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Iran and its Revolution after 27 years

George Mason UniversityMarch, 6, 2006

Abbas Maleki

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Different Approaches to Iran’s Islamic Revolution

Conspiracy TheoryEconomic ApproachTheory on ModernizationAutocracyReligion

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My View

Revolutions means uncertainty Religion had a critical influence to Iran’s RevolutionAutocracy, Modernization and Open political situation were accelerators.

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Iran’s Strengths

CultureGeopoliticsReligionPolitics Mineral ResourcesHuman Resources

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CultureIran’s Long History

7000 years of written historyIran’s Social Attitudes

honestyhospitalityanxious to knowledge

Iran’s CivilizationarchitectureartLiterature

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Iran and its Subregions

Middle EastPersian GulfSouth West AsiaCentral Asia, Caucasus, and AfghanistanCaspian Basin

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Religion

Islam, Christianity, Judaism, ZoroasterMost of Iranians are MuslimAmong Muslims, majority are Shi’ia,

minorities, Sunni

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Islam Definition by KoranEtymologically, Islam means surrender and obedienceIslam is the religion which invites men toward this end-since its general purpose is the surrenderof man to the laws governing the Universeand men, -with the result that through this surrender he worships only the One God and obeysonly His command.

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What is Shi‘ia

Means literally partisan or followerRefers to those who consider the succession to the Prophet Muhammad, to be the special right of his family.in the field of the Islamic sciences and culture, Shi‘ia follows the school of the Household of the Prophet.

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Shi’ia Belief

On returning from the last pilgrimage to Mecca on the way to Medina at a site called Ghadire Khumm, the Prophet chose Ali as his successorbefore the vast crowd that was accompanying him.

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Tradition (Hadith)

In Thaghalayn tradition Prophet says, “I leave two things of value amidst you in trust which if you hold on to, you will never go astray:-Koran-Members of my householdThese will never be separated untilthe Day of Judgment.”

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The History of Shi’ia (1)

First caliph was selected through the vote of the majority of the companions,Second caliph by the will and testament of the first,Third caliph by a six-man council whose members and rulers of procedure were organized and determined by second caliph,During the third caliph, his relatives in Damascus (Umayyad), began to be lax in applying moral principles in government.In 656, people rebelled and after a few days of siege and fighting, third caliph was killed.

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The History of Shi’ia (2)Ali became Fourth caliphCaliphate of Ali lasted about 4 years and 9 monthDuring his period he followed ways of Prophet and brought conditions back to their original state.He forced the resignation of all incompetent political elementsHe began a major transformation of a revolutionary nature which caused him innumerable difficulties.

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The History of Shi’ia (3)

Ali continued his radically different type of government based more on righteousness than political efficacyHis oppositions claim they wanted to revenge the death of third caliph, instigated bloody wars during all of Ali’s caliph.Finally, Ali was assassinated in KufaMosque. His shrine is in Najaf in Iraq.

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The History of Shi’ia (4)

His son, Hasan, was recognized by the Shi’ia as second Imam and caliph.But Mu’awiyah (Umayyad) marched with his army toward Iraq, and began to wage war against Hasan.Finally, he was able to force Hasan to hand the caliphate over to him on the condition caliphate would be returned to him after the death of Mu’awiyah.Hasan was killed by poisoning.

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The History of Shi’ia (5)Hasan brother, Hussein became ImamMu’awiyah’s son, Yezid, became caliph at 680Yezid massacred Hussein in the most atrocious manner along with his children, relatives and friends in Karbala (Iraq)He displayed the heads of grandson of Prophet in different cities.The element of martyrdom is referred to this event which was happened in 10th of Muharram 680 (Ashoura)

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The History of Shi’ia (6)

Tragic death of third Imam, Hussein, played a major role in the spread of Shiism, especially in regions of away from caliphate center, such as Iraq, Yemen and Persia.Before the end of first Islamic Century and 40 years after death of Hussein, Shi’ia took advantage of the internal differences in Umayyad Empire and began to organize themselves.

