000 West
MW
USD/KW
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LCOE: West Africa
Crude oil price: 100 USD/bbl HFO 12.9 USD/GJ, Gas domestic and imported 8.5 and 11 USD/GJ, Coal domestic and imported 2 and 3 USD/GJ 17
T&D costs
• Heavy industry 15 USD/MWh (7% losses)• Urban 50 USD/MWh (15% losses)• Rural 100 USD/MWh (20% losses)
LCOE including TD costs to rural area (120-150 $/MWh additional to LCOE of technologies)
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Decentralized Options• Diesel generator (1,070 USD/kW)• Solar PV (5,000 USD/kW) • Solar PV with buttery (7,000 USD/kW)• Small hydro (4,000 USD/kW)
Source: JRC
Assumptions for Africa in 2030
SPV: 2,600-2,900 USD/kW SPV+battery: 3,600-4,100 USD/kW Small hydro: 3,300-3,600 USD/kW
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Decentralized OptionsLCOE for decentralized options VS grid connected options
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SAPP model16% RE with 15% hydro
→ 35% RE with 19% hydro
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WAPP model22% RE all hydro in 2010
→ 53% RE with 33% hydro
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IRENA’s contributions to the modeling community• Improve the representation of renewable energy in
modeling/scenario work• Narrow the data gasps• Bring the insights from the community to the attention of
the decision makers
You are invited to the IRENA’s special modeling session today at 17:30
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