IranYesterday, Today, Tomorrow

A senior official in an important American political centre, said: “Instead of bombs, send them miniskirts.” He is right.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,

Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

David Antoš, Josef Stráský, Karel Kohout, Michal Paulus

Overview

Religion situation Recent history Current issues with the „Western world“ „Western world“ reaction Summary

Iran - an important part ofMuslim world

Zarathustra

Basic original division of Islam

Sunna Shia Kharijism

dark green Shiiteslight green Sunnites

Potential leaders of Muslim world I

Turkey Egypt Saudi Arabia Iran To some extent

– Pakistan– Indonesia

Potential leaders of Muslim world II

• Turkey– Westernization

• Egypt– economic situation

• Saudi Arabia– small population

• Iran– different religion and ethnicity

• Pakistan– distance

• Indonesia– distance

Before 1925

Until 1925 – contest for power – Britain and Russia

Difficulty with integration into a world economy Reaction of Shi´ite Clergy 1925 Reza Shah Pahlavi crowned

1925 – 1979: Pahlavi Dynasty

Time of– educational– judicial reforms

Iran was moving to a modern state

Reduced the influence of religious classes

Selective form of secularization and modernization

White Reform and Muhamad P.

1960 – 1979 White revolution

– ambitious program of social, political and economic reforms

Political cooperation with Western countries (US)

Entry of western capital and culture

Protest – against islamic values

Iranian (Islamic) Revolution

1979– Islamic principles of Iran´s

society came to the surface– Ayatollah Ruhollah

Khomeini became leader of the Islamic Republic

– Strict, autocratic, theocratic regime

– Ideology of export the islamic revolution

– Time of chaos and the Iran-Iraq war

Time of Detachment

Khomeini´s Death– space for the

moderates– normalization

of the country

90´s - Attempts of dialog x US pressure– (misunderstanding the real situation)

1997 – 2005– Mohammad Khatami (President)– Tried to lead the country more to the West

2005 - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad elected– Country left west-course – crashed on islamic

roots

The Second Islamic Revolution

– Emancipation, self-determination of religious-based culture

– Historically under pressure of non-Iranians rulers

Iran - economy

Semideveloped country Chronic problems: high unemployment, budget

deficit Oil – 80% of export, 25% of GDP, but 1% of

labour force Agriculture, car industry, defence industry,

electronics

Economic relations I

Major commercial partners – China, Germany, Japan, Russia – from 1950 until 1978 the United States

– Iran and Libya Sanctions Act

16,9

11,2

6

5,8

5,7

4,6

4,4

4,1

0 5 10 15 20

Japan

China

Italy

South Korea

Turkey

Netherlands

France

South Africa

percentage of $63.18 billion total export

13,9

8,4

8,3

7,1

6,3

5,4

4,9

0 5 10 15

Germany

UAE

China

Italy

France

South Korea

Russia

percentage of $45.48 billion total import

Economic relations II

South-south integration including– Syria, Cuba, Venezuela, China, India, South

AfricaObserver status at the WTO since 2005– United States blocked

joining the WTOEconomic isolation on

international scene

Nuclear programme 1950 - 1979

Launched in 1950s with help of the US

Europe-US-Iran cooperation

1976 president Gerald Ford offered a complete 'nuclear fuel cycle

Nuclear programme 1979 – 1990´s

Immediate withdrawal of European/US companies 1984 - Bushehr hit by Iraqi air strikes cooperation with

– Argentina– China– Russia

Nuclear programme 2000 - 2006

Until 2004 inspections of IAEA

Uranium enrichment 2006 IAEA reported

Iran to UN Security Council

First sanctions

1979 - USA impose sanction after embassy ambush

1984– all loans from international financial

institutions banned– prohibited weapons sales and all

assistance 1987 - U.S. prohibits import from Iran 1995 - Clinton - total embargo on

dealings 1996 - Iran and Libya Sanctions Act

(ILSA)

Sanctions (continued)

Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of 1996 (ILSA) denial of Export-Import Bank assistance loans over 10 mil. USD prohibited denial of export licenses to the violating

company, ban on imports of the violating company

2004 scientific isolation

2006 Iranian bank is barred from

dealing with financial institutions

...?

UN sanctions

Recent event 2006-12-23 UN Security Council Resolution 1737

Imposed because of uranium enrichment program

Freezing assets of companies involved in nuclear and ballistic missile programmes

Cannot be enforced militarily 2007-4-24 UN Security Council Resolution 1747

Tightens the sanctions Bans arms sales Steps up the freeze on assets

Current situation - overview

US companies cannot invest more than 20 mil. USD in Iranian oil / gas sector of industry. Exceptions:

carpets caviare pistachios dried fruit

Only relaxation – 12-2003 - earthquake in Bam. 1998 - TotalFinaElf, Gazprom, and Petronas

were granted a waiver by US. 2004 - Lukoil - exploration bids on oil blocks.

Effects of sanctions

Iran is relatively unharmed (supplies of oil) Industry - similar to that during socialism in

Eastern Europe R&D dependant sectors – e.g pharmaceutics –

95% Iranian-only production Possible second oil market – with Euros instead

of USD

Criticism of sanctions

Isolation - further radicalism Feeling of being threatened - nuclear program Safety of other countries – spare parts for

planes Double standard

ILSA vs Arab League boycott of Israel Iranians rely on the government

Further information

Interesting blog:– ahmadinejad.ir

“Kateřina xxx Dear Mr. Ahmadinejad. Your blog is wonderful!! I want to tell

you, that you are good president. Dont believe, that people in Europe are against Iran and you. Most people are with you, but our government are against, cos they are bus-boys of USA. I support you, you ideas are good. I with you. Good luck.”

Verdana 36

Georgia 24– Georgia 24

• Georgia 24 Zelený rám nahoře přesahuje snímek,

záměrně, blok nadpisu je roztažený od horního okraje stránky po začátek zelených ornamentů

Červený rám je viditelný pouze po konec ornamentů

Rám s textem je 1,52 cm vodorovně od levého horního okraje, 4,5 cm svisle od levého horního