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The History of Shi’ia (7)

In 13th century, Abbasid gained the caliphate in the name of Prophet’s family, and at the beginning showed some kindness to Shi’ia. But soon they began to follow unjust ways of the Umayyad. Shi’ia learned to live for the most part in hiding and followed their religious life secretly without external manifestation.

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The History of Shi’ia (8)In 14th century, Shiism able to breath once again,Many scientific and philosophical books were translated from Greek, Syriac and other languages into Arabic.People eagerly studied intellectual and rational sciencesShi’ia theologians and scholars did their utmost to further scholarly activities and propagate Shi’ia teaching.

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The History of Shi’ia (9)In 15th century, Abbasid government declined, the Buyids, who were Shi’ia had the great influence in Persia and Baghdad.Most of the Arabian peninsula was Shi’ia except big cities.The Fatimids, who were Ismaili, conquered Egypt and organized a caliphate for 2 centuries.But, Shi’ism never became the official religion of any Muslim State.

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The History of Shi’ia (10)

In the 16th century, Ismail, a Shiite youth, began a revolt in Ardabil (Iran), with the aim of establishing an independent Shi’ia country.He succeeded in forming Iran, piece by piece in to a country and in making Shiism the official religion in his kingdom

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Divisions within ShiismTwelve-Imam Shi’ia

-Majority of Shi’ia-Alavis

Ismailism:-Nazariah (Agha Khan)-Mosta’liah

ZaydismDoruzMoghanna

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Twelve-Imam Shi’ia

There are 12 ImamThe first was Ali, son of the law of ProphetThe 12th is Mahdi, who was born in 872 in Samarra (Iraq), He was hidden from public view.His occultation will continue as long as God wills it.Mahdaviat: Doctrine of Hope in Shi’ia

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Religious Thought

There are three methods of religious thought in Shi’ia:

1. The path of external and formal aspect of religion (Shari’a)

2. The path of intellectual understanding3. The path of spiritual comprehension

achieved through sincerity (Ikhlas) in obeying God

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The path of external and formal aspect of religion (Shari'a)

Verbal expressions such-Believe in God and his Prophet-Perform the prayers

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The path of intellectual understanding

The intellectual path can discover the problems connected with faith, ethics, and general principles governing practical questions

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The path of spiritual comprehension achieved through sincerity

Men who have reached this knowledge have cut themselves off from everything and forgotten everything but GodThe nature of man has tendency to “divine attraction (Jazabeh)”Ali was the first Gnostic man (Sufi)

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Imitation (Taghlid)Acquiring knowledge of the principles of religion is possible to a certain extent for everyoneBut acquiring detailed knowledge of the injunctions and laws is not possible for every Muslim. Only a few persons have the capacity for demonstrative jurisprudence.The duty of rest of the people is to seek guidance from capable and worthy men of learning, who are called mujtahids and faqihs. This act of following Mujtahids is called imitation or taghlid

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Jihad (Holy War) in Shi'ia

There are only two types of Jihad:I-Preliminary Jihad: -expansion of Islam to other regions-It is the responsibility of Prophet and 12 Imams to do that.

-It is rejected in occultation.II-Defensive Jihad:-prevent enemies to attack to the State-Permitted in occultation period

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Terrorism and Suicide

Terrorism is prohibited because of the Koran Verse: “If you kill one person, it likes to kill all of society”.Suicide is forbidden again by Koran: “Don’t destroy your life by your hands”

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Shi’ite Concepts influenced on Iran’s Revolution

AashouraAashoura: The element of : The element of martyrdommartyrdomTaghlidTaghlid: Following : Following MujtahidsMujtahids or or imitationimitationMahdaviiatMahdaviiat: Occultation, Doctrine : Occultation, Doctrine of Hope in Shiof Hope in Shi’’iaiaDefensive Jihad: Protection of Defensive Jihad: Protection of Dar Dar ulul--IslamIslam

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politics

Political SystemForeign PolicyInternal PolicyDefense PolicySecurity PolicyEnergy PolicyEconomic Policy

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Political System

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Iran’s Foreign Policy Decision Making

