Iraq Failing to Disarm Quality of Information Check

Colin Powell: “The material I will present to you come from a variety of sources. Some are U.S. sources and some are

those of other countries. Some are the sources are technical, such as intercepted telephone conversations and

photos taken by satellites. Other sources are people who have risked their lives to let the world know what Saddam

Hussein is really up to.”

Agenda• Introduction• Accuracy source review• Identify information sources that appear most critical or

compelling• Check for sufficient corroboration of critical reporting• Ensure that any recalled reporting is identified and flagged

by other analysts• Reexamine previously dismissed information in light of new

facts or circumstances that cast it in a different light. • Consider whether ambiguous information has been

intercepted and caveated properly• Indicate a level of confidence that analysts can place in

sources.

Accuracy Source Review• Phone call between two senior officers, a colonel and a

brigadier general from Iraq’s Republican Guard. • Phone call between an officer from the Republican

Guard Headquarters issuing an instruction to an officer in the field

• Paper evidence from Iraqi nuclear scientist homes• Hard drives of computers in Iraqi weapons facilities

replaced• Satellite Images• Iraqis have never accounted for all of the biological

weapons they admitted they had. • Eyewitness accounts of biological weapons factories

on wheels and on trains.

Identify information sources that appear most critical or compelling

• Satellite Images- “Inside that facility are special guards and special equipment” – Decontamination vehicle– Cleaned bunkers before U.N. officials arrived

• Phone calls between Iraq’s Republican Guard about modified vehicles and eyewitness accounts that they exist.

• Iraqi Nuclear Scientist – 2k pages of documents, some related to Iraq’s nuclear program

• Human sources that Iraqis moved hard drives and weapons of mass destruction to keep them from inspectors

Check for sufficient corroboration of critical reporting

• Confirmation that the biological truck and train factories exist: phone calls and eyewitnesses

• Confirmation of Nuclear bomb program: Iraqi nuclear scientist home search, human resources, regime only allowed interviews with inspectors with the presence of an Iraqi official. Iraqis have never accounted for all biological weapons, no records of destroying weapons, covert attempts to acquire aluminum tubes, magnets

Ensure that any recalled reporting is identified and flagged by other

analysts• Multiple analysis tools:

Phone callsSatellite imagesHuman sourcesPaper trailsSaddam Hussein- never accounted for weaponryU.N. Inspectors

Consider whether ambiguous information has been intercepted

• Telephone conversations – Forbidden ammo clean up

• Paper evidence – some related to nuclear program.

• Human sources

Indicate a level of confidence that analysts can place in sources

Thank You!