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Islamic Foreign PolicyProtection of Dar ul-Islam: Glory, Protection of Independence and Rejection of Dominance: Interest and Rules of Ability, No Harm and Avoidance: Establishment of Relations, Coexistence and Cooperation with otherCountries: Support for the Rights of Muslims and the Oppressed of the World andStruggle against Oppression:Invitation and Propagation: Gaining the Endearment of others

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3 Scenarios for Iran’s FutureExpansionismIsolationismPro Development

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Expansionism

Hegemony in the regionIntervene in the neighboring countriesCrisis oriented policies

Driving Forces: -Radical forces inside-Extremists in the region-Growing of authoritarian school of thoughts inside

Results: -Consensus against Iran-Military attack on Iran-lack of confidence with the Islamic states

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Isolationism

Cut of vital links with abroadDeterioration of economic situationReturn to pre-information age

Driving Forces:-US administration’s behavior -Europe’s pressure in diplomaticnegotiations

-Anti-reformist ideology inside

Results: -Increasing gap between Iran and the restof the World

-Lack of access to the Iran’s resourcesadvantages as: Minerals

Human

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Pro Development Scenario

Showing Iran as a developing country with huge enthusiasm to be a developed country.

Driving Forces:-Intention of the peoples-Historical and social backgrounds

Results: Iran would be an Islamic Country with-modern technology-social maturity-democratic political system-interactive foreign policy

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What would be Iran after 20 Years?

Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document Says:The first country in the region at economic, scientific and technology levelsline of thinking, i.e. the prioritization of becoming an “economic and technological power” over other policy areas, is very evident in Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document

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Desired Iranian Society

for the year 2025:Secure, independent and powerfulProgressiveKnowledge-basedEconomic growth based on a large portion of social capitalGrowth of social capital through educationSociety capable of steady economic capacity building

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IRAN has

1% of the world’s population, 7% of the world’s natural reserves including-10% of the global proven oil

reserves -16% of the world’s natural gas

resources.130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons) 27 trillion cm gaswhich means $3000 billions

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Iran’s Foreign Relations:Conceptual Challenges to 2010

Iran-US RelationsIran-EU RelationsIraqAfghanistan Persian Gulf StatesRegional CrisesCaspian legal regime Oil price

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Iran-US RelationsLeadershipIsolationEngagement Sticks and CarrotsSticksMilitary Attack

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US military around IranUS military around Iran

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Iran-EU Relations

Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)Nuclear NegotiationsEnergy CharterINOGATETRASCECA

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Iran and Europe

Membership of each central or Eastern Europe countries to EU means a new demand for Energy.Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, most important of them: Russia, Iran and Qatar.In the Cold War era, with political motivation, Europe preferred to follow the Soviet gas pipeline instead of the cheap and costless Iranian gas.

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Iran and Europe (2)

-An expanded pipeline consortium with governments participation in the Caspian -Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran (KTI) is one option (TotalFinaElf Project)-Azerbaijan, Iran (Tabriz), Turkey (Ceyhan).Dialogue on Human RightsCollective Security in Iran’s Subregions:

-Persian GulfCaucasus

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Iran-Iraq

Treaty of Neighborhood and Governmental Borders between Iran and Iraq (1975)

-Oppositions-Border delimitations-Thalweg

Shared oil reservesPilgrimage Regional Security: GCC+3

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Iraqi Oil & Gas Fields

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Iraq is the world’s best resource play, though with political risk

Iraq is the lowest cost oil producerPolitical difficulties give others access to the Iraqi oil opportunity

Now dangerous for oil majors

Iraq is crucial to the world’s energy future

Only question is how and when reserves are developed

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Iraq is critical to the world’s energy future

Iraq is the third largest oil province worldwide with 115 billion barrels of proven reserves and up to 300 billion barrels of possible reserves.Post-war production collapsed to circa 2 million barrels daily, despite the UN lifting sanctions, but may rise to 9 million barrels within a decade.Operating costs in Iraq are about $1per barrel.

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Persian Gulf States

3 Iranian’s islandsThe problem of IdentityOPEC CooperationOil and Gas Cooperation:

-Shared Fields-New Pipelines

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Afghanistan

Iran’s share of Hirmand riverShi'a CommunityPersian CivilizationPersian Language countries OrganizationAccess to China

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Regional Crises

Nagorno KarabakhExtremists activities in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and…Local development in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan,…

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Paul Gobel’s proposal on Nagorno Karabakh

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Caspian legal regime

Caspian Seabed ResourcesEnvironmentFisheryTransportationAviationDemilitarization

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PIPELINE ROUTES: AN IMPRESSION

Bottlenecks andPipelines

11 oil pipeline projects/ 6 operational

6 natural gas pipeline projects/2 operational.

Of particular notice:

CPCBTCTCP

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Neka-Ray capacities (barrels per day)

First Phase: 40 000Second Phase: 170 000Third Phase: 370 000Fourth Phase: 500 000

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Neka-Ray Old and New Pipeline

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Caspian Oil Terminals and Neka

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Counties with Oil Reserves > 1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse

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The Main Targets of the Fourth Five-Year Plan (2005-2010)

To achieve surplus oil production of 1 million bpd by 2010 Replacement of additional capacity to annual depletion rates (350 000 b/d) As well as a daily gas production of 250 mcm by 2010.Reducing domestic consumption, so that more crude can be opened up for export.To maintains the Oil Stabilization Fund (OSF).In pursuit of long term goals, oil recovery factor is due to increase to 27% by 2010.

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The Main Targets of the Fifth Five-Year Plan (2010-2015)

Reaching a crude oil production capacity of 5.5 mbb/d by 2010 and 7 by 2015Producing 900 mcm per day of natural gas by 2015Producing annually $20 billion petrochemicals Concentration on energy-intensive industries (with the aim of them consuming a minimal 100 mcm per day of gas), so as to promote added-value production.Attracting foreign investment and resources and providing them with the support necessary to achieve the needed $100 billion investments in the petroleum sector by 2015.Increasing refining capacity by about 1 million bpd, with a concentration on gas condensates and very heavy crude, with the ultimate goal of reaching 2.3 million bpd of refining capacity

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The Ways for Increasing Capacity

Since early 2004, NIOC has started a process which will eventually lead to the tendering of 100 oil exploration blocks through international tenders. From an economic point of view, successful exploration projects will increase the country’s total reserves and in turn promote its international status.

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A look at the energy sectorIran has very ambitious plans in oil, gas and petrochemicals;Though the strategy on oil production capacity increase remains a key debate topic, major investments in this sector are inevitable;The legal framework remains an issue, though slow changes are taking shape;Iran’s focus in the next decade will be on gas and also gas-intensive industries;Next important event: Restructuring of NIOC and consequent corporatization of the energy sector companies.

20Power Generation

25Petrochemicals

45Gas

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Investment Volume (in $ billion)Sector

Investments needed in Iran’s energy sector 2005-2020

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Conclusions

Iran’s future is related to the perception of Government and also Nation to the realities of the new world.International situation is not proper for countries who are lazy to attract investment.The world main powers become more security oriented than economic or development orientedForeign Policy is “Politics among Nations” don’t forget it

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Conclusions (2)

The Persian Gulf contains over 65% of the world’s “proven” reserves, and stability in these countries, security of oil fields and routes of transportation in the region are of paramount importance to oil market.Pacific Asia’s growing energy needs suggests that its close energy ties with and dependence on the Gulf will further grow in the foreseeable future. The growing energy interdependence between the two regions is likely to have political and strategic ramifications.

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Energy resource Energy resource peripheryperiphery

Energy demand Energy demand heartlandheartland

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Conclusion (3)Iran needs three major issues: -Investment-Technology-Management Increasing oil and gas capacityRenewables and substitution to the domestic oil consumptionReviewing framework of oil contractsPrivatization

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The major concerns on Iran’s future

Priority of other scenarios than development scenario in IranNumber of uncertainties could slow the trend of development in Iran such-foreign threats (US or Israel attack)-domestic turmoil -discouragement of new investment

(improper contract frame) -Unattractive situation for human

resources Deterioration of Iran’s Image in world public opinion

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Thank YouAbbas_maleki@harvard.edu